NFL 2014 Draft Preview- List-tastic

After what seems a lifetime the 2014 NFL Draft is finally here. This years draft at Radio City, New York should be the most watched draft yet with intriguing storylines and players such as Johnny Manziel, Jadeveon Clowney and Teddy Bridgewater.

The deepest draft in recent history means that there is no consensus on who the picks will be after Jadeveon Clowney is most likely picked No.1 overall. With a record amount of underclassmen declaring early for this draft, 98 to be exact,  there are going to be a lot of future NFL starters going undrafted this year. Smart teams are going to trade back and accrue picks in the mid rounds. Unwise teams will mortgage future picks under pressure to perform this season or have their jobs terminated. The Draft as an event is compelling, captivating and full of drama, a perfect television event.

 Therefore I have produced a list of lists to give people the key players in the draft-underrated,overrated, trade scenarios, late round contributors. I don't watch a lot of film on players but I'm a information gatherer. If you figure out what sources and reports to trust you can get a very good idea of where players will be selected and what teams are looking for. Last year I won the First Round Exchange Draft Week Challenge by choosing the best risers in terms of stock before the draft occurred.

I was high on Kyle Long as well who ended up surprising a lot of people by landing with the Bears in the first round.

I don't show this to gloat. Only to say that is possible to get a very good gauge of where players will get drafted by sifting through articles, reports and interviews of NFL personnel, scouts, reporters and draftniks. So worth without further ado enjoy:

Locks for Top 10

Jadeveon Clowney
Khalil Mack
Sammy Watkins
Mike Evans
Greg Robinson

95% certain

Jake Matthews
Aaron Donald

50/50

Odell Beckham Jr
Taylor Lewan
Ha Ha Clinton Dix
Teddy Bridgewater
Blake Bortles

Dark Horses

Rashede Hagemann

Calvin Pryor
Justin Gilbert

Overrated Prospects

1.Tom Savage, WR, Pittsburgh- Has come out of nowhere the last two months to be invited to the green room at Radio City. Big armed QB who transferred twice and didn't start a game of football for more than a 1000 days between  Rutgers and Pittsburgh. Comparisons of Tom Brady sum it up.  Slow decision maker, got sacked the most in all of college football last year. Has shown flashes but there is no way he should be considered a Day 2 pick let alone the first round.

2. Eric Ebron, TE, NC- To be a consistent receiving threat you need to have great hands. That's it. Ebron has the size and speed to be a receiving threat down the seam but his hands and concentration are suspect. He makes tough catches but drops easy ones as well. He's not a inline blocker either so it all depends on whether he can be consistent catcher. I just don't buy it. Compared to Vernon Davis early on, looks more like Jermaine Gresham.

3. Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State- Has great measurables but shows no willingness as a tackler. Now that teams run their nickle package a lot to negate prolific passing attacks CB's have to be able to play the run and tackle in the open field.  The days of Asante Samuel like CB's are over. 

4. Marqise Lee, WR, USC- Same case with Ebron, has poor catching technique. He runs good routes but if he can't consistently catch he's not going to be any good to a team. He also gets injured very easily and will spend his time on the injury list a lot.

5. Derek Carr, QB, Fresno- Classic case of the 'prototypical'  QB who wows scouts/execs with his big arm despite struggling with accuracy and handles pressure badly. The way the NFL has worked lately he isn't going to have the luxury of sitting for a couple of years behind a vet. Blaine Gabbert like train crash waiting to happen

6. Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida- Ditto for Bortles except he has poor mechanics and is rated higher then Carr which means he will be drafted as a starter which means he is almost guaranteed to be thrown in the fire. Both these guys should be Round 2 picks.

7. Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA- Speed rusher who's only played the position for two years. Gets bullied at the point of attack in the rushing game, looks lost sometimes. I'm just not sure whether he has the instincts to pick up the positional nuance needed to justify a first round grade selection.

Underrated Prospects

1. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville- Too thin, hand size too small, no cannon arm, introvert, poor pro day, THE case study for the NFL not wanting to move from there antiquated ways of what a successful QB should look like. Just forget the fact that Bridgewater is the most accurate, has worked in a complicated prostyle, understands and dismantle defences. Just like Russell Wilson he is going to redefine the position and make many people in the NFL look foolish.

2. Jason Verrett, CB, TCU- I've lost count the amount of people saying 'if only he was a couple of inches taller' argument for Verrett. Pound for Pound he is the best CB prospect this year. Extremely quick and physical he could become the next Antoine Winfield. Will most likely fall out of the first round discussion but a team in the early 2nd will get a steal.

3. Ryan Shazier, LB, OSU- Another smaller athlete for his position, the emergence of Lavonte David at WLB means we can project Shazier with a little more certainty. Relentless motor and tackling machine. Can play inside or out in a 3-4 or 4-3.

4. Jarvis Landry, WR, LSU- This year's Keenan Allen, poor 40 times will drop him well into Day 2 but he makes some of the most difficult catches in the entire class and is an excellent blocker. Cannot afford to get injured with his lack of speed but will help a team immediately where ever he lands.

6. Telvin Smith, LB, FSU

7. Lamarcus Joyner, CB/S, FSU Both these guys are undersized but play with great instincts for the game. Joyner could become the next Mathieu type S/WR tweener who can cover in the slot but is a good tackler and playmaker. Telvin Smith needs to add some pounds on his lean body but with an NFL diet he should be fill out in time.

Prospects who may drop further then people imagined

1. Timmy Jernigan, DT, FSU- Diluted urine sample for drug test plus average tape means he most likely will slip into the 2nd day.

2. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington- Injuries have limited him in the draft process, a DUI will be a red flag to some teams but the big reason he may fall is simply is tape. Seferian-Jenkins just doesn't look like special athlete they should be picked in the top two rounds.

3. Antonio Richardson, OT, Tennessee- Unlike his fellow Tennessee tackle Jawuan James, Richardson is not being seen as a viable LT. Lack of athleticism and power will mean he could fall into late Day 2 even Day 3.

4. Shayne Skov, ILB, Stanford- Hasn't worked out during the draft process due to injury but some think he has been hiding away because of a really slow 40 time. Regardless he is going to fall into the late Day 3, maybe undrafted.

Mid Range Instant Impact

1. Jordan Tripp, LB, Montana- Versatile, quick and physical, will do in Day 2.

2. Jordan Zumwalt, ILB, UCLA- Big hitter. Will be a instant starter at MLB in Day 2.

3.Justin Ellis, DT, Louisiana Tech- Impressed at the Shrine game and Senior Bowl, big man who can play as a NT in 3-4.

4. Jarvis Landry, WR, LSU- Solid hands, good route runner, blocks in run game.

5. Dakota Dozier, OG, Furman- Larry Warford like value with Dozier in Day 2, starter for a lucky team.

Worst pick selection scenarios

1. Atlanta picks Taylor Lewan over Jake Matthews- Dimitroff is in danger of getting himself fired with his questionable moves over the last couple of seasons. Matthews is rock solid and there is no way Lewan should get picked before him. Has major red flags.

2.Detroit trades up to grab Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans- In the deepest WR draft class in years after signing Golden Tate to a $31 mllion deal? They have more serious issues in the secondary.

3.Browns pick Manziel at No.4- So they fire Lombardi/Banner who coveted Manziel and then go onto select Manziel regardless? Smells fishy to me but it is the Browns so you have to assume they will select the wrong QB.

4.The Bengals pass on Bridgewater if he is there at No.24- Andy Dalton is not the answer, Bridgewater would be an instant upgrade and a cheaper one, too easy not to do.

5.The Jags move back into the first round to grab Jimmy Garoppolo.

Jimmy is a Round 3 onwards developmental QB not a Day 1 starter. 

Dumbest 'legitimate' draft scenarios which won't happen

1. Cleveland wait till the No.26 to pick Teddy Bridgewater/Manziel- This could happen though because the Browns have shown to be that stupid. They NEED a franchise QB. They will have the pick of QB's at No.4 If they do pass there they have the picks to trade back into the mid first

2. The Bills trading up to No.1 for Clowney- They don't have a need at DE, they have more pressing need on the O Line, would cost them too much to move up from nine.

3. The 49ers trading into the Top 5 to grab Mike Evans. Same here for the 49ers, they would have to give up most of their picks to get into the Top 5, the value is not there.

4. Cowboys select Johnny Manziel at No.16- Even Jerry Jones is smart enough to figure out his defence needs an infusion of weapons over a replacement for Tony Romo.

Consensus picks in mock draft community which probably won't happen.

1. Zack Martin OT/G, Notre Dame to the Miami Dolphins at 19.

2. Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio State to the Tennessee Titans at 42.
3. Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State to the Detroit Lions at 10.
4. Rashede Hagemann/Louis Nix III to the New England Patriots at 29
5. Anthony Barr OLB, UCLA to Tennessee Titans at 11.

Hot Names 

1. Trai Turner, OG, LSU- Came out earlier then expected, raw but has the tolls to become a Pro Bowl guard. Could go as high as the middle of Round 2.

2. Kevin Pierre-Louis, OLB, Boston College- Short and light but extremely explosive, somebody is going to put him to good use. 

3. Jawuan James,OT, Tennessee- There is talk of him going as high as No.19 to Miami .

4. Laurant Duvernay-Tardif, OT, Canada- A French-Candian tackle who has wowed scouts with his measurables and intangibles. Won't make it passed Round 5 despite his lack of competition in college.

5. Stanley Jean Baptiste, CB, Nebraska- The big, long armed CB is in vogue, Baptiste has been compared to Brandon Browner and Nnamdi Asomugha. Reports are going out he may sneak into backend of Round 1.

Biggest Risers during draft process

1. Tom Savage, QB

2. Joel Bitonio, OT/G- Nevada

3. Aaron Donald, DT, Penn St

4. Cody Latimer, Wr, Indiana

5. Stanley Jean Baptiste, CB.

Biggest losers during the draft process

1. Cyrus Kouandjio, OT, Alabama

2. Will Sutton, DT, Arizona State

3. AJ McCarron, QB, Alabama

4. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State

5. Colt Lyerla, TE

6. Seantrel Henderson, OT, Miami (FL)

Mid to Late round players I like

1.Terrance West, RB, Towson

2. Storm Johnson, RB, UCF

3. Trai Turner, OG, LSU

4. Bashaud Breeland, CB, Clemson

5. Charles Sims, RB, West Virginia 

6. Joe Don Duncan, TE, Dixie State

7. Keith Wenning, QB, Ball State

8. Caraun Reid, DT, Princeton

9. Jaylen Watkins, CB, Florida

10. Jared Abbrederis, WR, Wisconsin

11. C.J Fiedorowicz, TE, Iowa

12. Phillip Gaines, CB, Rice
13. Jordan Tripp, LB, Montana

Please feel free to give feedback, comments appreciated. Enjoy the draft.