2013 Week 3 Fantasy Football TE Rankings

Week 3 Fantasy Football TE Rankings- 

1. Jimmy Graham (NO) vs ARI

2. Julius Thomas (DEN) vs OAK

3. Jason Witten (DAL) vs STL

4. Jordan Cameron (CLE) @ MIN

5. Antonio Gates (SD) @ TEN

6. Owen Daniels (HOU) @ BAL

7. Jared Cook (STL) @ DAL

8. Jermichael Finley (GB) @ CIN

9. Greg Olsen (CAR) vs NYG

10. Brandon Myers (NYG) @ CAR

11. Tony Gonzalez (ATL) @ MIA

12. Martellus Bennett (CHI) @ PIT

13. Tyler Eifert (CIN) vs GB

14. Coby Fleener (IND) @ SAN

15.  Vernon Davis (SF) vs  IND

16. Jermaine Gresham (CIN) vs GB

17. Charles Clay (MIA) @ Falcons 

18. Kellen Winslow (NYJ) vs BUF

19. Jordan Reed (WAS) vs  DET 

20. Brandon Pettigrew (DET) @ WAS

22. Kyle Rudolph (MIN) vs CLE

23. Vance McDonald (SAN) vs IND

24. Fred Davis (WAS) vs DET

2013 Week 3 Fantasy Football RB Rankings

Here are week 3 RB fantasy rankings:

1. Marshawn Lynch (SEA) vs Jaguars- After scoring three touchdowns against the 49ers last week Lynch gets to face the worst team in the NFL. A given

2. LeSean McCoy (PHI) vs Chiefs

3. Adrian Peterson (MIN) vs Browns- The Browns have a very good defencd but you just can't bet against Peterson getting his.

4. Jamaal Charles (KC) @ Eagles

5. Alfred Morris (WAS) vs Lions- If the Washington line can stop Suh and Fairley in the middle the rest of the Lions defence isn't that good. Look for another 100 yards and a score from Morris.

6. Frank Gore (SF) vs Colts- The 49ers have really struggled to run the ball the first two matches but they have faced the Packers and Seahwaks. The Colts has one of the worst defences in the league so Gore should score well.

7. Doug Martin (TB) @ Patriots- Tough matchup for Martin but he is going to get a lot of work with QB Josh Freeman struggling to complete passes.

8. Chris Johnson (TEN) vs Chargers- The Titans are running it more then any other team so CJ2K will get plenty of opportunities against an average Chargers defence.

9. Matt Forte (CHI) @ Steelers- Forte has finally become the feature back we hoped him to be and his being used heavilt in Marc Trestmans offence. A tough matchup but he looks to good to drop out of the Top 10.

10. C.J. Spiller (BUF) vs Jets- Another tough matchup for Spiller but as EJ Manual gets more comfortable under centre teams will have to stop focusing on Spiller.

11. Arian Foster (HOU) @ Ravens- Foster looks slower this year then the last couple of years. Lets hope he improves as the year progresses. Baltimore are still not quite there on the defensive side so the matchup isn't as daunting as in previous years.

12. Reggie Bush (DET) vs Washington- If Bush can play with his knee injury then he has a fantastic matchup vs Washington.

13. Joique Bell (DET) @ Washington- If Bush can't play Bell is going to get a lot of time. My start of the week.

14. Bernard Pierce (BAL) vs Texans- With Ray Rice doubtful Pierce will have an opportunity to show people how good a RB he is. Runs hard downhill and is a lot more physical then Rice is. 

15.  Knowshon Moreno (DEN) vs Raiders- After last weeks performance against the Giants a lot of people have Moreno ranked higher but he just doesn't get the goaline carries. Both of his touchdowns came from outside the redzone. The loss of LT Ryan Clady also doesn't help but he should score at least a touchdown.

16. Darren Sproles (NO) vs Cardinals- Sproles has yet to score but the Cardinals don't seem to be the defence they were last year so look for him to catch a lot of passes.

17. Darren McFadden (OAK) @ Broncos- Hard matchup for McFadden as the Raiders will most likely be chasing the Broncos all day on the scoreboard. He may get the majority of his yards from catches this week.

18. Trent Richardson (IND) @ 49ers- New team and a better situation for Richardson but I think he will struggle this week with a new playbook. The 49ers rush defence is overrated but the Colts O Line is really shaky so i'm not expecting great things this week for him.

19. Rashard Mendenhall (ARI) @ Saints- Mendenhall looks good so far and should continue to be relevant against an average Saints defence.

20. Giovani Bernard (CIN) vs Packers- Bernard is the beat pass catching RB that the Bengals have so he's going to be needed to keep up with the Packers offence. The Bengals have to realise that they have to involve him a lot more for them to win. 

21. Lamar Miller (MIA) vs Falcons- Miller meets an Atlanta defence struck down by injuries. If he can't produce against this defence he is going to struggle against most of them

22. Stevan Ridley (NE) vs Buccaneers- The Bucs maybe having trouble on offence but their rush defence is one of the best in the league. With a lack of a NE passing offence the Bucs will stack the box to stop Ridley. 

23. DeAngelo Williams (CAR) vs Giants- The Giants defence suck bad, especially their linebackers, DeAngelo should get some yards if his O Line can hold up.

24. DeMarco Murray (DAL) vs Rams- Rams have defended the run well so far and the Cowboys O Line has struggled especially in the middle where Murray excels. Not expecting a big day form Murray.

25. David Wilson (NYG) @ Panthers- They have to give him the ball to win it's as simple as that. Not the best matchup for him but he's all the Giants have so they have to use him.

26. James Starks (GB) @ Bengals- After running for 100 yards last week in place of concucussed Eddy Lacy, Starks returns back down to reality against a solid Bengals team. 

27. Daryl Richardson (STL) @ Cowboys

28. Ryan Mathews (SD) @ Titans- Titans look really good defensively this year, Matthews is a bust for me this week, just like most weeks.

29. Robert Turbin (SEA) vs Jaguars- My sleeper flex play of the week. If the Seahawks get out to a big lead in the 2nd half look for Lynch to get rested for the 4th quarter giving Turbin some time to get some fantasy points.

30. Bilal Powell (NYJ) vs Bills- 

31.Ben Tate (HOU) @ Ravens

32. Jason Snelling (ATL) @ Dolphins

33. Fred Jackson (BUF) @ Jets

34. Danny Woodhead (SD) @ Titans

35. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (CIN) vs Packers

36. Jacquizz Rodgers (ATL) @ Dolphins

37. Christopher Ivory (NYJ) vs Bills

38. Montee Ball (DEN) vs Raiders

39. Pierre Thomas (NO) vs Cardinals

40. Andre Ellington (ARI) @ Saints

41. Michael Bush (CHI) @ Steelers

42. Bryce Brown (PHI) vs Chiefs

43. Isaiah Pead (STL) @ Cowboys

44. Ahmad Bradshaw (IND) @ 49ers

45. Kendall Hunter (SF) vs Colts

46. Ronnie Hillman (DEN) vs Raiders

47. Felix Jones (PIT) vs Bears 

48. Willis McGahee (CLE) @ Vikings

49. Roy Helu (WAS) vs Lions

50. Mark Ingram (NO) vs Cardinals

51. Mike Tolbert (CAR) vs Giants

52. Jordan Todman (JAC) @ Seahawks

53. Da’Rel Scott (NYG) @ Panthers

54. Marcel Reece (OAK) @ Broncos

55. Chris Ogbannaya (CLE) @ Vikings

Week 3 Fantasy Football QB Rankings

Week 3 is upon us and it's here are my Fantasy rankings for Quarterbacks this week: (standard scoring settings) 1. Peyton Manning  vs Oak- Despite the loss of his LT Ryan Clady for the rest of the season Manning is going up against the Raiders. Expect a big night throwing.  2. Colin Kaepernick vs Colts- A rough night against the Seahawks last week but Kap will return closer to his Week 1 ways by playing a porous Colts defence.  3. Drew Brees vs Cardinals- The Cards defence is not as good as last years so Brees should have time to throw all game and get some good stats after two weeks of below average scores for him. 4. Aaron Rodgers @ Bengals-  After throwing for 480 yards vs Washington last week Rodgers comes up against a far better defence however he's playing far too well to drop down very far. 5. Matthew Stafford @ Washington- Stafford is the next lucky QB to throw against this horrible Washington defence. Even with Reggie Bush injured Stafford is going to get yards and touchdowns.  6. RGIII vs Lions- Despite the struggles of RG3 he has been accruing stats in garbage time. This weeks game should be another high scoring match and there are signs that he may look to run a little bit more. 7. Michael Vick vs Chiefs-   8. Andrew Luck @ 49ers-  The addition of RB Trent Richardson from the Browns means that the opposition can't cheat to the pass and sets up the playaction for Luck. The 49ers secondary is not as good as their advertised and they will struggle to contain Wayne, Hilton and Fleener. 9. Eli Manning @ Giants- The Panthers secondary as been hit with injuries and the Giants still don't trust RB David Wilson with a big workload so Eli will again will be throwing it too his very good WR corp. 10. Matt Ryan @ Dolphins- With Steven Jackson out for a few weeks Ryan is going to be throwing even more and against this Dolphins front 7 he will have to get rid of the ball quickly but he's been making yards so i'm not worried about his output this week. 11. Russell Wilson vs Jaguars- They will run it  a lot but Wilson should throw a couple of touchdowns and run for one himself against the worst team in the NFL. 12. Tony Romo vs Rams- Cowboys are struggling to run and the Rams front 7 is good so look for Romo to continue to throw for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns with a turnover or two. It's almost a science. 13. Sam Bradford @ Cowboys- Bradford has looked solid in the first two matches with his new receiving weapons. An injury to starting RB Daryl Richardson may force the Rams to pass a bit more against a Cowboys defence who has struggled pass rushing so far. 14.  Tom Brady vs Buccaneers-  If Rob Gronkowski is back for this game then he moves up a couple of spots but it's still risky. Even though the Bucs are terrible at rushing the passer the secondary is very good. CB Darrelle Revis will lock down Brady's only veteran WR available, Julian Edleman so he will have to rely on rookies Aaron Dobson and Kenbrall Thompkins again. I think the Patriots will improve their offence from last weeks failures but not by much and if you have a QB with a more favourable matchup maybe it's a good week to be safe. 15. Ryan Tannehill vs Falcons- Has looked good this season and meets a Atlanta defence struck down with injuries. Sean Weatherspoon, the best coverage LB for the Falcons is out for half the season and veteran CB Asante Samuel is questionable for this match. All this means Tannehill should have time to throw down field to Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline.  16. Cam Newton vs Giants-  If Cam Newton doesn't produce against a questionable Giants defence I am dropping him further down the list. The playcalling by Mike Shula is just too conservative and the offence as a whole has been neglected by the organisation for too many years. Newton just doesn't have a good supporting cast and his coaches stink, not a good situation for fantasy football owners who selected him in the 4th/5th round. 17. Phillip Rivers @ Titans- Coach Mike McCoy has done a great job in making Rivers a competent QB so far this season. He's getting rid of the ball quickly and to open receivers. I this continues against a solid Titans DST then it could be time to take Rivers seriously as a borderline No.1 QB. 18. Andy Dalton vs Packers- Dalton played really poorly on Monday night against the Steelers missing open receivers and generally being indecisive. He has to do a better job against the Packers whose offence is going to score.  19.  Carson Palmer @ Saints- A juicy matchup for Palmer is tempered by the fact that WR's Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Roberts are injured and the Saints defence has surprisingly been quite solid so limit your expectation of Palmer this week. 20.  Alex Smith @ Eagles-  21. Terrelle Pryor @ Broncos- Pryor is going to have garbage time in this game to pad his stats as the Raiders probably will be playing catchup the entire game.  22.  Matt Schaub @ Ravens- If Andre Johnson isn't able to play due to the concussion he suffered last week this could be a poor day for Schaub. Ravens at home is always tough for opposition QB's. 23. Jay Cutler @ Pittsburgh- It seems evry week Cutler will throw a couple of touchdowns but will give away possession with bone headed plays. Despite the obvious physical talents he just doesn't seem to learn from his mistakes, of which there are many. The Steelers will be a tough test for him this week. 24. Josh Freeman @ Patriots- Freeman is not going to be the Bucs QB next season that is for sure. The question is whether he is going to last half way through this season before he is replaced coach Greg Schiano. Freeman just isn't accurate enough to be a starting NFL QB. 25. Ben Roethlisberger vs Bears- Tough matchup in a short week, Roethlisberger is missing a big physical receiver he can throw it up to when he just needs to get rid of the ball. It's gong to be a long year for him in this Todd Haeye offence. 26.  EJ Manual @ Jets- I really like Manuel as the future of the Bills but this week he's playing a very good Jets defence and he may struggle. 27. Joe Flacco vs Houston- Flacco is being found out for the average QB he is. If he doesn't have receivers who can make plays off his inaccurate throws then he's going to struggle to make completions. Against the Texans he is going to really struggle just like he did last weekend against the Browns. 28. Jake Locker vs Chargers 29. Geno Smith vs Bills- Too many turnovers committed by this rookie who seems out of his depth, should be sitting on the bench learning but there is no one else to over take him 30. Christian Ponder vs Browns- You Should NEVER start for any fantasy team, it's only a matter of time till Matt Cassell is starting for the Vikings.
31. Chad Henne vs Seahawks - It's going to be a long long day for Henne as he goes up to Seattle to face the best defence in the league.  32. Brian Hoyer @ Vikings- No Trent Richardson to help him any more. Hoyer replaces Brandon Weeden to face a defence who made Cutler uncomfortable last week. He gets Josh Gordon back from suspension but this offence is just not good, avoid at all costs. Next up the running back rankings.

Value Based Drafting Part Two- Year to Year Positional Fluctuation

Welcome to part two of drafting the best fantasy football team available. In part one I covered the definition of Value Based Drafting (VBD), which in essence is about drafting players who provide good value where you select them. Looking at the point differential between the top players of the position we find that even though the elite QB's score the most points, the gap between them and the rest of the position is not as large as in the RB or TE groups. We move onto the year to year percentage differences in positions. 

Position Fluctuation

Here are the percentages for the amount of players who stay in the top 10 from the previous year:

2011                                 2012
QB- 50%                           60%
RB- 60%                            50%
WR- 50%                          40%

TE- 20%                            50%

As you can see the QB position remains just as a fluid as the rest of the positions. Combine that with the gap between Brees/Rodgers and the rest of the position it makes it clear that it isn't worth drafting a QB early if you want value. You are better off taking a chance on RB in the first two rounds and hope at least one of them pans out. Another thing to take out of this is the fact that if you don't get Graham or Gronk this year just wait till the end. With the position being so volatile focus on getting RB/WR in the mid rounds and then take one or two flyers in the late rounds. Your chances of picking a top 10 TE are not as bad as if you do the same in the other two positions.

Depth All Over

Lets now look at where the top 10 players of the three main positions have been drafted over the past two years:

2012
QB                                                              RB                                               WR
Drew Brees  Rd 1 346                   Adrian Peterson Rd 3 307       Calvin Johnson Rd 1 220
Aaron Rodgers Rd 1  344 (-2)       Doug Martin Rd 4 263 (-44)    Brandon Marshall Rd 3 217 (-3)
Tom Brady Rd 1 340 (-6)              Arian Foster Rd 1 262 (-45)    Dez Bryant Rd 4 208 (-12)
Cam Newton Rd 2 323 (-23)     Marshawn Lynch Rd 2 247 (-60) AJ Green Rd 3 203 (-17)
Robert Griffin III Rd 7 318 (-28) Alfred Morris Rd 15 241 (-66)   Demaryious Thomas Rd 5 197 (-23)
Peyton Manning  Rd 5 311 (-35)  Ray Rice Rd 1 222 (-85)           Vincent Jackson Rd 6 188 (-34)
Matt Ryan Rd 4 305 (-41)         CJ Spiller Rd 8 212 (-95)           Eric Decker Rd 6 184 (-38)
Tony Romo Rd 6 279 (-67)       Jamaal Charles Rd 3 205 (-102) Andre Johnson Rd 2 184 (-38)
Andrew Luck  Rd 9 276 (-70)   Trent Richardson Rd 3 204 (-103) Julio Jones Rd 2 183 (-39)
Russell Wilson Rd 15 276 (-70) Frank Gore Rd 4 203 (-104)       Roddy White Rd 3 177 (-45)
Matthew Stafford Rd 2 276 (-70) Stevan Ridley Rd 8 199 (-108) Marques Colston Rd 4 171 (-51)
Andy Dalton Rd 11 250 (-96)    Matt Forte Rd 2 177 (-128)        Wes Welker Rd 2 171 (-51)

2011
QB                                                                RB                                            WR
Aaron Rodgers Rd 1 397               Ray Rice Rd 1 297                         Calvin Johnson Rd 2 263     
Drew Brees Rd 2 392 (-5)             LeSean McCoy Rd 1 280 (-17)      Jordy Nelson Rd 8 216 (-47)
Cam Newton Rd 14 369 (-28)      M Jones Drew Rd 1 262 (-35)       Wes Welker Rd 3 214 (-49)
Tom Brady Rd 1 366 (-31)           Arian Foster Rd 1 250 (-47)           Victor Cruz Rd 9 206 (-57)
Matthew Stafford Rd 8 343 (-54) Marshawn Lynch Rd 6 216 (-81)    Larry Fitzgerald Rd 2 189 (-74)
Eli Manning Rd 9 281 (-62)          Michael Turner Rd 2 213 (-84)        Steve Smith Rd 7 185 (-78) 
Tony Romo Rd 4 276 (-67)          Adrian Peterson Rd 1 189 (-108)   Roddy White Rd 2 178 (-85)
Matt Ryan Rd 5 273 (-70)            Ryan Matthews Rd 3 187 (-110)    Percy Harvin Rd 5 175 (-88)
Phillip Rivers Rd 3 255 (-88)        Michael Bush Rd 9 186 (-111)        Mike Wallace Rd 3 171 (-92)
Mark Sanchez Rd 12 237 (-106)  Darren Sproles Rd 11 185 (-112)   Vincent Jackson Rd 2 170 (-93)
Michael Vick Rd 1 233 (-110)      Steven Jackson Rd 2 182 (-115)    Hakeem Nicks Rd 2 161 (-102)
Ryan Fitzpatrick Rd 14 223 (-120) Frank Gore Rd 2 177 (-120)        Marques Colston Rd 4 160 (-103)

Even if you don't draft a QB in the first two rounds you have a good chance to get a QB which can become a top 12 in the late late rounds. Every year there is a Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford or  Russell Wilson who gets drafted in the last couple of rounds who becomes a Top 10 QB. You don't need to panic and reach for a QB in the first couple of rounds and sacrifice better value players at other positions.

Just look at this example from a 12 team league I was in last year- two teams with the first two picks of the draft and look how their teams worked out.

Team A with the first pick-
1st rd-Aaron Rodgers+2nd rd -Steven Jackson+ 3rd rd Trent Richardson+ 9th rd Lance Moore.

and

Team B with the second pick-
1st rd-Arian Foster+2nd rd Adrian Peterson+ 3rd rd AJ Green+ 9th rd RG3

Now look at the season totals for each team:

Team A total score-346+162+204+ 140=852

Team B Total score-262+307+ 203+ 318= 1090

There's a huge difference between the two teams. Option A waited until the 5th round for a WR and missed out on the elite players while Option B ended up with two of the top 3 RB and a Top 3 WR while getting RG3 who only scored 28 less points then Rodgers. The simple fact is if you take a QB early you are playing catch up the rest of the draft trying to select lottery tickets at the RB/WR with less chance of success. 

So to sum up VBD:

• Don't select a QB in the first three rounds at least. Your missing out on the chance of elite RB's and WR's and you won't have a sizeable points advantage within the QB situation.
• Try and take as many chances at RB in the early rounds. With the rise of running back by committee and the increase in passing around the league the depth at RB runs out quickly. You rely on picking up Alfred Morris in the late rounds, they are rare. Getting three RB's out of your first five picks is ideal.
• If you don't get one of the top 5 WR's you can afford to wait until the middle rounds where players routinely become top 10 picks. 
• If you don't get Graham or Gronk just wait until the late rounds. Guys like Jordan Cameron and Zach Sudfeld have great upside for where they are being drafted. If they don't work out then you can pick up someone on waiver wire and you lost a lot in your investment.
• Never ever draft a DST or Kicker before the last three rounds. Both positions fluctuate from year to year as the rest and you can always choose DST's on a game by game basis by looking at favourable mathhups. Don't be the fool who drafts the Seahawks in Round 8-10. Statistics show that the No.1 drafted DST NEVER is the first one at the end of the season. Take a flier at the end with upside rather than wasting a pick which could be better spent.