2014 NFL Final Mock Draft

The Draft finally is here. After an extra two weeks the fatigue levels for NFL enthusiasts, scouts and execs are at critical levels. All of that will be go when the commissioner walks onto the stage and announces the first overall pick.
Here is my final mock draft. It contains a lot of trade scenarios to make it semi realistic to give an idea of how the draft could turn out. This mock draft is me trying to think how each individual team will deal with the draft as it unfolds. As a result there is a lot of movement as I think there will be tonight.

1. Houston Texans- Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina

The Texans really have done a good job hiding who they have on top of their board. It does seem likely though they go with the safe pick in Clowney unless they get a trade deal they can't refuse. Their need at QB is glaring but perhaps they get lucky and see Teddy Bridgewater drop to them at No.33. I personally think they should be looking to grab Mike Glennon off the Bucs for their 3rd round pick. He had a solid rookie season and fits the QB traits that Bill O'Brien likes.

2. St Louis Rams- Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn

The Rams have been making some of the biggest smokescreens in terms of interest in Johnny Manziel, Khalil Mack, Sammy Watkins. I don't believe teams will fall for it and so the Rams will have to take the player they wanted need in Robinson. He can slide into guard in the beginning and help protect Sam Bradford as well as become a mauler in the run game. It's him or Jake Matthews for the Rams, if not I don't think Les Snead is going to last much longer in his job. They simply must protect their QB to have any chance of competing in the NFC West.

3. Atlanta Falcons (trade with Jacksonville)- Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo

The Falcons give up the No.6, No. 68 and 2015 2nd round pick to move up three spots to grab Mack. I really hope for Falcons fans that they just stay put and grab a tackle but I just don't think GM Dimitroff can help himself. Mack is a great prospect who won't get out of the Top 5 but is the value here for the Falcons? Players like Dee Ford, Demarcus Lawrence and Jeremiah Attaochu could be around at their next pick at No.37 while the tackles available will be thin by that stage.

4. Cleveland Browns- Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M

I still think the Browns have an interest in Bridgewater but they may use their second pick to grab him. Evans is a red zone threat who complements Josh Gordon better than Sammy Watkins in those terms. The reports of Johnny Manziel going here have never made any sense to me.

5. Buffalo Bills (trade with Oakland)- Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M

The Bills give up the No.9, 73 and 2015 2nd rd pick to move up and grab Matthews who will help protect E.J Manuel. The talk of them moving up to No.1 for Clowney is smokescreen. Their O Line didn't receive enough criticism last year in pass protection and opening up holes in the running game.

6. Jacksonville Jaguars- Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson

Jaguars grab the WR they need to replace Justin Blackmon who won't return from his suspension in a hurry.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M

The first QB off the board goes and the crowd will go crazy at Radio City. The Bucs have been linked with Manziel for the last month despite Mike Glennon having a good rookie season last year. They really should be focusing on the O Line which was underwhelming last year. Lovie Smith doesn't seem to pay much attention to that if his Bears teams are any indication though.

8. New York Giants (trade with Minnesota)- Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan

The Giants give up the No.12 and 74 picks to get Lewan. It sounds like the Giants aren't interested in TE Eric Ebron. Aaron Donald is another option here but I think the Giants focus on fixing a porous O line. LT Will Beatty was ineffective last year and is injury prone.

9. Oakland Raiders- Aaron Donald, DT, Penn State

The Raiders go best player available with the Donald who did everything in his power in the draft process to show he is worth a Top 10 selection. Provides a interior pass rush in a division with Peyton Manning and Andy Reid's pass heavy offence.

10. Miami Dolphins (trade with Detroit)- Zack Martin, OT/G, Notre Dame

The Dolphins give up the No.19, and 50 pick to move up and grab Martin. The early selections of the three top OT's means teams with O Line help like the Dolphins may have to trade up. If the Dolphins don't address their O Line in the first that would be one of the bigger shocks of the draft. Zack Martin can play either guard or tackle and is a high character player which is more important for Miami for obvious reasons.

11. San Francisco 49ers (trade with Tennessee Titans)- Odell Beckham Junior, WR, LSU

The 49ers trade up big, giving up No. 30, 56, 94 and 129 to the Titans to grab Beckham. This trade makes sense for both teams. The Titans are short of picks in this deep draft and the 49ers have too many picks to use. The 49ers may look to select a CB here instead like Kyle Fuller but Odell Beckham is a great prospect considering Michael Crabtree is reaching the end of his contract and Anquan Boldin can't last forever.

12. Minnesota Vikings- Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan St

Mike Zimmer likes playing nickle a lot so he can't have enough cornerbacks. The Vikings aren't entirely impressed with the top QB options by the sound of things. Maybe they are happy with Matt Cassell as a stop gap for one year while they develop a mid round pick like Logan Thomas or Tom Savage.

13. Arizona Cardinals (trade with St Louis)- Blake Bortles, QB, UCF

Cardinals give up the No.20, 84 and a 2015 2nd Rd to the Rams to grab their QB of the future. If the Cardinals are that interested in Bortles I can't seem them sitting at No.20 and hope he falls to them.

14. Chicago Bears- Ha Ha Clinton Dix, S, Alabama.

The best safety prospect is left on the board for the team with the biggest need, too easy.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers- Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech

Ike Taylor's days as a shutdown corner are over, time for an heir. Fuller is a physical but sound technician who can learn off the Taylor the nuances of the position. Rashede Hagemann has been linked here a lot but the secondary needs some serious infusion of youth.

16. Philadelphia Eagles (trade with Dallas)- Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA

The Eagles give up the No.22 and 86 picks to grab Barr. Chip Kelly has been trying hard to trade for Miami's Dion Jordan without success. He really wants that athletic speed rusher for his defence, Barr is best speed option in this draft. The Cowboys are looking for any type of trade back despite the fact they need pass rush help.

17. Baltimore Ravens- Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina

The Ravens just wait for value to drop to them, Ebron is a perfect addition to Kubiak's offence which uses TE's heavily in the passing game. Will be a problem down the seam's of defences if he can focus on catching the ball consistently. Right tackle is another option here with prospects like Morgan Moses and Jawuan James.

18. New York Jets- Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon St

The Jets need to give Geno Smith every chance to prove he can succeed in the NFL. Despite the addition of Eric Decker they need someone opposite him. Cooks is a fast and dangerous with the ball in his hands. Can play outside and in the slot. The crowd could lose their minds if they decide to go CB here but it wouldn't be surprising.

19. Detroit Lions- Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville

I just struggle to believe that the Lions will invest in CB this early when they invested in Darius Slay and Bill Bentley in the 2nd and 3rd rounds respectfully last year. Safety is a bigger issue where the addition of James Ideghibo is not a solution, he's a rotation/special teams player at best. Pryor would bring a physical element to the secondary that the Lions have been missing.

20. St Louis Rams- Ryan Shazier, OLB, Ohio State

The Rams need help in the secondary but Fisher may wait till Day 2 to address that area. Shazier will fill the WLB position and help create one of the fastest front sevens in the NFL.

21. Cleveland Browns (trade with Green Bay)- Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville

Browns give up the No.26 and 71st pick to stop the fall of Bridgewater. Rumours that the Chiefs and the Bengals are interested in Bridgewater push the Browns to move ahead of them.

22. Tennessee Titans (trade with Dallas)- Rashede Hagemann, DT, Minnesota

Titans move back up the first round to give Ray Horton a Calais Campbell like DT to work with. Give up the No.30, 94 and 129 to move ahead of the Chiefs. Hagemann is one of the bigger boom/bust prospects in this years draft.

23. Oakland Raiders (trade with the Chiefs)- Derek Carr, QB, Fresno

The Raiders beat the Jaguars to Carr by giving up their No.36, 73 and the Bills 2015 2nd rd pick to move up. I don't like Carr as a prospect but the Raiders are trying. Oakland fans are going to find out very quickly that Matt Schaub is not the answer. The Chiefs are an ideal trade back team as they only have six picks and are missing a 2nd round pick thanks to the Alex Smith trade.

24. Cincinnati Bengals- Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State

Best player available approach for the Bengals, they need an infusion of new CB blood ad Roby has the best physical tools of this class. Has red flags but that hasn't stopped the Bengals in the past.

25. San Diego Chargers- Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State

Gilbert falls due to his lack of physicalness and his unwillingness to tackle. Has the speed and change of direction to cover on the outside though which is important against a passing attack like the Broncos. The Chargers need any sort of the infusion in the secondary.

26. Green Bay Packers- C.J Mosley, LB, Alabama

The Packers drop back and still get one of the best linebacker prospects this year. Mosley could very well drop to the backend of the first round due to injury concerns. Will be an instant impact starter for the Packers and can move around the line.

27. New Orleans Saints- Marcus Martin, C, USC

With the lack of center prospects I can see Martin or Colorado States Weston Richburg slipping into the back of the first. The Saints have a big hole there currently. They could also go CB or WR here depending on the way the draft unfolds.

28. Carolina Panthers- Joel Bitonio, OT/G, Nevada

Carolina have the biggest holes in the most spots in the NFL with LT, CB and No 1 & 2 WR positions. Joel Bitonio has been linked with them along with Morgan Moses and Jawuan James. The Panthers have to protect Cam Newton to have any chance of repeating last years success.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars (trade with New England)- Jeremiah Attaochu, OLB, Georgia Tech

Jags give up the No.39, 105 and 114 to the Patriots. Every year there seems to be a surprise selection when it comes to pass rushers. Attaochu fits the 'Leo' linebacker role Dan Bradley wants in his defence, he coached him during the Senior Bowl so he got a upfront view of what he can do.

30. Dallas Cowboys- Xavier Su'a-Filo, G, UCLA

Despite the obvious needs on the defence the Cowboys do need an upgrade at guard, why not get the best prospect in the draft. DE and DT can wait till the second day.

31. Denver Broncos- Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois

Jimmie Ward offers the best coverage skills of any of the safeties this year, would complement T.J Ward well.

32. New York Jets (trade with Seattle)- Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech

The Jets give up the No.49, 104, 154 and 233 picks to move back into the first round. The Jets double down on offensive weapons for Geno Smith. Amaro could be a very good safety option for him.

A few surprises I know but the first round always, does so why not make a mock draft with some? Love to hear people's comments and views.

Also here is a link to my other article on the 2014 NFL draft, full of lists of players to look out for over the weekend.

Enjoy the draft!

NFL 2014 Draft Preview- List-tastic

After what seems a lifetime the 2014 NFL Draft is finally here. This years draft at Radio City, New York should be the most watched draft yet with intriguing storylines and players such as Johnny Manziel, Jadeveon Clowney and Teddy Bridgewater.

The deepest draft in recent history means that there is no consensus on who the picks will be after Jadeveon Clowney is most likely picked No.1 overall. With a record amount of underclassmen declaring early for this draft, 98 to be exact,  there are going to be a lot of future NFL starters going undrafted this year. Smart teams are going to trade back and accrue picks in the mid rounds. Unwise teams will mortgage future picks under pressure to perform this season or have their jobs terminated. The Draft as an event is compelling, captivating and full of drama, a perfect television event.

 Therefore I have produced a list of lists to give people the key players in the draft-underrated,overrated, trade scenarios, late round contributors. I don't watch a lot of film on players but I'm a information gatherer. If you figure out what sources and reports to trust you can get a very good idea of where players will be selected and what teams are looking for. Last year I won the First Round Exchange Draft Week Challenge by choosing the best risers in terms of stock before the draft occurred.

I was high on Kyle Long as well who ended up surprising a lot of people by landing with the Bears in the first round.

I don't show this to gloat. Only to say that is possible to get a very good gauge of where players will get drafted by sifting through articles, reports and interviews of NFL personnel, scouts, reporters and draftniks. So worth without further ado enjoy:

Locks for Top 10

Jadeveon Clowney
Khalil Mack
Sammy Watkins
Mike Evans
Greg Robinson

95% certain

Jake Matthews
Aaron Donald

50/50

Odell Beckham Jr
Taylor Lewan
Ha Ha Clinton Dix
Teddy Bridgewater
Blake Bortles

Dark Horses

Rashede Hagemann

Calvin Pryor
Justin Gilbert

Overrated Prospects

1.Tom Savage, WR, Pittsburgh- Has come out of nowhere the last two months to be invited to the green room at Radio City. Big armed QB who transferred twice and didn't start a game of football for more than a 1000 days between  Rutgers and Pittsburgh. Comparisons of Tom Brady sum it up.  Slow decision maker, got sacked the most in all of college football last year. Has shown flashes but there is no way he should be considered a Day 2 pick let alone the first round.

2. Eric Ebron, TE, NC- To be a consistent receiving threat you need to have great hands. That's it. Ebron has the size and speed to be a receiving threat down the seam but his hands and concentration are suspect. He makes tough catches but drops easy ones as well. He's not a inline blocker either so it all depends on whether he can be consistent catcher. I just don't buy it. Compared to Vernon Davis early on, looks more like Jermaine Gresham.

3. Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State- Has great measurables but shows no willingness as a tackler. Now that teams run their nickle package a lot to negate prolific passing attacks CB's have to be able to play the run and tackle in the open field.  The days of Asante Samuel like CB's are over. 

4. Marqise Lee, WR, USC- Same case with Ebron, has poor catching technique. He runs good routes but if he can't consistently catch he's not going to be any good to a team. He also gets injured very easily and will spend his time on the injury list a lot.

5. Derek Carr, QB, Fresno- Classic case of the 'prototypical'  QB who wows scouts/execs with his big arm despite struggling with accuracy and handles pressure badly. The way the NFL has worked lately he isn't going to have the luxury of sitting for a couple of years behind a vet. Blaine Gabbert like train crash waiting to happen

6. Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida- Ditto for Bortles except he has poor mechanics and is rated higher then Carr which means he will be drafted as a starter which means he is almost guaranteed to be thrown in the fire. Both these guys should be Round 2 picks.

7. Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA- Speed rusher who's only played the position for two years. Gets bullied at the point of attack in the rushing game, looks lost sometimes. I'm just not sure whether he has the instincts to pick up the positional nuance needed to justify a first round grade selection.

Underrated Prospects

1. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville- Too thin, hand size too small, no cannon arm, introvert, poor pro day, THE case study for the NFL not wanting to move from there antiquated ways of what a successful QB should look like. Just forget the fact that Bridgewater is the most accurate, has worked in a complicated prostyle, understands and dismantle defences. Just like Russell Wilson he is going to redefine the position and make many people in the NFL look foolish.

2. Jason Verrett, CB, TCU- I've lost count the amount of people saying 'if only he was a couple of inches taller' argument for Verrett. Pound for Pound he is the best CB prospect this year. Extremely quick and physical he could become the next Antoine Winfield. Will most likely fall out of the first round discussion but a team in the early 2nd will get a steal.

3. Ryan Shazier, LB, OSU- Another smaller athlete for his position, the emergence of Lavonte David at WLB means we can project Shazier with a little more certainty. Relentless motor and tackling machine. Can play inside or out in a 3-4 or 4-3.

4. Jarvis Landry, WR, LSU- This year's Keenan Allen, poor 40 times will drop him well into Day 2 but he makes some of the most difficult catches in the entire class and is an excellent blocker. Cannot afford to get injured with his lack of speed but will help a team immediately where ever he lands.

6. Telvin Smith, LB, FSU

7. Lamarcus Joyner, CB/S, FSU Both these guys are undersized but play with great instincts for the game. Joyner could become the next Mathieu type S/WR tweener who can cover in the slot but is a good tackler and playmaker. Telvin Smith needs to add some pounds on his lean body but with an NFL diet he should be fill out in time.

Prospects who may drop further then people imagined

1. Timmy Jernigan, DT, FSU- Diluted urine sample for drug test plus average tape means he most likely will slip into the 2nd day.

2. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington- Injuries have limited him in the draft process, a DUI will be a red flag to some teams but the big reason he may fall is simply is tape. Seferian-Jenkins just doesn't look like special athlete they should be picked in the top two rounds.

3. Antonio Richardson, OT, Tennessee- Unlike his fellow Tennessee tackle Jawuan James, Richardson is not being seen as a viable LT. Lack of athleticism and power will mean he could fall into late Day 2 even Day 3.

4. Shayne Skov, ILB, Stanford- Hasn't worked out during the draft process due to injury but some think he has been hiding away because of a really slow 40 time. Regardless he is going to fall into the late Day 3, maybe undrafted.

Mid Range Instant Impact

1. Jordan Tripp, LB, Montana- Versatile, quick and physical, will do in Day 2.

2. Jordan Zumwalt, ILB, UCLA- Big hitter. Will be a instant starter at MLB in Day 2.

3.Justin Ellis, DT, Louisiana Tech- Impressed at the Shrine game and Senior Bowl, big man who can play as a NT in 3-4.

4. Jarvis Landry, WR, LSU- Solid hands, good route runner, blocks in run game.

5. Dakota Dozier, OG, Furman- Larry Warford like value with Dozier in Day 2, starter for a lucky team.

Worst pick selection scenarios

1. Atlanta picks Taylor Lewan over Jake Matthews- Dimitroff is in danger of getting himself fired with his questionable moves over the last couple of seasons. Matthews is rock solid and there is no way Lewan should get picked before him. Has major red flags.

2.Detroit trades up to grab Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans- In the deepest WR draft class in years after signing Golden Tate to a $31 mllion deal? They have more serious issues in the secondary.

3.Browns pick Manziel at No.4- So they fire Lombardi/Banner who coveted Manziel and then go onto select Manziel regardless? Smells fishy to me but it is the Browns so you have to assume they will select the wrong QB.

4.The Bengals pass on Bridgewater if he is there at No.24- Andy Dalton is not the answer, Bridgewater would be an instant upgrade and a cheaper one, too easy not to do.

5.The Jags move back into the first round to grab Jimmy Garoppolo.

Jimmy is a Round 3 onwards developmental QB not a Day 1 starter. 

Dumbest 'legitimate' draft scenarios which won't happen

1. Cleveland wait till the No.26 to pick Teddy Bridgewater/Manziel- This could happen though because the Browns have shown to be that stupid. They NEED a franchise QB. They will have the pick of QB's at No.4 If they do pass there they have the picks to trade back into the mid first

2. The Bills trading up to No.1 for Clowney- They don't have a need at DE, they have more pressing need on the O Line, would cost them too much to move up from nine.

3. The 49ers trading into the Top 5 to grab Mike Evans. Same here for the 49ers, they would have to give up most of their picks to get into the Top 5, the value is not there.

4. Cowboys select Johnny Manziel at No.16- Even Jerry Jones is smart enough to figure out his defence needs an infusion of weapons over a replacement for Tony Romo.

Consensus picks in mock draft community which probably won't happen.

1. Zack Martin OT/G, Notre Dame to the Miami Dolphins at 19.

2. Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio State to the Tennessee Titans at 42.
3. Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State to the Detroit Lions at 10.
4. Rashede Hagemann/Louis Nix III to the New England Patriots at 29
5. Anthony Barr OLB, UCLA to Tennessee Titans at 11.

Hot Names 

1. Trai Turner, OG, LSU- Came out earlier then expected, raw but has the tolls to become a Pro Bowl guard. Could go as high as the middle of Round 2.

2. Kevin Pierre-Louis, OLB, Boston College- Short and light but extremely explosive, somebody is going to put him to good use. 

3. Jawuan James,OT, Tennessee- There is talk of him going as high as No.19 to Miami .

4. Laurant Duvernay-Tardif, OT, Canada- A French-Candian tackle who has wowed scouts with his measurables and intangibles. Won't make it passed Round 5 despite his lack of competition in college.

5. Stanley Jean Baptiste, CB, Nebraska- The big, long armed CB is in vogue, Baptiste has been compared to Brandon Browner and Nnamdi Asomugha. Reports are going out he may sneak into backend of Round 1.

Biggest Risers during draft process

1. Tom Savage, QB

2. Joel Bitonio, OT/G- Nevada

3. Aaron Donald, DT, Penn St

4. Cody Latimer, Wr, Indiana

5. Stanley Jean Baptiste, CB.

Biggest losers during the draft process

1. Cyrus Kouandjio, OT, Alabama

2. Will Sutton, DT, Arizona State

3. AJ McCarron, QB, Alabama

4. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State

5. Colt Lyerla, TE

6. Seantrel Henderson, OT, Miami (FL)

Mid to Late round players I like

1.Terrance West, RB, Towson

2. Storm Johnson, RB, UCF

3. Trai Turner, OG, LSU

4. Bashaud Breeland, CB, Clemson

5. Charles Sims, RB, West Virginia 

6. Joe Don Duncan, TE, Dixie State

7. Keith Wenning, QB, Ball State

8. Caraun Reid, DT, Princeton

9. Jaylen Watkins, CB, Florida

10. Jared Abbrederis, WR, Wisconsin

11. C.J Fiedorowicz, TE, Iowa

12. Phillip Gaines, CB, Rice
13. Jordan Tripp, LB, Montana

Please feel free to give feedback, comments appreciated. Enjoy the draft.

2013 Week 3 Fantasy Football TE Rankings

Week 3 Fantasy Football TE Rankings- 

1. Jimmy Graham (NO) vs ARI

2. Julius Thomas (DEN) vs OAK

3. Jason Witten (DAL) vs STL

4. Jordan Cameron (CLE) @ MIN

5. Antonio Gates (SD) @ TEN

6. Owen Daniels (HOU) @ BAL

7. Jared Cook (STL) @ DAL

8. Jermichael Finley (GB) @ CIN

9. Greg Olsen (CAR) vs NYG

10. Brandon Myers (NYG) @ CAR

11. Tony Gonzalez (ATL) @ MIA

12. Martellus Bennett (CHI) @ PIT

13. Tyler Eifert (CIN) vs GB

14. Coby Fleener (IND) @ SAN

15.  Vernon Davis (SF) vs  IND

16. Jermaine Gresham (CIN) vs GB

17. Charles Clay (MIA) @ Falcons 

18. Kellen Winslow (NYJ) vs BUF

19. Jordan Reed (WAS) vs  DET 

20. Brandon Pettigrew (DET) @ WAS

22. Kyle Rudolph (MIN) vs CLE

23. Vance McDonald (SAN) vs IND

24. Fred Davis (WAS) vs DET

2013 Week 3 Fantasy Football RB Rankings

Here are week 3 RB fantasy rankings:

1. Marshawn Lynch (SEA) vs Jaguars- After scoring three touchdowns against the 49ers last week Lynch gets to face the worst team in the NFL. A given

2. LeSean McCoy (PHI) vs Chiefs

3. Adrian Peterson (MIN) vs Browns- The Browns have a very good defencd but you just can't bet against Peterson getting his.

4. Jamaal Charles (KC) @ Eagles

5. Alfred Morris (WAS) vs Lions- If the Washington line can stop Suh and Fairley in the middle the rest of the Lions defence isn't that good. Look for another 100 yards and a score from Morris.

6. Frank Gore (SF) vs Colts- The 49ers have really struggled to run the ball the first two matches but they have faced the Packers and Seahwaks. The Colts has one of the worst defences in the league so Gore should score well.

7. Doug Martin (TB) @ Patriots- Tough matchup for Martin but he is going to get a lot of work with QB Josh Freeman struggling to complete passes.

8. Chris Johnson (TEN) vs Chargers- The Titans are running it more then any other team so CJ2K will get plenty of opportunities against an average Chargers defence.

9. Matt Forte (CHI) @ Steelers- Forte has finally become the feature back we hoped him to be and his being used heavilt in Marc Trestmans offence. A tough matchup but he looks to good to drop out of the Top 10.

10. C.J. Spiller (BUF) vs Jets- Another tough matchup for Spiller but as EJ Manual gets more comfortable under centre teams will have to stop focusing on Spiller.

11. Arian Foster (HOU) @ Ravens- Foster looks slower this year then the last couple of years. Lets hope he improves as the year progresses. Baltimore are still not quite there on the defensive side so the matchup isn't as daunting as in previous years.

12. Reggie Bush (DET) vs Washington- If Bush can play with his knee injury then he has a fantastic matchup vs Washington.

13. Joique Bell (DET) @ Washington- If Bush can't play Bell is going to get a lot of time. My start of the week.

14. Bernard Pierce (BAL) vs Texans- With Ray Rice doubtful Pierce will have an opportunity to show people how good a RB he is. Runs hard downhill and is a lot more physical then Rice is. 

15.  Knowshon Moreno (DEN) vs Raiders- After last weeks performance against the Giants a lot of people have Moreno ranked higher but he just doesn't get the goaline carries. Both of his touchdowns came from outside the redzone. The loss of LT Ryan Clady also doesn't help but he should score at least a touchdown.

16. Darren Sproles (NO) vs Cardinals- Sproles has yet to score but the Cardinals don't seem to be the defence they were last year so look for him to catch a lot of passes.

17. Darren McFadden (OAK) @ Broncos- Hard matchup for McFadden as the Raiders will most likely be chasing the Broncos all day on the scoreboard. He may get the majority of his yards from catches this week.

18. Trent Richardson (IND) @ 49ers- New team and a better situation for Richardson but I think he will struggle this week with a new playbook. The 49ers rush defence is overrated but the Colts O Line is really shaky so i'm not expecting great things this week for him.

19. Rashard Mendenhall (ARI) @ Saints- Mendenhall looks good so far and should continue to be relevant against an average Saints defence.

20. Giovani Bernard (CIN) vs Packers- Bernard is the beat pass catching RB that the Bengals have so he's going to be needed to keep up with the Packers offence. The Bengals have to realise that they have to involve him a lot more for them to win. 

21. Lamar Miller (MIA) vs Falcons- Miller meets an Atlanta defence struck down by injuries. If he can't produce against this defence he is going to struggle against most of them

22. Stevan Ridley (NE) vs Buccaneers- The Bucs maybe having trouble on offence but their rush defence is one of the best in the league. With a lack of a NE passing offence the Bucs will stack the box to stop Ridley. 

23. DeAngelo Williams (CAR) vs Giants- The Giants defence suck bad, especially their linebackers, DeAngelo should get some yards if his O Line can hold up.

24. DeMarco Murray (DAL) vs Rams- Rams have defended the run well so far and the Cowboys O Line has struggled especially in the middle where Murray excels. Not expecting a big day form Murray.

25. David Wilson (NYG) @ Panthers- They have to give him the ball to win it's as simple as that. Not the best matchup for him but he's all the Giants have so they have to use him.

26. James Starks (GB) @ Bengals- After running for 100 yards last week in place of concucussed Eddy Lacy, Starks returns back down to reality against a solid Bengals team. 

27. Daryl Richardson (STL) @ Cowboys

28. Ryan Mathews (SD) @ Titans- Titans look really good defensively this year, Matthews is a bust for me this week, just like most weeks.

29. Robert Turbin (SEA) vs Jaguars- My sleeper flex play of the week. If the Seahawks get out to a big lead in the 2nd half look for Lynch to get rested for the 4th quarter giving Turbin some time to get some fantasy points.

30. Bilal Powell (NYJ) vs Bills- 

31.Ben Tate (HOU) @ Ravens

32. Jason Snelling (ATL) @ Dolphins

33. Fred Jackson (BUF) @ Jets

34. Danny Woodhead (SD) @ Titans

35. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (CIN) vs Packers

36. Jacquizz Rodgers (ATL) @ Dolphins

37. Christopher Ivory (NYJ) vs Bills

38. Montee Ball (DEN) vs Raiders

39. Pierre Thomas (NO) vs Cardinals

40. Andre Ellington (ARI) @ Saints

41. Michael Bush (CHI) @ Steelers

42. Bryce Brown (PHI) vs Chiefs

43. Isaiah Pead (STL) @ Cowboys

44. Ahmad Bradshaw (IND) @ 49ers

45. Kendall Hunter (SF) vs Colts

46. Ronnie Hillman (DEN) vs Raiders

47. Felix Jones (PIT) vs Bears 

48. Willis McGahee (CLE) @ Vikings

49. Roy Helu (WAS) vs Lions

50. Mark Ingram (NO) vs Cardinals

51. Mike Tolbert (CAR) vs Giants

52. Jordan Todman (JAC) @ Seahawks

53. Da’Rel Scott (NYG) @ Panthers

54. Marcel Reece (OAK) @ Broncos

55. Chris Ogbannaya (CLE) @ Vikings

Week 3 Fantasy Football QB Rankings

Week 3 is upon us and it's here are my Fantasy rankings for Quarterbacks this week: (standard scoring settings) 1. Peyton Manning  vs Oak- Despite the loss of his LT Ryan Clady for the rest of the season Manning is going up against the Raiders. Expect a big night throwing.  2. Colin Kaepernick vs Colts- A rough night against the Seahawks last week but Kap will return closer to his Week 1 ways by playing a porous Colts defence.  3. Drew Brees vs Cardinals- The Cards defence is not as good as last years so Brees should have time to throw all game and get some good stats after two weeks of below average scores for him. 4. Aaron Rodgers @ Bengals-  After throwing for 480 yards vs Washington last week Rodgers comes up against a far better defence however he's playing far too well to drop down very far. 5. Matthew Stafford @ Washington- Stafford is the next lucky QB to throw against this horrible Washington defence. Even with Reggie Bush injured Stafford is going to get yards and touchdowns.  6. RGIII vs Lions- Despite the struggles of RG3 he has been accruing stats in garbage time. This weeks game should be another high scoring match and there are signs that he may look to run a little bit more. 7. Michael Vick vs Chiefs-   8. Andrew Luck @ 49ers-  The addition of RB Trent Richardson from the Browns means that the opposition can't cheat to the pass and sets up the playaction for Luck. The 49ers secondary is not as good as their advertised and they will struggle to contain Wayne, Hilton and Fleener. 9. Eli Manning @ Giants- The Panthers secondary as been hit with injuries and the Giants still don't trust RB David Wilson with a big workload so Eli will again will be throwing it too his very good WR corp. 10. Matt Ryan @ Dolphins- With Steven Jackson out for a few weeks Ryan is going to be throwing even more and against this Dolphins front 7 he will have to get rid of the ball quickly but he's been making yards so i'm not worried about his output this week. 11. Russell Wilson vs Jaguars- They will run it  a lot but Wilson should throw a couple of touchdowns and run for one himself against the worst team in the NFL. 12. Tony Romo vs Rams- Cowboys are struggling to run and the Rams front 7 is good so look for Romo to continue to throw for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns with a turnover or two. It's almost a science. 13. Sam Bradford @ Cowboys- Bradford has looked solid in the first two matches with his new receiving weapons. An injury to starting RB Daryl Richardson may force the Rams to pass a bit more against a Cowboys defence who has struggled pass rushing so far. 14.  Tom Brady vs Buccaneers-  If Rob Gronkowski is back for this game then he moves up a couple of spots but it's still risky. Even though the Bucs are terrible at rushing the passer the secondary is very good. CB Darrelle Revis will lock down Brady's only veteran WR available, Julian Edleman so he will have to rely on rookies Aaron Dobson and Kenbrall Thompkins again. I think the Patriots will improve their offence from last weeks failures but not by much and if you have a QB with a more favourable matchup maybe it's a good week to be safe. 15. Ryan Tannehill vs Falcons- Has looked good this season and meets a Atlanta defence struck down with injuries. Sean Weatherspoon, the best coverage LB for the Falcons is out for half the season and veteran CB Asante Samuel is questionable for this match. All this means Tannehill should have time to throw down field to Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline.  16. Cam Newton vs Giants-  If Cam Newton doesn't produce against a questionable Giants defence I am dropping him further down the list. The playcalling by Mike Shula is just too conservative and the offence as a whole has been neglected by the organisation for too many years. Newton just doesn't have a good supporting cast and his coaches stink, not a good situation for fantasy football owners who selected him in the 4th/5th round. 17. Phillip Rivers @ Titans- Coach Mike McCoy has done a great job in making Rivers a competent QB so far this season. He's getting rid of the ball quickly and to open receivers. I this continues against a solid Titans DST then it could be time to take Rivers seriously as a borderline No.1 QB. 18. Andy Dalton vs Packers- Dalton played really poorly on Monday night against the Steelers missing open receivers and generally being indecisive. He has to do a better job against the Packers whose offence is going to score.  19.  Carson Palmer @ Saints- A juicy matchup for Palmer is tempered by the fact that WR's Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Roberts are injured and the Saints defence has surprisingly been quite solid so limit your expectation of Palmer this week. 20.  Alex Smith @ Eagles-  21. Terrelle Pryor @ Broncos- Pryor is going to have garbage time in this game to pad his stats as the Raiders probably will be playing catchup the entire game.  22.  Matt Schaub @ Ravens- If Andre Johnson isn't able to play due to the concussion he suffered last week this could be a poor day for Schaub. Ravens at home is always tough for opposition QB's. 23. Jay Cutler @ Pittsburgh- It seems evry week Cutler will throw a couple of touchdowns but will give away possession with bone headed plays. Despite the obvious physical talents he just doesn't seem to learn from his mistakes, of which there are many. The Steelers will be a tough test for him this week. 24. Josh Freeman @ Patriots- Freeman is not going to be the Bucs QB next season that is for sure. The question is whether he is going to last half way through this season before he is replaced coach Greg Schiano. Freeman just isn't accurate enough to be a starting NFL QB. 25. Ben Roethlisberger vs Bears- Tough matchup in a short week, Roethlisberger is missing a big physical receiver he can throw it up to when he just needs to get rid of the ball. It's gong to be a long year for him in this Todd Haeye offence. 26.  EJ Manual @ Jets- I really like Manuel as the future of the Bills but this week he's playing a very good Jets defence and he may struggle. 27. Joe Flacco vs Houston- Flacco is being found out for the average QB he is. If he doesn't have receivers who can make plays off his inaccurate throws then he's going to struggle to make completions. Against the Texans he is going to really struggle just like he did last weekend against the Browns. 28. Jake Locker vs Chargers 29. Geno Smith vs Bills- Too many turnovers committed by this rookie who seems out of his depth, should be sitting on the bench learning but there is no one else to over take him 30. Christian Ponder vs Browns- You Should NEVER start for any fantasy team, it's only a matter of time till Matt Cassell is starting for the Vikings.
31. Chad Henne vs Seahawks - It's going to be a long long day for Henne as he goes up to Seattle to face the best defence in the league.  32. Brian Hoyer @ Vikings- No Trent Richardson to help him any more. Hoyer replaces Brandon Weeden to face a defence who made Cutler uncomfortable last week. He gets Josh Gordon back from suspension but this offence is just not good, avoid at all costs. Next up the running back rankings.

Value Based Drafting Part Two- Year to Year Positional Fluctuation

Welcome to part two of drafting the best fantasy football team available. In part one I covered the definition of Value Based Drafting (VBD), which in essence is about drafting players who provide good value where you select them. Looking at the point differential between the top players of the position we find that even though the elite QB's score the most points, the gap between them and the rest of the position is not as large as in the RB or TE groups. We move onto the year to year percentage differences in positions. 

Position Fluctuation

Here are the percentages for the amount of players who stay in the top 10 from the previous year:

2011                                 2012
QB- 50%                           60%
RB- 60%                            50%
WR- 50%                          40%

TE- 20%                            50%

As you can see the QB position remains just as a fluid as the rest of the positions. Combine that with the gap between Brees/Rodgers and the rest of the position it makes it clear that it isn't worth drafting a QB early if you want value. You are better off taking a chance on RB in the first two rounds and hope at least one of them pans out. Another thing to take out of this is the fact that if you don't get Graham or Gronk this year just wait till the end. With the position being so volatile focus on getting RB/WR in the mid rounds and then take one or two flyers in the late rounds. Your chances of picking a top 10 TE are not as bad as if you do the same in the other two positions.

Depth All Over

Lets now look at where the top 10 players of the three main positions have been drafted over the past two years:

2012
QB                                                              RB                                               WR
Drew Brees  Rd 1 346                   Adrian Peterson Rd 3 307       Calvin Johnson Rd 1 220
Aaron Rodgers Rd 1  344 (-2)       Doug Martin Rd 4 263 (-44)    Brandon Marshall Rd 3 217 (-3)
Tom Brady Rd 1 340 (-6)              Arian Foster Rd 1 262 (-45)    Dez Bryant Rd 4 208 (-12)
Cam Newton Rd 2 323 (-23)     Marshawn Lynch Rd 2 247 (-60) AJ Green Rd 3 203 (-17)
Robert Griffin III Rd 7 318 (-28) Alfred Morris Rd 15 241 (-66)   Demaryious Thomas Rd 5 197 (-23)
Peyton Manning  Rd 5 311 (-35)  Ray Rice Rd 1 222 (-85)           Vincent Jackson Rd 6 188 (-34)
Matt Ryan Rd 4 305 (-41)         CJ Spiller Rd 8 212 (-95)           Eric Decker Rd 6 184 (-38)
Tony Romo Rd 6 279 (-67)       Jamaal Charles Rd 3 205 (-102) Andre Johnson Rd 2 184 (-38)
Andrew Luck  Rd 9 276 (-70)   Trent Richardson Rd 3 204 (-103) Julio Jones Rd 2 183 (-39)
Russell Wilson Rd 15 276 (-70) Frank Gore Rd 4 203 (-104)       Roddy White Rd 3 177 (-45)
Matthew Stafford Rd 2 276 (-70) Stevan Ridley Rd 8 199 (-108) Marques Colston Rd 4 171 (-51)
Andy Dalton Rd 11 250 (-96)    Matt Forte Rd 2 177 (-128)        Wes Welker Rd 2 171 (-51)

2011
QB                                                                RB                                            WR
Aaron Rodgers Rd 1 397               Ray Rice Rd 1 297                         Calvin Johnson Rd 2 263     
Drew Brees Rd 2 392 (-5)             LeSean McCoy Rd 1 280 (-17)      Jordy Nelson Rd 8 216 (-47)
Cam Newton Rd 14 369 (-28)      M Jones Drew Rd 1 262 (-35)       Wes Welker Rd 3 214 (-49)
Tom Brady Rd 1 366 (-31)           Arian Foster Rd 1 250 (-47)           Victor Cruz Rd 9 206 (-57)
Matthew Stafford Rd 8 343 (-54) Marshawn Lynch Rd 6 216 (-81)    Larry Fitzgerald Rd 2 189 (-74)
Eli Manning Rd 9 281 (-62)          Michael Turner Rd 2 213 (-84)        Steve Smith Rd 7 185 (-78) 
Tony Romo Rd 4 276 (-67)          Adrian Peterson Rd 1 189 (-108)   Roddy White Rd 2 178 (-85)
Matt Ryan Rd 5 273 (-70)            Ryan Matthews Rd 3 187 (-110)    Percy Harvin Rd 5 175 (-88)
Phillip Rivers Rd 3 255 (-88)        Michael Bush Rd 9 186 (-111)        Mike Wallace Rd 3 171 (-92)
Mark Sanchez Rd 12 237 (-106)  Darren Sproles Rd 11 185 (-112)   Vincent Jackson Rd 2 170 (-93)
Michael Vick Rd 1 233 (-110)      Steven Jackson Rd 2 182 (-115)    Hakeem Nicks Rd 2 161 (-102)
Ryan Fitzpatrick Rd 14 223 (-120) Frank Gore Rd 2 177 (-120)        Marques Colston Rd 4 160 (-103)

Even if you don't draft a QB in the first two rounds you have a good chance to get a QB which can become a top 12 in the late late rounds. Every year there is a Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford or  Russell Wilson who gets drafted in the last couple of rounds who becomes a Top 10 QB. You don't need to panic and reach for a QB in the first couple of rounds and sacrifice better value players at other positions.

Just look at this example from a 12 team league I was in last year- two teams with the first two picks of the draft and look how their teams worked out.

Team A with the first pick-
1st rd-Aaron Rodgers+2nd rd -Steven Jackson+ 3rd rd Trent Richardson+ 9th rd Lance Moore.

and

Team B with the second pick-
1st rd-Arian Foster+2nd rd Adrian Peterson+ 3rd rd AJ Green+ 9th rd RG3

Now look at the season totals for each team:

Team A total score-346+162+204+ 140=852

Team B Total score-262+307+ 203+ 318= 1090

There's a huge difference between the two teams. Option A waited until the 5th round for a WR and missed out on the elite players while Option B ended up with two of the top 3 RB and a Top 3 WR while getting RG3 who only scored 28 less points then Rodgers. The simple fact is if you take a QB early you are playing catch up the rest of the draft trying to select lottery tickets at the RB/WR with less chance of success. 

So to sum up VBD:

• Don't select a QB in the first three rounds at least. Your missing out on the chance of elite RB's and WR's and you won't have a sizeable points advantage within the QB situation.
• Try and take as many chances at RB in the early rounds. With the rise of running back by committee and the increase in passing around the league the depth at RB runs out quickly. You rely on picking up Alfred Morris in the late rounds, they are rare. Getting three RB's out of your first five picks is ideal.
• If you don't get one of the top 5 WR's you can afford to wait until the middle rounds where players routinely become top 10 picks. 
• If you don't get Graham or Gronk just wait until the late rounds. Guys like Jordan Cameron and Zach Sudfeld have great upside for where they are being drafted. If they don't work out then you can pick up someone on waiver wire and you lost a lot in your investment.
• Never ever draft a DST or Kicker before the last three rounds. Both positions fluctuate from year to year as the rest and you can always choose DST's on a game by game basis by looking at favourable mathhups. Don't be the fool who drafts the Seahawks in Round 8-10. Statistics show that the No.1 drafted DST NEVER is the first one at the end of the season. Take a flier at the end with upside rather than wasting a pick which could be better spent.

Value Based Drafting Part One- Getting the most out of your fantasy football draft.

It's that time of year again. Over the next week, thousands of fantasy football leagues around the world will be selecting their dream teams hoping that over the course of the NFL season the players they select win them glory. Drafting a good team is not a guarantee you will win your league. Injuries, suspensions and substitutions will affect your fantasy football team throughout the season and identifying the right players to pick up on waivers is crucial.

Conventional wisdom for players old and new of fantasy football is grab a QB with one of your very first picks as they score the most points. However the value is in fact in the running back and wide receiver position in the early stages and I will show you why in this article. This focus on drafting for value has become the most popular mode amongst fantasy football experts and gives you a distinct advantage against your opponents if you draft correctly.

The principle of Value Based Drafting (VBD) described at Footballguys.com is this: The value of a player is determined not by the number of points he scores, but by how much he outscores his peers at his particular position. 

So your identifying the gap between the top players at their position and the rest, how much of a drop off is their within position. The bigger gap the more valuable the elite players are at that position and showing the importance of getting one of those elite options before they run out. You are also comparing the points advantage you have or don't have against opposition teams. For example-

                          QB           RB            WR             TE                 Cumulative Score        
Team A              12             15 (+7)      16 (+6)         7                             50
Team B               18 (+6)     8               10               10  (+3)                    46

The individual positional point total is not the emphasis, it's the advantage you have in the cumulative score which really matters. You may have better QB's and TE's then your opponents but if you have average RB's and WR's then your're going to lose more often then not. With VBD defined lets look at some of the key indicators for creating the best possible team.

Point Differential

The gap between the elite player and the rest of the pack is crucial to understand the true value of drafting the right players at the right position early in drafts.

Lets look at the point differentials of the top 12 of the QB,RB and WR positions over the past two years using NFL.com standard scoring settings. Their total season score is in red and how big the points gap was between a player and the top player in that position is in the brackets.

2012

QB                                              RB                                   WR
Drew Brees  346                   Adrian Peterson  307       Calvin Johnson 220
Aaron Rodgers   344 (-2)       Doug Martin 263 (-44)    Brandon Marshall 217 (-3)
Tom Brady  340 (-6)              Arian Foster 262 (-45)    Dez Bryant 208 (-12)
Cam Newton  323 (-23)     Marshawn Lynch 247 (-60) AJ Green 203 (-17)
Robert Griffin III  318 (-28) Alfred Morris 241 (-66)   Demaryious Thomas 197 (-23)
Peyton Manning  311 (-35)  Ray Rice 222 (-85)           Vincent Jackson 188 (-34)
Matt Ryan  305 (-41)         CJ Spiller 212 (-95)           Eric Decker 184 (-38)
Tony Romo  279 (-67)       Jamaal Charles 205 (-102) Andre Johnson 184 (-38)
Andrew Luck 276 (-70)   Trent Richardson 204 (-103) Julio Jones 183 (-39)
Russell Wilson 276 (-70) Frank Gore 203 (-104)       Roddy White 177 (-45)
Matthew Stafford 276 (-70) Stevan Ridley 199 (-108) Marques Colston 171 (-51)
Andy Dalton  250 (-96)    Matt Forte 177 (-128)        Wes Welker 171 (-51)

2011

QB                                                RB                                      WR
Aaron Rodgers 397               Ray Rice 297                         Calvin Johnson 263     
Drew Brees  392 (-5)             LeSean McCoy 280 (-17)      Jordy Nelson 216 (-47)
Cam Newton  369 (-28)      M Jones Drew 262 (-35)       Wes Welker 214 (-49)
Tom Brady 366 (-31)           Arian Foster 250 (-47)           Victor Cruz 206 (-57)
Matthew Stafford 343 (-54) Marshawn Lynch 216 (-81)    Larry Fitzgerald 189 (-74)
Eli Manning 281 (-62)          Michael Turner 213 (-84)        Steve Smith 185 (-78) 
Tony Romo 276 (-67)          Adrian Peterson 189 (-108)   Roddy White 178 (-85)
Matt Ryan 273 (-70)            Ryan Matthews 187 (-110)    Percy Harvin  175 (-88)
Phillip Rivers 255 (-88)        Michael Bush  186 (-111)        Mike Wallace 171 (-92)
Mark Sanchez 237 (-106)  Darren Sproles  185 (-112)   Vincent Jackson 170 (-93)
Michael Vick 233 (-110)      Steven Jackson 182 (-115)    Hakeem Nicks 161 (-102)
Ryan Fitzpatrick 223 (-120) Frank Gore 177 (-120)        Marques Colston 160 (-103)

As you can see with the point differential gaps between the positional groups are significant. RB's have the biggest disparity with the depth running out quickly. Once your're down to the 6th or 7th best RB the gap is nearly 100 points to the top RB. Compare that to QB where in the 7th place QB in 2012, Matt Ryan was only 41 points behind Drew Brees. With the WR position the gap is even closer with only 51 points separating the top 12. Breaking it down on a per game here is another perspective:

• The point differential between the top QB of 2012 Drew Brees, and the 10th Russell Wilson was 70 points or just 4.4 points per match.
• The point differential between the top RB of 2012 Adrian Peterson and the the 10th Frank Gore was 104 points or just 6.5 points per match.

A two points per game difference may not seem much but it all adds up. On a week to week basis you're going to win more then you'll lose if you have better running backs then your opponents.

The one position where it seems crucial to pick up the top players is TE.
If we go back to the 2011 season the gap between the top two TE's, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham was 100-140 points greater than the tenth best TE which gave people with those players a massive advantage over the rest of the league at such a shallow position. If you don't get one out of Graham, Gronkowski, Witten then I would wait until the later rounds to take a chance on one of the many options there.

That concludes the first part of VBD drafting series. Next is a focus on the fluctuation of positions.