Sunday, 22 September 2013

2013 Week 3 Fantasy Football TE Rankings

Week 3 Fantasy Football TE Rankings- 
1. Jimmy Graham (NO) vs ARI
2. Julius Thomas (DEN) vs OAK
3. Jason Witten (DAL) vs STL
4. Jordan Cameron (CLE) @ MIN
5. Antonio Gates (SD) @ TEN
6. Owen Daniels (HOU) @ BAL
7. Jared Cook (STL) @ DAL
8. Jermichael Finley (GB) @ CIN
9. Greg Olsen (CAR) vs NYG
10. Brandon Myers (NYG) @ CAR
11. Tony Gonzalez (ATL) @ MIA
12. Martellus Bennett (CHI) @ PIT
13. Tyler Eifert (CIN) vs GB
14. Coby Fleener (IND) @ SAN
15.  Vernon Davis (SF) vs  IND
16. Jermaine Gresham (CIN) vs GB
17. Charles Clay (MIA) @ Falcons 
18. Kellen Winslow (NYJ) vs BUF
19. Jordan Reed (WAS) vs  DET 
20. Brandon Pettigrew (DET) @ WAS
22. Kyle Rudolph (MIN) vs CLE
23. Vance McDonald (SAN) vs IND
24. Fred Davis (WAS) vs DET


2013 Week 3 Fantasy Football RB Rankings

Here are week 3 RB fantasy rankings:

1. Marshawn Lynch (SEA) vs Jaguars- After scoring three touchdowns against the 49ers last week Lynch gets to face the worst team in the NFL. A given
2. LeSean McCoy (PHI) vs Chiefs
3. Adrian Peterson (MIN) vs Browns- The Browns have a very good defencd but you just can't bet against Peterson getting his.
4. Jamaal Charles (KC) @ Eagles
5. Alfred Morris (WAS) vs Lions- If the Washington line can stop Suh and Fairley in the middle the rest of the Lions defence isn't that good. Look for another 100 yards and a score from Morris.
6. Frank Gore (SF) vs Colts- The 49ers have really struggled to run the ball the first two matches but they have faced the Packers and Seahwaks. The Colts has one of the worst defences in the league so Gore should score well.
7. Doug Martin (TB) @ Patriots- Tough matchup for Martin but he is going to get a lot of work with QB Josh Freeman struggling to complete passes.
8. Chris Johnson (TEN) vs Chargers- The Titans are running it more then any other team so CJ2K will get plenty of opportunities against an average Chargers defence.
9. Matt Forte (CHI) @ Steelers- Forte has finally become the feature back we hoped him to be and his being used heavilt in Marc Trestmans offence. A tough matchup but he looks to good to drop out of the Top 10.
10. C.J. Spiller (BUF) vs Jets- Another tough matchup for Spiller but as EJ Manual gets more comfortable under centre teams will have to stop focusing on Spiller.
11. Arian Foster (HOU) @ Ravens- Foster looks slower this year then the last couple of years. Lets hope he improves as the year progresses. Baltimore are still not quite there on the defensive side so the matchup isn't as daunting as in previous years.
12. Reggie Bush (DET) vs Washington- If Bush can play with his knee injury then he has a fantastic matchup vs Washington.
13. Joique Bell (DET) @ Washington- If Bush can't play Bell is going to get a lot of time. My start of the week.
14. Bernard Pierce (BAL) vs Texans- With Ray Rice doubtful Pierce will have an opportunity to show people how good a RB he is. Runs hard downhill and is a lot more physical then Rice is. 
15.  Knowshon Moreno (DEN) vs Raiders- After last weeks performance against the Giants a lot of people have Moreno ranked higher but he just doesn't get the goaline carries. Both of his touchdowns came from outside the redzone. The loss of LT Ryan Clady also doesn't help but he should score at least a touchdown.
16. Darren Sproles (NO) vs Cardinals- Sproles has yet to score but the Cardinals don't seem to be the defence they were last year so look for him to catch a lot of passes.
17. Darren McFadden (OAK) @ Broncos- Hard matchup for McFadden as the Raiders will most likely be chasing the Broncos all day on the scoreboard. He may get the majority of his yards from catches this week.
18. Trent Richardson (IND) @ 49ers- New team and a better situation for Richardson but I think he will struggle this week with a new playbook. The 49ers rush defence is overrated but the Colts O Line is really shaky so i'm not expecting great things this week for him.
19. Rashard Mendenhall (ARI) @ Saints- Mendenhall looks good so far and should continue to be relevant against an average Saints defence.
20. Giovani Bernard (CIN) vs Packers- Bernard is the beat pass catching RB that the Bengals have so he's going to be needed to keep up with the Packers offence. The Bengals have to realise that they have to involve him a lot more for them to win. 
21. Lamar Miller (MIA) vs Falcons- Miller meets an Atlanta defence struck down by injuries. If he can't produce against this defence he is going to struggle against most of them
22. Stevan Ridley (NE) vs Buccaneers- The Bucs maybe having trouble on offence but their rush defence is one of the best in the league. With a lack of a NE passing offence the Bucs will stack the box to stop Ridley. 
23. DeAngelo Williams (CAR) vs Giants- The Giants defence suck bad, especially their linebackers, DeAngelo should get some yards if his O Line can hold up.
24. DeMarco Murray (DAL) vs Rams- Rams have defended the run well so far and the Cowboys O Line has struggled especially in the middle where Murray excels. Not expecting a big day form Murray.
25. David Wilson (NYG) @ Panthers- They have to give him the ball to win it's as simple as that. Not the best matchup for him but he's all the Giants have so they have to use him.
26. James Starks (GB) @ Bengals- After running for 100 yards last week in place of concucussed Eddy Lacy, Starks returns back down to reality against a solid Bengals team. 
27. Daryl Richardson (STL) @ Cowboys
28. Ryan Mathews (SD) @ Titans- Titans look really good defensively this year, Matthews is a bust for me this week, just like most weeks.
29. Robert Turbin (SEA) vs Jaguars- My sleeper flex play of the week. If the Seahawks get out to a big lead in the 2nd half look for Lynch to get rested for the 4th quarter giving Turbin some time to get some fantasy points.
30. Bilal Powell (NYJ) vs Bills- 
31.Ben Tate (HOU) @ Ravens
32. Jason Snelling (ATL) @ Dolphins
33. Fred Jackson (BUF) @ Jets
34. Danny Woodhead (SD) @ Titans
35. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (CIN) vs Packers
36. Jacquizz Rodgers (ATL) @ Dolphins
37. Christopher Ivory (NYJ) vs Bills
38. Montee Ball (DEN) vs Raiders
39. Pierre Thomas (NO) vs Cardinals
40. Andre Ellington (ARI) @ Saints
41. Michael Bush (CHI) @ Steelers
42. Bryce Brown (PHI) vs Chiefs
43. Isaiah Pead (STL) @ Cowboys
44. Ahmad Bradshaw (IND) @ 49ers
45. Kendall Hunter (SF) vs Colts
46. Ronnie Hillman (DEN) vs Raiders
47. Felix Jones (PIT) vs Bears 
48. Willis McGahee (CLE) @ Vikings
49. Roy Helu (WAS) vs Lions
50. Mark Ingram (NO) vs Cardinals
51. Mike Tolbert (CAR) vs Giants
52. Jordan Todman (JAC) @ Seahawks
53. Da’Rel Scott (NYG) @ Panthers
54. Marcel Reece (OAK) @ Broncos
55. Chris Ogbannaya (CLE) @ Vikings

Friday, 20 September 2013

Week 3 Fantasy Football QB Rankings



Week 3 is upon us and it's here are my Fantasy rankings for Quarterbacks this week:
(standard scoring settings)


1. Peyton Manning  vs Oak- Despite the loss of his LT Ryan Clady for the rest of the season Manning is going up against the Raiders. Expect a big night throwing. 
2.
 Colin Kaepernick vs Colts- A rough night against the Seahawks last week but Kap will return closer to his Week 1 ways by playing a porous Colts defence.
 3. Drew Brees vs Cardinals- The Cards defence is not as good as last years so Brees should have time to throw all game and get some good stats after two weeks of below average scores for him.
4. Aaron Rodgers @ Bengals-  After throwing for 480 yards vs Washington last week Rodgers comes up against a far better defence however he's playing far too well to drop down very far.
5. Matthew Stafford @ Washington- Stafford is the next lucky QB to throw against this horrible Washington defence. Even with Reggie Bush injured Stafford is going to get yards and touchdowns.
 6. RGIII vs Lions- Despite the struggles of RG3 he has been accruing stats in garbage time. This weeks game should be another high scoring match and there are signs that he may look to run a little bit more.
7. Michael Vick vs Chiefs-  
8. Andrew Luck @ 49ers-  The addition of RB Trent Richardson from the Browns means that the opposition can't cheat to the pass and sets up the playaction for Luck. The 49ers secondary is not as good as their advertised and they will struggle to contain Wayne, Hilton and Fleener.
9. Eli Manning @ Giants- The Panthers secondary as been hit with injuries and the Giants still don't trust RB David Wilson with a big workload so Eli will again will be throwing it too his very good WR corp.
10. Matt Ryan @ Dolphins- With Steven Jackson out for a few weeks Ryan is going to be throwing even more and against this Dolphins front 7 he will have to get rid of the ball quickly but he's been making yards so i'm not worried about his output this week.
11. Russell Wilson vs Jaguars- They will run it  a lot but Wilson should throw a couple of touchdowns and run for one himself against the worst team in the NFL.
12. Tony Romo vs Rams- Cowboys are struggling to run and the Rams front 7 is good so look for Romo to continue to throw for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns with a turnover or two. It's almost a science.
13. Sam Bradford @ Cowboys- Bradford has looked solid in the first two matches with his new receiving weapons. An injury to starting RB Daryl Richardson may force the Rams to pass a bit more against a Cowboys defence who has struggled pass rushing so far.
14 Tom Brady vs Buccaneers-  If Rob Gronkowski is back for this game then he moves up a couple of spots but it's still risky. Even though the Bucs are terrible at rushing the passer the secondary is very good. CB Darrelle Revis will lock down Brady's only veteran WR available, Julian Edleman so he will have to rely on rookies Aaron Dobson and Kenbrall Thompkins again. I think the Patriots will improve their offence from last weeks failures but not by much and if you have a QB with a more favourable matchup maybe it's a good week to be safe.
15. Ryan Tannehill vs Falcons- Has looked good this season and meets a Atlanta defence struck down with injuries. Sean Weatherspoon, the best coverage LB for the Falcons is out for half the season and veteran CB Asante Samuel is questionable for this match. All this means Tannehill should have time to throw down field to Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline. 
16. Cam Newton vs Giants-  If Cam Newton doesn't produce against a questionable Giants defence I am dropping him further down the list. The playcalling by Mike Shula is just too conservative and the offence as a whole has been neglected by the organisation for too many years. Newton just doesn't have a good supporting cast and his coaches stink, not a good situation for fantasy football owners who selected him in the 4th/5th round.
17. Phillip Rivers @ Titans- Coach Mike McCoy has done a great job in making Rivers a competent QB so far this season. He's getting rid of the ball quickly and to open receivers. I this continues against a solid Titans DST then it could be time to take Rivers seriously as a borderline No.1 QB.
18. Andy Dalton vs Packers- Dalton played really poorly on Monday night against the Steelers missing open receivers and generally being indecisive. He has to do a better job against the Packers whose offence is going to score. 
19.  Carson Palmer @ Saints- A juicy matchup for Palmer is tempered by the fact that WR's Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Roberts are injured and the Saints defence has surprisingly been quite solid so limit your expectation of Palmer this week.
20.  Alex Smith @ Eagles- 
21. Terrelle Pryor @ Broncos- Pryor is going to have garbage time in this game to pad his stats as the Raiders probably will be playing catchup the entire game. 
22.  Matt Schaub @ Ravens- If Andre Johnson isn't able to play due to the concussion he suffered last week this could be a poor day for Schaub. Ravens at home is always tough for opposition QB's.
23. Jay Cutler @ Pittsburgh- It seems evry week Cutler will throw a couple of touchdowns but will give away possession with bone headed plays. Despite the obvious physical talents he just doesn't seem to learn from his mistakes, of which there are many. The Steelers will be a tough test for him this week.
24. Josh Freeman @ Patriots- Freeman is not going to be the Bucs QB next season that is for sure. The question is whether he is going to last half way through this season before he is replaced coach Greg Schiano. Freeman just isn't accurate enough to be a starting NFL QB.
25. Ben Roethlisberger vs Bears- Tough matchup in a short week, Roethlisberger is missing a big physical receiver he can throw it up to when he just needs to get rid of the ball. It's gong to be a long year for him in this Todd Haeye offence.
26.  EJ Manual @ Jets- I really like Manuel as the future of the Bills but this week he's playing a very good Jets defence and he may struggle.
27. Joe Flacco vs Houston- Flacco is being found out for the average QB he is. If he doesn't have receivers who can make plays off his inaccurate throws then he's going to struggle to make completions. Against the Texans he is going to really struggle just like he did last weekend against the Browns.
28. Jake Locker vs Chargers
29. Geno Smith vs Bills- Too many turnovers committed by this rookie who seems out of his depth, should be sitting on the bench learning but there is no one else to over take him
30. Christian Ponder vs Browns- You Should NEVER start for any fantasy team, it's only a matter of time till Matt Cassell is starting for the Vikings.








31. Chad Henne vs Seahawks - It's going to be a long long day for Henne as he goes up to Seattle to face the best defence in the league. 
32. Brian Hoyer @ Vikings- No Trent Richardson to help him any more. Hoyer replaces Brandon Weeden to face a defence who made Cutler uncomfortable last week. He gets Josh Gordon back from suspension but this offence is just not good, avoid at all costs.

Next up the running back rankings.












Sunday, 1 September 2013

Value Based Drafting Part Two- Year to Year Positional Fluctuation

Welcome to part two of drafting the best fantasy football team available. In part one I covered the definition of Value Based Drafting (VBD), which in essence is about drafting players who provide good value where you select them. Looking at the point differential between the top players of the position we find that even though the elite QB's score the most points, the gap between them and the rest of the position is not as large as in the RB or TE groups. We move onto the year to year percentage differences in positions. 


Position Fluctuation

Here are the percentages for the amount of players who stay in the top 10 from the previous year:

2011                                 2012
QB- 50%                           60%
RB- 60%                            50%
WR- 50%                          40%
TE- 20%                            50%

As you can see the QB position remains just as a fluid as the rest of the positions. Combine that with the gap between Brees/Rodgers and the rest of the position it makes it clear that it isn't worth drafting a QB early if you want value. You are better off taking a chance on RB in the first two rounds and hope at least one of them pans out. Another thing to take out of this is the fact that if you don't get Graham or Gronk this year just wait till the end. With the position being so volatile focus on getting RB/WR in the mid rounds and then take one or two flyers in the late rounds. Your chances of picking a top 10 TE are not as bad as if you do the same in the other two positions.


Depth All Over

Lets now look at where the top 10 players of the three main positions have been drafted over the past two years:

2012
QB                                                              RB                                               WR
Drew Brees  Rd 1 346                   Adrian Peterson Rd 3 307       Calvin Johnson Rd 1 220
Aaron Rodgers Rd 1  344 (-2)       Doug Martin Rd 4 263 (-44)    Brandon Marshall Rd 3 217 (-3)
Tom Brady Rd 1 340 (-6)              Arian Foster Rd 1 262 (-45)    Dez Bryant Rd 4 208 (-12)
Cam Newton Rd 2 323 (-23)     Marshawn Lynch Rd 2 247 (-60) AJ Green Rd 3 203 (-17)
Robert Griffin III Rd 7 318 (-28) Alfred Morris Rd 15 241 (-66)   Demaryious Thomas Rd 5 197 (-23)
Peyton Manning  Rd 5 311 (-35)  Ray Rice Rd 1 222 (-85)           Vincent Jackson Rd 6 188 (-34)
Matt Ryan Rd 4 305 (-41)         CJ Spiller Rd 8 212 (-95)           Eric Decker Rd 6 184 (-38)
Tony Romo Rd 6 279 (-67)       Jamaal Charles Rd 3 205 (-102) Andre Johnson Rd 2 184 (-38)
Andrew Luck  Rd 9 276 (-70)   Trent Richardson Rd 3 204 (-103) Julio Jones Rd 2 183 (-39)
Russell Wilson Rd 15 276 (-70) Frank Gore Rd 4 203 (-104)       Roddy White Rd 3 177 (-45)
Matthew Stafford Rd 2 276 (-70) Stevan Ridley Rd 8 199 (-108) Marques Colston Rd 4 171 (-51)
Andy Dalton Rd 11 250 (-96)    Matt Forte Rd 2 177 (-128)        Wes Welker Rd 2 171 (-51)

2011
QB                                                                RB                                            WR
Aaron Rodgers Rd 1 397               Ray Rice Rd 1 297                         Calvin Johnson Rd 2 263     
Drew Brees Rd 2 392 (-5)             LeSean McCoy Rd 1 280 (-17)      Jordy Nelson Rd 8 216 (-47)
Cam Newton Rd 14 369 (-28)      M Jones Drew Rd 1 262 (-35)       Wes Welker Rd 3 214 (-49)
Tom Brady Rd 1 366 (-31)           Arian Foster Rd 1 250 (-47)           Victor Cruz Rd 9 206 (-57)
Matthew Stafford Rd 8 343 (-54) Marshawn Lynch Rd 6 216 (-81)    Larry Fitzgerald Rd 2 189 (-74)
Eli Manning Rd 9 281 (-62)          Michael Turner Rd 2 213 (-84)        Steve Smith Rd 7 185 (-78) 
Tony Romo Rd 4 276 (-67)          Adrian Peterson Rd 1 189 (-108)   Roddy White Rd 2 178 (-85)
Matt Ryan Rd 5 273 (-70)            Ryan Matthews Rd 3 187 (-110)    Percy Harvin Rd 5 175 (-88)
Phillip Rivers Rd 3 255 (-88)        Michael Bush Rd 9 186 (-111)        Mike Wallace Rd 3 171 (-92)
Mark Sanchez Rd 12 237 (-106)  Darren Sproles Rd 11 185 (-112)   Vincent Jackson Rd 2 170 (-93)
Michael Vick Rd 1 233 (-110)      Steven Jackson Rd 2 182 (-115)    Hakeem Nicks Rd 2 161 (-102)
Ryan Fitzpatrick Rd 14 223 (-120) Frank Gore Rd 2 177 (-120)        Marques Colston Rd 4 160 (-103)

Even if you don't draft a QB in the first two rounds you have a good chance to get a QB which can become a top 12 in the late late rounds. Every year there is a Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford or  Russell Wilson who gets drafted in the last couple of rounds who becomes a Top 10 QB. You don't need to panic and reach for a QB in the first couple of rounds and sacrifice better value players at other positions.

Just look at this example from a 12 team league I was in last year- two teams with the first two picks of the draft and look how their teams worked out.

Team A with the first pick-
1st rd-Aaron Rodgers+2nd rd -Steven Jackson+ 3rd rd Trent Richardson+ 9th rd Lance Moore.

and

Team B with the second pick-
1st rd-Arian Foster+2nd rd Adrian Peterson+ 3rd rd AJ Green+ 9th rd RG3

Now look at the season totals for each team:

Team A total score-346+162+204+ 140=852

Team B Total score-262+307+ 203+ 318= 1090

There's a huge difference between the two teams. Option A waited until the 5th round for a WR and missed out on the elite players while Option B ended up with two of the top 3 RB and a Top 3 WR while getting RG3 who only scored 28 less points then Rodgers. The simple fact is if you take a QB early you are playing catch up the rest of the draft trying to select lottery tickets at the RB/WR with less chance of success. 

So to sum up VBD:

  • Don't select a QB in the first three rounds at least. Your missing out on the chance of elite RB's and WR's and you won't have a sizeable points advantage within the QB situation.
  • Try and take as many chances at RB in the early rounds. With the rise of running back by committee and the increase in passing around the league the depth at RB runs out quickly. You rely on picking up Alfred Morris in the late rounds, they are rare. Getting three RB's out of your first five picks is ideal.
  • If you don't get one of the top 5 WR's you can afford to wait until the middle rounds where players routinely become top 10 picks. 
  • If you don't get Graham or Gronk just wait until the late rounds. Guys like Jordan Cameron and Zach Sudfeld have great upside for where they are being drafted. If they don't work out then you can pick up someone on waiver wire and you lost a lot in your investment.
  • Never ever draft a DST or Kicker before the last three rounds. Both positions fluctuate from year to year as the rest and you can always choose DST's on a game by game basis by looking at favourable mathhups. Don't be the fool who drafts the Seahawks in Round 8-10. Statistics show that the No.1 drafted DST NEVER is the first one at the end of the season. Take a flier at the end with upside rather than wasting a pick which could be better spent.


Tuesday, 27 August 2013

Value Based Drafting Part One- Getting the most out of your fantasy football draft.


It's that time of year again. Over the next week, thousands of fantasy football leagues around the world will be selecting their dream teams hoping that over the course of the NFL season the players they select win them glory. Drafting a good team is not a guarantee you will win your league. Injuries, suspensions and substitutions will affect your fantasy football team throughout the season and identifying the right players to pick up on waivers is crucial.

Conventional wisdom for players old and new of fantasy football is grab a QB with one of your very first picks as they score the most points. However the value is in fact in the running back and wide receiver position in the early stages and I will show you why in this article. This focus on drafting for value has become the most popular mode amongst fantasy football experts and gives you a distinct advantage against your opponents if you draft correctly.

The principle of Value Based Drafting (VBD) described at Footballguys.com is this: The value of a player is determined not by the number of points he scores, but by how much he outscores his peers at his particular position. 

So your identifying the gap between the top players at their position and the rest, how much of a drop off is their within position. The bigger gap the more valuable the elite players are at that position and showing the importance of getting one of those elite options before they run out. You are also comparing the points advantage you have or don't have against opposition teams. For example-

                          QB           RB            WR             TE                 Cumulative Score        
Team A              12             15 (+7)      16 (+6)         7                             50
Team B               18 (+6)     8               10               10  (+3)                    46

The individual positional point total is not the emphasis, it's the advantage you have in the cumulative score which really matters. You may have better QB's and TE's then your opponents but if you have average RB's and WR's then your're going to lose more often then not. With VBD defined lets look at some of the key indicators for creating the best possible team.

Point Differential

The gap between the elite player and the rest of the pack is crucial to understand the true value of drafting the right players at the right position early in drafts.

Lets look at the point differentials of the top 12 of the QB,RB and WR positions over the past two years using NFL.com standard scoring settings. Their total season score is in red and how big the points gap was between a player and the top player in that position is in the brackets.

2012

QB                                              RB                                   WR
Drew Brees  346                   Adrian Peterson  307       Calvin Johnson 220
Aaron Rodgers   344 (-2)       Doug Martin 263 (-44)    Brandon Marshall 217 (-3)
Tom Brady  340 (-6)              Arian Foster 262 (-45)    Dez Bryant 208 (-12)
Cam Newton  323 (-23)     Marshawn Lynch 247 (-60) AJ Green 203 (-17)
Robert Griffin III  318 (-28) Alfred Morris 241 (-66)   Demaryious Thomas 197 (-23)
Peyton Manning  311 (-35)  Ray Rice 222 (-85)           Vincent Jackson 188 (-34)
Matt Ryan  305 (-41)         CJ Spiller 212 (-95)           Eric Decker 184 (-38)
Tony Romo  279 (-67)       Jamaal Charles 205 (-102) Andre Johnson 184 (-38)
Andrew Luck 276 (-70)   Trent Richardson 204 (-103) Julio Jones 183 (-39)
Russell Wilson 276 (-70) Frank Gore 203 (-104)       Roddy White 177 (-45)
Matthew Stafford 276 (-70) Stevan Ridley 199 (-108) Marques Colston 171 (-51)
Andy Dalton  250 (-96)    Matt Forte 177 (-128)        Wes Welker 171 (-51)

2011

QB                                                RB                                      WR
Aaron Rodgers 397               Ray Rice 297                         Calvin Johnson 263     
Drew Brees  392 (-5)             LeSean McCoy 280 (-17)      Jordy Nelson 216 (-47)
Cam Newton  369 (-28)      M Jones Drew 262 (-35)       Wes Welker 214 (-49)
Tom Brady 366 (-31)           Arian Foster 250 (-47)           Victor Cruz 206 (-57)
Matthew Stafford 343 (-54) Marshawn Lynch 216 (-81)    Larry Fitzgerald 189 (-74)
Eli Manning 281 (-62)          Michael Turner 213 (-84)        Steve Smith 185 (-78) 
Tony Romo 276 (-67)          Adrian Peterson 189 (-108)   Roddy White 178 (-85)
Matt Ryan 273 (-70)            Ryan Matthews 187 (-110)    Percy Harvin  175 (-88)
Phillip Rivers 255 (-88)        Michael Bush  186 (-111)        Mike Wallace 171 (-92)
Mark Sanchez 237 (-106)  Darren Sproles  185 (-112)   Vincent Jackson 170 (-93)
Michael Vick 233 (-110)      Steven Jackson 182 (-115)    Hakeem Nicks 161 (-102)
Ryan Fitzpatrick 223 (-120) Frank Gore 177 (-120)        Marques Colston 160 (-103)

As you can see with the point differential gaps between the positional groups are significant. RB's have the biggest disparity with the depth running out quickly. Once your're down to the 6th or 7th best RB the gap is nearly 100 points to the top RB. Compare that to QB where in the 7th place QB in 2012, Matt Ryan was only 41 points behind Drew Brees. With the WR position the gap is even closer with only 51 points separating the top 12. Breaking it down on a per game here is another perspective:
  • The point differential between the top QB of 2012 Drew Brees, and the 10th Russell Wilson was 70 points or just 4.4 points per match.
  • The point differential between the top RB of 2012 Adrian Peterson and the the 10th Frank Gore was 104 points or just 6.5 points per match.
A two points per game difference may not seem much but it all adds up. On a week to week basis you're going to win more then you'll lose if you have better running backs then your opponents.

The one position where it seems crucial to pick up the top players is TE.
If we go back to the 2011 season the gap between the top two TE's, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham was 100-140 points greater than the tenth best TE which gave people with those players a massive advantage over the rest of the league at such a shallow position. If you don't get one out of Graham, Gronkowski, Witten then I would wait until the later rounds to take a chance on one of the many options there.

That concludes the first part of VBD drafting series. Next is a focus on the fluctuation of positions.


Thursday, 25 April 2013

The NFL Draft 2013- Production vs Potential




NFL DRAFT 2013


Welcome to my quick brief of the NFL Draft which starts in a couple of hours. The lack of star players this year hides the fact that this is the most unpredictable draft ever and the most entertaining one at that. There are going to be a lot of movements and trades as teams look to get the players they want. Just because the top players in this draft are Tackles doesn't make it boring if you are a fan of football. The exciting aspect I find about the draft is that it can change the fortunes of teams very quickly, for better and for worse. The best teams use the draft over free agency to improve the team. The latest Collective Bargaining Agreement has meant First round picks are a lot cheaper and teams can take a lot more risks on game changers. However if General Managers and Coaches commit to an early pick and they flop then they can be the end of their employment very quickly. So here are some quick points before the team breakdowns:

Overated Five Players who are going to get drafted before they should:
  • QB Geno Smith
  • WR Tavon Wilson
  • OLB Barkevious Mingo
  • DE Ezekiel Ansah
  • RB Eddie Lacy
Five players who are going to fall: 
  • WR Cordarelle Patterson
  • CB Xavier Rhodes
  • OLB Jarvis Jones
  • G Chance Warmack
  • DT Shariff Floyd
Five sleepers who may creep into the first round:
  • WR Robert Woods 
  • S Matt Elam
  • OT/G Justin Pugh
  • QB EJ Manuel
  • OT/G Kyle Long
High Risers- the players who have risen up the boards recently:
  • WR Justin Hunter
  • CB DJ Hayden
  • DT Sylvester Williams
  • OT/G Justin Pugh
  • WR Tavon Austin

Arizona Cardinals

Current Picks: 7, 38, 69, 103, 140, 174, 219
Team Needs: QB, RB, OL, LB, S. 
A very good defensive side last year came to nothing as the offence spluttered and struggled to score. After releasing several veterans including QB Kevin Kolb and S Adrian Wilson the team has major needs in key locations.
Thankfully by trading for QB Carson Palmer, the need to draft a QB early is not a pressing need. New head coach Bruce Arians has a background in offence so their first pick will probably be on that side.  What is needed is upgrading the worst offensive line in the NFL which allowed a record 58 sacks last year. There lack of pass rush on the outside is also a need but if they can't protect Palmer then they will have no chance in winning games and they will be back in the bottom 10 teams of the League.
Perceived best case scenario- Tackle Lane Johnson slips to them at 7. Very unlikely as teams will move up to 6 to grab him as the Browns are looking to trade back to gain more picks in the draft.
Actual Best case scenario- They select one of the two top guards, Cooper or Warmack. Both are perhaps Top 5 players in the whole draft but guards don't usually get drafted in the top half of the draft because they are seen as unsexy picks. The current tackles on the squad, Levi Brown and Bobbie Massie are competent when healthy so it's not as big a need. If the Cardinals are more worried about filling their greatest need with great prospects rather then making a splash then they should pick guard. In the second round perhaps picking up a pass rusher or safety which may have fallen to 38. Picking a Quarterback and Running Back in the later rounds to speculate on will be the plan also.
Surprise scenario- Selecting DE Ezekiel Ansah. He is a project and extremely raw but has immense potential. It's just too high for a player who may not pan out. Then selecting a Quarterback in the second round and waiting till the later rounds to address the OL. Arians  reign as coach may not last long if this is the case.

Atlanta Falcons

Current Picks: 30, 60, 92, 127, 133, 163, 198, 236, 243, 244, 249
Team Needs: TE, OL, DE, CB. They are one of the contenders of the NFC but they have big holes in several areas especially on defence. They need a good draft to maintain the momentum from last season. The loss of two starting CB's and the starting RT is a concern. They also need to upgrade the pass rush as this seems to be an issue year in and year out.

Perceived best case scenario- One of the solid CB's are still left on the board such as DJ Hayden, Desmond Trufant or Jamar Taylor to fill in the loss of both Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson.
Actual Best case scenario- Like most teams in the back half the Falcons will look for trading back options with teams looking to climb back up for a QB. However I don't see the demand for it. Ideally if TE Tyler Eifert fell to them this would be a fantastic addition. Future Hall of Fame TE Tony Gonzalez has signed on for another year but will almost certainly retire after this season. Eifert is by far the most complete TE in this years draft class and could learn from the greatest player ever to learn the position. Would give QB Matt Ryan another weapon to work with. The CB position is deep this year so they could theoretically pick up a starter in the 2nd/3rd round.
Surprise scenario- There are rumours thaGeneral Manager Thomas Dimitroff maybe one of the few teams willing to trade up for a player. Maybe for Eifert or one of the top CB's. He did it a couple of years ago to claim WR Julio Jones and that worked out well. Due to the perceived weakness of this draft and a lot of teams wanting to move down the Falcons could get a very good deal to move up.


Baltimore Ravens

Current Picks: 32, 62, 94, 129, 130, 165, 168, 199, 200, 203, 238, 247
Team Needs: OL, WR, LB, CB, S
The reigning Superbowl champions have been decimated by key players retiring or moving on to other teams. Gone are Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Anquan Boldin. Left tackle is a huge need but there won't be a player worth drafting where they are drafting. GM Ozzie Newsome is one of the most respected GM's in the NFL. He continually seems to find great talent all throught the draft, they certainly aren't afraid to select players with question marks. OLB Terrell Suggs is the best example of that.
Perceived best case scenario- Grabbing a MLB such as Manti T'eo or Kevin Minter to shore up the middle of the offense. They could also grab one of the top safeties if there hasn't been an early run on them in the first round.
Actual Best case scenario- The Ravens are smart not too reach for players because of need so I just them picking the best player on their draft board in the WR/S/LB group. Alec Ogletree is a perfect example of a player who may drop to the Ravens because of character concerns despite being the best linebacker on the field. WR Keenen Allen is another productive college player who may drop into the Ravens lap at the end of the first round.
Surprise scenario- A surprise scenario perhaps would be reaching for a tackle like Menalik Watson and slide Michael Oher of the Blindside fame to the left side. Watson has only played one year of Division
I college football but he has incredible upside and apparently interviewed extremely well. Maybe the Ravens take a risk here for the chance of solidifying their offensive line,


Buffalo Bills

Current Picks: 8, 41, 71, 105, 143, 177
Team Needs: QB, WR, OL, LB, S
The joker of the pack the Bills are the biggest enigma in the Top 10. With a real need at QB they could be the team to select one at No 8. However they have other needs in the interior line, wide receiver and pass rush. The question is where they are willing to wait on QB's till the second round or whether they are looking to move up back in the late first round. The Bills are in a bind, all the top picks are looking to be gone by 8.
Perceived best case scenario- If the top QB prospect Geno Smith falls here then Buffalo maybe pressured into picking him. It all depends on whether new coach Doug Marrone wants his QB from Syracuse Ryan Nassib with him. Nassib would be a big reach though at 8 so value wise they may select a pass rusher such as Barkevious Ansah or Jarvis Jones.
Actual Best case scenario- After losing guard Andre Levitre to free agency the Bills should bolster the O Line with Cooper or Warmack, that would be te best value and it's a safe move. Unfortunately GM Buddy Nix has shown in the past to make questionable picks so I don't have faith in this happening.
Surprise scenario- The Bills may decide that they need to get more explosive on the offensive side and select the most electrifying WR prospect in Tavon Austin. I think this would be huge reach, he is tiny and may not be able to stand up to the hits from NFL players in the long run.

Carolina Panthers

Current Picks: 14, 44, 108, 148, 182
Team Needs: OL, WR, DT, CB, S
The Panthers have been slated for defensive tackle in mock drafts for months now, so naturally it probably won't happen. The secondary needs help and they are in need of a right tackle after releasing Jeff Otah last year. 
Perceived best case scenario-  Getting one of the DTs who may slip in the draft due to pressures on other areas. Sheldon Richardson and Star Lotulelei would be great options or maybe Shariff Floyd if he really tumbled. 
Actual Best case scenario- One of the few teams where the perceived and the actual scenarios are the same. A DT is essential and there is good value at this stage of the draft. 
Surprise scenario- Depending on the run of CB's, the Panthers could surprise us by selecting a CB like Xavier Rhodes or DJ Hayden. They may in fact think they can get a solid DT at pick No.44.

Chicago Bears

Current Picks: 20, 50, 117, 153, 188
Team Needs: WR, OL, LB, CB
For years now the Bears neglected the Offensive Line and it ultimately produced a GM and head coaching position. QB JAy Cutler has been a lamb to the slaughter behind this porous line so it came as a breath of fresh air they tried to rectify it in free agency. Unfortunately the signings of Jermon Bushrod, Matt Slauson and Eben Britton aren't seen by many as solving the problem. The interior line is still week. The release of legendary Bears MLB Brian Urlacher has left a huge hole in the centre of the defence. WR is perceived as being a need but they just drafted Alshon Jeffrey last year who shows promise.
Perceived best case scenario- Neither Cooper and Warmack will drop this far so the Bears will probably focus on the LB position. They will have the pick of the bunch so it depends on their taste. The hype of Manti T'eo could be it or the solid allround play of Kansas State Arthur Brown could be another. Georgia's Alec Ogletree is seen as the most explosive and talented but character concerns could dissuade the Bears from picking him.
Actual Best case scenario- In my opinion if TE Tyler Eifert is still on the board here the Bears should sprint for the podium. Not only is he by far the best TE prospect in the draft but he fills in two needs for the Bears. He has excellent hands so he creates mismatches against defences but he is also a solid blocker which the Bears also need. Many people feel that because the Martellus Bennett was signed from the Giants this offseason that the Bears are sorted in the position. He is a fantastic blocking TE but his lack of consistency catching the ball leaves sufficient question marks for Eifert to selected. The MLB position is one of the easiest to draft and there will be options in the later rounds fir the Bears if they took this route.
Surprise scenario- A WR here would be a huge surprise and reach in the first round but they would have a few options to choose. OT/G Justin Pugh from Syracuse could launch himself into the first round. Teams like his versatility as he can play both tackle and guard, something the Bears need to get depth in.

Cincinnati Bengals

Current Picks: 21, 37, 53, 84, 118, 156, 190, 197, 240, 251
Team Needs: RB, OL, DE, LB, S
Perceived best case scenario- People are pencilling in RB Eddy Lacy from Alabama as the 20th pick. If they do that though I am automatically labelling the Bengals losers of the 1st round. This class of RB's is very weak and Lacy would be a reach when you could get similar talent in the 3rd round. Alec Ogletree is also a popular pick as head coach Marvin Lewis is not afraid to take risks on players with character concerns. 
Actual Best case scenario- There is depth in both RB and LB positions so if the Bengals are smart they will wait for the 2nd round where they have two picks to address those needs. I think Lacy could still be there at 37. Right Tackle is still a concern though and DJ Fluker would be a great addition if he is still available at 21. Very similar to AAndre Smith in terms of power and size but without the character issues and for the fraction of the price. Would be a great pickup and would improve the run game. 
Surprise scenario- The Bengals selected two WR's last year in the middle rounds but they could still do with an upgrade next to Pro Bowler AJ Green. Cordarelle Patterson is extremely raw but he ha high upside and the Bengals aren't afraid in investing in those kinds of players. 

Cleveland Browns

Current Picks: 6, 68, 104, 139, 164, 175, 227
Team Needs: QB, WR, LB, CB
Finding another edge rusher for their new 3-4 will be high on Cleveland’s list, but receiver and cornerback should take center stage. A second elite corner to pair with Joe Haden would elevate Cleveland’s secondary. 
Perceived best case scenario- The Browns have made it no secret that they are looking to trade down for extra picks after giving up their second rounder in the supplemental draft last year for WR Josh Gordon. They are hoping Lane Johnson is till there by pick No. 6 which would draw interest. If Dion Jordan is there still they will have a long look at him as he could become a fantastic pass rusher. Of course the No.1 CB prospect Dee Milliner will highly likely be there and could make a great tandem with Pro Bowler Joe Haden on the other side. If they can trade down a couple of spots there is still a high chance they can get one of these players and have extra picks in the future. 
Actual Best case scenario- It's looking likely that Lane Johnson won't get past Detroit one pick ahead of them and Jordan could be gone as well so Millener would make sense here. People are saying Ezekiel Ansah but I think that would be a reach for a player who is extremely raw to be selected in the top 6.
Surprise scenario- Current Browns QB Brandon Weeden had a horrific rookie season last year and with the change of management and ownership they may decide that choosing Geno Smith would be the best way to start a regime change. Many may not see this as a surprise but I just can't see Offensive Coordinator and former Chargers head coach Norv Turner thinking he can't mold Weeden into a competent QB yet. Smith would be a reach in the top 10 and may even drop into the 20's because of the question marks on him. A short sided decision if they select him here.


Dallas Cowboys

Current Picks: 18, 47, 80, 114, 151, 185
Team Needs: RB, OL, DE, S
The Cowboys owner and GM Jerry Jones constantly makes headlines for the decisions he makes, unfortunately they are usually bad. So bad that the team have only won one playoff game since 1996, easily becoming the most overrated NFL team. Jones personnel decision making has been questionable for years now and he faces a tough time addressing the many holes he has in his team.
Perceived best case scenario- If either of the two elite guards or safety Kenny Vaccaro are there they will be pretty ecstatic.
Actual Best case scenario- Unfortunately that will probably not occur and their is a distinct possibility that Jones will have to trade up to get them. It would be too early to grab a RB so they are really in a hard place with very little leverage. DJ Fluker could be an option if they wanted current RT Doug Free to move inside to the guard position but it's not a sexy pick and Jones loves a sexy pick.
Surprise scenario- If Vaccaro is gone then Jones might pull the trigger on another safety this early and beat the rush for them. Eric Reid from LSU would be good addition but it might be a little too soon for him in terms of value. A pass rusher like injured Tank Carradine would be a classic shock move by Jones. The thing is nothing is a surprise with the Cowboys any more.

Denver Broncos

Current Picks: 28, 58, 90, 125, 161, 234
Team Needs: RB, DT, DE, LB
The Broncos had one of the best free agencies this off season so they have very few weaknesses. The defensive side in the front seven is due for a makeover. 
Perceived best case scenario- After losing OLB Elvis Dumervil in a bizarre fax machine incident the team is now in need of a pass rusher. Florida State team mates Bjoern Werner and Tank Carradine are slated by many to be available at this time. 
Actual Best case scenario- Werner's drive and motor maybe a great pickup but if DT Sylvester Williams from North Carolina is still there I think need matches the value. 
Surprise scenario- Head coach John Fox loves his RB's and he's not happy with what he has on the roster at the moment. He could choose to select Eddy Lacy at this early stage to beat a rush for the RB. A CB as well could be an option despite signing Dominique Rodgers Cromartie to a one year deal. Champ Bailey is getting slower and slower every year and a replacement needs to be groomed.

Detroit Lions

Current Picks: 5, 36, 65, 132, 137, 171, 211, 245
Team Needs: OL, WR, DE, LB, CB
Detroit is in prime position to deal with either its void at OT or CB at No. 5 overall. It has a other major positions of need such as DE and WR but they can't afford to miss on there first selection. Losing both your starting tackles to free agency and retirement cannot be avoided. Even though CB depth is pitiful in Detroit they would rather focus on the pass rush on the defensive side of the ball in the early rounds.
Perceived and actual best case scenario- One of the tackles is left for them to simply pick. Fisher, Joeckal or Johnson can start immediately and contribute. It's really that simple. If the rush for them is early then they may have to trade up to get one, they cannot afford missing one of these tackles.
Surprise scenario- If they pass on one of the tackles it's only going to be for a pass rusher like Dion Jordan or Ezekeil Ansah, Ansah would be a immense reach in my opinion and you might as well pack your bags Jim Schwartz because you'll be gone by seasons end.

Green Bay Packers

Current Picks: 26, 55, 88, 122, 159, 167, 193, 232
Team Needs: RB, OL, DE, CB, LB
Every year they need a running back and every year they neglect to draft a high prospect at that position. It;s not the year to be drafting one high and Green Bay consistently are one of the best drafters in the NFL. Big gaps in the defence need to be sorted and the offensive line needs an infusion of talent. One of the hardest teams to figure where they will go in the 1st round.
Perceived best case scenario- A pass rusher falls to them or Tyler Eifert. They just don't seem to fit with the talent available at this situation.
Actual Best case scenario- They take the best player available and nobody complains.
Surprise scenario- They take a chance on Menalik Watson form Britain. Raw but a high upside, could shore up the offensive line and protect QB Aaron Rodgers for years to come. The Packers love picking WR's but I think they should address that in the later rounds.

Houston Texans

Current Picks: 27, 57, 89, 95, 124, 160, 195, 201, 233
Team Needs: WR, OL, NT, LB, CB
I've been saying it for years now but they need to get another WR to complement Andre Johnson. The lack of dynamic weapons for Matt Schaub is starting to show and if they don't grab one in the first round this year I think head coach Gary Kubiak should be on the chopping block. 
Perceived best case scenario- WR's like Justin Hunter or Robert Woods should be around for the taking at this position.
Actual Best case scenario- Again Tyler Eifert would be a name that fits a need. Owen Daniels is not getting younger and it would improve the passing game.
Surprise scenario- I have a suspicion that WR Cordarelle Patterson may slip to this position as is inability to run routes and maturity concerns may drop him out of the first round altogether. With Andre Johnson taking him under his wings he could help turn Patteroson into an eventual replacement for him. A high risk/ high reward pick.

Indianapolis Colts

Current Picks: 24, 86, 121, 192, 230, 254
Team Needs: RB, LB, DT, CB
After focusing almost entirely on the offensive side in last years draft this year the Colts need to bolster up the defensive side. The goal for Round 1 should be to bolster the front seven, either with an edge rusher or versatile lineman.
Perceived best case scenario- Grabbing a DT or a CB is important. Players such as DT's Datone Jones and Sylvester Williams maybe around there. 
Actual Best case scenario- The Colts may look to trade out of the first round for extra picks. There is plenty of CB depth so they should be able to pick up a decent one in the second round. Both Jones and Sylvester Williams would provide some pass rushing ability from the interior.
Surprise scenario- A linebacker such as Alec Ogletree could be an option as he provides pass rushing ability from the OLB.


Jacksonville Jaguars
Current Picks: 2, 33, 64, 98, 135, 169, 208
Team Needs: QB, OL, DE, CB, S
It should only come down to two players here, the tackle that Kansas didn't take or Dion Jordan. If the new Jags management would know what's best for their long term job security they will keep it simple and not reach for QB Geno Smith. This team is one of the least talented rosters out there and is going to need a slow rebuild. 
Perceived best case scenario- OLB Dion Jordan would fill a specific position that new head coach Gus Bradley wants, a linebacker stout against the run and a terror against the run. This team only recorded 20 sacks as a team the entire season last year the worst in the league, they need help. DT Shariff Floyd wouldn't be a surprise but I can't see the value in drafting him here when there are great left tackle prospects on the board still.
Actual Best case scenario- And yet I would take EricFisher/Luke Joeckal here. They lost starting tackle Eben Britton to free agency and it's not often you get the opportunity to draft a franchise left tackle. Give QB Blaine Gabbert a chance to score points. That's the only way you can win games in the NFL now, with the offence.
Surprise scenario- If they select QB Geno Smith here I'm automatically making the Jaguars the biggest losers of the draft. He maybe the best QB of the draft but it all amounts to nothing if you can't defend the guy. Current QB Blaine Gabbert has been given an unfair time- A lockout shortened rookie offseason, constant coaching changes and little receiving options to work. He needs to be given a chance to at least to show that the struggles offensively were not exclusively down to him. It's not like the Jags are only one player away from becoming relevant. Chances are they will have an early pick next year where the QB class is reported to be a lot stronger.


Kansas City Chiefs

Current Picks: 1, 63, 96, 99, 134, 170, 204, 207
Team Needs: OL, DE, LB, S
As much as the Chiefs are trying to garner interest in getting a team to trade up to the No.1 pick it's just not going to happen. The only easy pick of the entire draft the Chiefs election should be between Tackles Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckal. Other needs can be addressed in the later rounds.


Miami Dolphins

Current Picks: 12, 42, 54, 77, 82, 111, 146, 166, 217, 224, 205
Team Needs: OL, CB, RB
With the loss of starting LT Jake Long to the Rams the Dolphins are in a difficult position. They will almost certainly have to trade up to acquire one of the three elite tackle prospects. If not then a CB seems to be the logical answer.
Perceived best case scenario- Trading up to get the LT they need.
Actual Best case scenario- If the elite tackles are gone then perhaps one of the interior lineman or RT DJ Fluker who could move into guard if need be. If Dee Milliner slips he could be picked here.
Surprise scenario- Some have S Kenny Vaccaro going here which surprises me but he is a solid player and would certainly contribute immediately.

Minnesota Vikings

Current Picks: 23, 25, 52, 83, 102, 120, 155, 189, 213, 214, 229
Team Needs: WR, DT, LB, CB
Thanks to trading their best wide receiver, Percy Harvin, to the Seahawks the Vikings have two first round picks in the 20's. They have a lot of needs but should be able to solve a couple in the 1st round.
Perceived best case scenario- Grabbing a DL and a WR with picks 23 and 25 seems to be the most popular belief. There will be plenty of  WR options as well as linebacker options but LB's tend to slide. Many mock drafts have Manti T'eo going to the Vikings but I just don't see it. 
Actual Best case scenario- If DT Sylvester Williams is still there at No.23 I think the Vikings would love that situation. I also think that they can wait on receiver till the second round and address the CB situation. There will be plenty of options still at this stage and this would help fill the gap that Antoine Winfield left behind when he also signed with the Seahawks.
Surprise scenario-  Manti T'eo seems like a good fit but Arthur Brown or Kevin Minter may get selected by the Vikings instead of him. Both show more speed and athleticism and the ability to shed blocks.

New England Patriots

Current Picks: 29, 59, 91, 226, 235
Team Needs: WR, DE, DT, CB
One of the most frustrating teams to project, head coach and GM Bill Belichick is constantly picking unexpected players or in positions where their seems to be no immediate need. Maybe that is why he manages to keep this team competing for the Super Bowl for over a decade now. WR and CB seem to constantly be the two positions that the Patriots struggle to get right in the draft. However depth at DT and another DE are also areas of needs. The tough thing for the Patriots this year is the lack of picks, 5 in all which makes Belichick less able to wheel and deal picks like he loves to do.
Perceived best case scenario- If a CB such as DJ Hayden, Desmond Trufant or Jamar Taylor are available people believe the Patriots have to take them. If they can trade back to gain extra picks they will do that.
Actual Best case scenario- However the CB position is actually not a major area of need  in the 1st roundin my opinion. They have Aquib Tali and Alonzo Dennard who played exceptionally well down the stretch but unfortunately Talib got injured in the AFC championship game. Ras I Dowling, a high draft pick two years ago is still around he just needs to stay healthy. The main concern on the defensive side is still the lack of a pass rush. If they could someone like DT Sylvester Williams that would be a steal. If not then WR's such as Robert Woods, Justin Hunter and De Andre Hopkins maybe good options.
Surprise scenario- Belichick loves promising raw players and DL Margus Hunt fits the bill. A huge man originally from Estonia he is exactly the potential saturated player that the Patriots have taken in the past, just not in the first round.

New Orleans Saints

Current Picks: 15, 75, 109, 144, 183
Team Needs: OL, WR, LB, CB, S
This teams in a mess in so many positions on the defence and so few draft picks to rectify it. Changing from a 4-3 to a 3-4 scheme they are in obvious need of OLB but a bigger concern is the fact they lost their LT Bushrod in free agency. It's going to be a quiet draft for the Saints.
Perceived best case scenario- Barkevious Mingo or Jarvis Jones falls to them giving them the pass rush they need.
Actual Best case scenario- Mingo maybe gone but Jones should be their which is the best you could hope for where they are picking. He had the best production out of all the OLB prospects in this years draft.
Surprise scenario- Maybe a CB here or S Kenny Vaccaro, whoever they have drafted higher.


New York Giants

Current Picks: 19, 49, 81, 116, 152, 187, 225, 253
Team Needs: OL, LB, CB
The Giants have always had a 'pick the best talent at DE or WR' mentality for a while now. This year probably won't be the same but it should. Their linebacking core is terrible and the OL could do with upgrades on all positions. 
Perceived best case scenario- Ezekiel Ansah falls to them and they have a repeat of Jason Pierre- Paul from a couple of years ago.
Actual Best case scenario- Selecting LB Alec Ogletree would get the team a Top 10 talent that serves a major need. It makes to much sense. TE Tyler Eifert could also be a great pickup since they lost Martellus Bennett to free agency this offseason,
Surprise scenario- DJ Fluker would be a surprise because it would be the first time in a long time that they spent a high pick on OL.

New York Jets

Current Picks: 9, 13, 39, 72, 106, 141, 178, 215
Team Needs: QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, LB, CB
The most dysfunctional team in the entire NFL this team may have the greatest needs in the most positions, they are in total rebuild mode at the moment. The trade of their best player Darrell Revis to the Bucs for the 13th pick is the beginning of the rebuilding process. The problem is they still have Rex Ryan who should have been fired after last years debacle of a season. Now he knows he has to win now to survive. That's the worst position a franchise can be in- a terrible team where a coach makes desperate moves to keep his job. I really fear Ryan's going to reach for players and damage the team further.
Perceived best case scenario- There are so many options but if they can get another OLB like Barkevious Mingo, Jarvis Jones and one of the CB's to replace Revis then it could be seen as a success.
Actual Best case scenario- The problem is that the defence is not the problem. The offence is a mess right now in every position group. They should grab one of the elite guards at No.9 and then a pass rusher or CB at No.13. 
Surprise scenario- Tavon Austin at No.9 would provide a wow factor for the franchise but there are far more pressing needs for the team.

Oakland Raiders

Current Picks: 3, 66, 100, 172, 176, 205, 209
Team Needs: QB, TE, WR, OL, DT, LB, CB
The Raiders and the Jets are in the worst situation in the NFL, lack of talent plus cap restrictions because of disastrous contracts. The current management group are still cleaning up the late owner Al Davis's crazy tyrannical rule. This team is going to be one of the worst teams next year so they need to just pick the best player available.
Perceived best case scenario- Grabbing DT Shariff Floyd or DT Star Lotulelei would be the best options.
Actual Best case scenario- If they can trade back for someone who wants one of the tackles available then they could get extra picks and still get an elite DT position.

Philadelphia Eagles

Current Picks: 4, 35, 67, 101, 136, 210, 212, 218, 239
Team Needs: QB, OL, NT, DE, LB
The most intriguing team in the Top 5, what they do will dictate where the rest of the draft goes. They could draft a OLB, a tackle or Geno Smith. Chip Kelly's unique game plan means he may look for things in prospects which the rest of the NFL won't.
Perceived best case scenario- Lane Johnson tackle- fills a massive need as both their current tackles are returning from injuries. He is also the most athletic of the three top tackles whuch suits Kelly's fast paced offence perfectly.
Actual Best case scenario- Lane Johnson, simple as that.
Surprise scenario- Geno Smith wouldn't be too much of a surprise, nor Dion Jordan who was Kelly's star player at Oregon. EJ Manuel??

Pittsburgh Steelers

Current Picks: 17, 48, 79, 115, 150, 186, 206, 223
Team Needs: RB, TE, WR, OL, NT, LB, S
Lots of holes are emerging in this ageing team. They are trending on the way down.
Perceived best case scenario- Jarvis Jones or Kenny Vaccaro or Tyler Eifert.
Actual Best case scenario- They will be fortunate if any of these players slip to them, otherwise a CB will be a solid backup plan.
Surprise scenario- A WR like Cordarelle Patterson could be intriguing for a team lacking a big receiver with top end speed.

San Diego Chargers

Current Picks: 11, 45, 76, 110, 145, 179, 221,
Team Needs: WR, OL, NT, LB, CB
San Diego are in a pretty bad situation, they are in desperate need of OL help but all three top tackles and the two top guards will probably be gone. Does that mean they reach for DJ Fluker or do they go with CB or do they trade up and grab one of the elite OL's. An intriguing team.


San Francisco 49ers

Current Picks: 31, 34, 61, 74, 93, 128, 131, 157, 173, 180, 237, 246, 252
Team Needs: TE, DE, LB, S
They have the most selections in the entire draft which gives them a lot of flexibility to move up to grab players they covet. Safety is the biggest need for them as well as TE so I can see them going for a safety like Eric Reid. The strong get stronger. 

Seattle Seahawks

Current Picks: 56, 87, 123, 138, 158, 194, 220, 231, 241, 242
Team Needs: QB, OL, DT, LB
It's going to be a quiet first day for the Seahawks but that's ok because they won free agency. Acquiring Percy Harvin, Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett for reasonable deals makes this a dangerous team.

St. Louis Rams

Current Picks: 16, 22, 46, 78, 113, 149, 184, 222
Team Needs: RB, WR, OL, LB, CB, S
The Rams are in a position of power having two first round picks and they are in position to upgrade multiple spots. Safety and Offensive Line would be the two best spots for the Rams but linebacker and wide receiver could also be areas where they target. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Current Picks: 43, 73, 112, 126, 147, 181, 196
Team Needs: TE, DT, CB
Another team who won't participate too much in the first round due by trading for CB Darrelle Revis this week. The have done a great job fixing their biggest problem in FA which was their secondary. A pass catching TE would be good and extra pass rushers would make  the draft a successful one.

Tennessee Titans

Current Picks: 10, 40, 70, 97, 107, 142, 202, 216, 248
Team Needs: TE, OL, DE, DT, CB
Bringing in free agent Andy Levitre might leave the Titans a guard away from having an elite offensive line. If they can get Cooper or Warmack that would be a great addition which would open up holes for CJ2K to dominate like he did a couple of year ago. CB could be another option for a team with little flair and excitement.

Washington Redskins

Current Picks: 51, 85, 119, 154, 162, 191, 228
Team Needs: WR, OL, DE, LB, S
No pick in the top 50 means the Redskins can really only wait out the first day and hope players drop to them.