Value Based Drafting Part Two- Year to Year Positional Fluctuation

Welcome to part two of drafting the best fantasy football team available. In part one I covered the definition of Value Based Drafting (VBD), which in essence is about drafting players who provide good value where you select them. Looking at the point differential between the top players of the position we find that even though the elite QB's score the most points, the gap between them and the rest of the position is not as large as in the RB or TE groups. We move onto the year to year percentage differences in positions. 

Position Fluctuation

Here are the percentages for the amount of players who stay in the top 10 from the previous year:

2011                                 2012
QB- 50%                           60%
RB- 60%                            50%
WR- 50%                          40%

TE- 20%                            50%

As you can see the QB position remains just as a fluid as the rest of the positions. Combine that with the gap between Brees/Rodgers and the rest of the position it makes it clear that it isn't worth drafting a QB early if you want value. You are better off taking a chance on RB in the first two rounds and hope at least one of them pans out. Another thing to take out of this is the fact that if you don't get Graham or Gronk this year just wait till the end. With the position being so volatile focus on getting RB/WR in the mid rounds and then take one or two flyers in the late rounds. Your chances of picking a top 10 TE are not as bad as if you do the same in the other two positions.

Depth All Over

Lets now look at where the top 10 players of the three main positions have been drafted over the past two years:

2012
QB                                                              RB                                               WR
Drew Brees  Rd 1 346                   Adrian Peterson Rd 3 307       Calvin Johnson Rd 1 220
Aaron Rodgers Rd 1  344 (-2)       Doug Martin Rd 4 263 (-44)    Brandon Marshall Rd 3 217 (-3)
Tom Brady Rd 1 340 (-6)              Arian Foster Rd 1 262 (-45)    Dez Bryant Rd 4 208 (-12)
Cam Newton Rd 2 323 (-23)     Marshawn Lynch Rd 2 247 (-60) AJ Green Rd 3 203 (-17)
Robert Griffin III Rd 7 318 (-28) Alfred Morris Rd 15 241 (-66)   Demaryious Thomas Rd 5 197 (-23)
Peyton Manning  Rd 5 311 (-35)  Ray Rice Rd 1 222 (-85)           Vincent Jackson Rd 6 188 (-34)
Matt Ryan Rd 4 305 (-41)         CJ Spiller Rd 8 212 (-95)           Eric Decker Rd 6 184 (-38)
Tony Romo Rd 6 279 (-67)       Jamaal Charles Rd 3 205 (-102) Andre Johnson Rd 2 184 (-38)
Andrew Luck  Rd 9 276 (-70)   Trent Richardson Rd 3 204 (-103) Julio Jones Rd 2 183 (-39)
Russell Wilson Rd 15 276 (-70) Frank Gore Rd 4 203 (-104)       Roddy White Rd 3 177 (-45)
Matthew Stafford Rd 2 276 (-70) Stevan Ridley Rd 8 199 (-108) Marques Colston Rd 4 171 (-51)
Andy Dalton Rd 11 250 (-96)    Matt Forte Rd 2 177 (-128)        Wes Welker Rd 2 171 (-51)

2011
QB                                                                RB                                            WR
Aaron Rodgers Rd 1 397               Ray Rice Rd 1 297                         Calvin Johnson Rd 2 263     
Drew Brees Rd 2 392 (-5)             LeSean McCoy Rd 1 280 (-17)      Jordy Nelson Rd 8 216 (-47)
Cam Newton Rd 14 369 (-28)      M Jones Drew Rd 1 262 (-35)       Wes Welker Rd 3 214 (-49)
Tom Brady Rd 1 366 (-31)           Arian Foster Rd 1 250 (-47)           Victor Cruz Rd 9 206 (-57)
Matthew Stafford Rd 8 343 (-54) Marshawn Lynch Rd 6 216 (-81)    Larry Fitzgerald Rd 2 189 (-74)
Eli Manning Rd 9 281 (-62)          Michael Turner Rd 2 213 (-84)        Steve Smith Rd 7 185 (-78) 
Tony Romo Rd 4 276 (-67)          Adrian Peterson Rd 1 189 (-108)   Roddy White Rd 2 178 (-85)
Matt Ryan Rd 5 273 (-70)            Ryan Matthews Rd 3 187 (-110)    Percy Harvin Rd 5 175 (-88)
Phillip Rivers Rd 3 255 (-88)        Michael Bush Rd 9 186 (-111)        Mike Wallace Rd 3 171 (-92)
Mark Sanchez Rd 12 237 (-106)  Darren Sproles Rd 11 185 (-112)   Vincent Jackson Rd 2 170 (-93)
Michael Vick Rd 1 233 (-110)      Steven Jackson Rd 2 182 (-115)    Hakeem Nicks Rd 2 161 (-102)
Ryan Fitzpatrick Rd 14 223 (-120) Frank Gore Rd 2 177 (-120)        Marques Colston Rd 4 160 (-103)

Even if you don't draft a QB in the first two rounds you have a good chance to get a QB which can become a top 12 in the late late rounds. Every year there is a Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford or  Russell Wilson who gets drafted in the last couple of rounds who becomes a Top 10 QB. You don't need to panic and reach for a QB in the first couple of rounds and sacrifice better value players at other positions.

Just look at this example from a 12 team league I was in last year- two teams with the first two picks of the draft and look how their teams worked out.

Team A with the first pick-
1st rd-Aaron Rodgers+2nd rd -Steven Jackson+ 3rd rd Trent Richardson+ 9th rd Lance Moore.

and

Team B with the second pick-
1st rd-Arian Foster+2nd rd Adrian Peterson+ 3rd rd AJ Green+ 9th rd RG3

Now look at the season totals for each team:

Team A total score-346+162+204+ 140=852

Team B Total score-262+307+ 203+ 318= 1090

There's a huge difference between the two teams. Option A waited until the 5th round for a WR and missed out on the elite players while Option B ended up with two of the top 3 RB and a Top 3 WR while getting RG3 who only scored 28 less points then Rodgers. The simple fact is if you take a QB early you are playing catch up the rest of the draft trying to select lottery tickets at the RB/WR with less chance of success. 

So to sum up VBD:

• Don't select a QB in the first three rounds at least. Your missing out on the chance of elite RB's and WR's and you won't have a sizeable points advantage within the QB situation.
• Try and take as many chances at RB in the early rounds. With the rise of running back by committee and the increase in passing around the league the depth at RB runs out quickly. You rely on picking up Alfred Morris in the late rounds, they are rare. Getting three RB's out of your first five picks is ideal.
• If you don't get one of the top 5 WR's you can afford to wait until the middle rounds where players routinely become top 10 picks. 
• If you don't get Graham or Gronk just wait until the late rounds. Guys like Jordan Cameron and Zach Sudfeld have great upside for where they are being drafted. If they don't work out then you can pick up someone on waiver wire and you lost a lot in your investment.
• Never ever draft a DST or Kicker before the last three rounds. Both positions fluctuate from year to year as the rest and you can always choose DST's on a game by game basis by looking at favourable mathhups. Don't be the fool who drafts the Seahawks in Round 8-10. Statistics show that the No.1 drafted DST NEVER is the first one at the end of the season. Take a flier at the end with upside rather than wasting a pick which could be better spent.