Tuesday, 12 June 2012

The Meteorological Match-up of the Millennium- Thunder vs Heat NBA Finals preview.



The NBA Finals have finally arrived.  The two teams that most casual fans were hoping would reach them are facing off in one of the most eagerly anticipated finals in recent history. Both teams were considered the pre-season favourites to meet in the final but such predictions rarely come to fruition. For the NBA and David Stern, the commissioner, this is a dream come true. The two most marketable teams, with the two best players in the game, facing off for the title- it doesn't get better than that.

Both teams have arrived in the finals via different paths. The Miami Heat's squad were famously put together in free agency two years ago with LeBron James and Chris Bosh joining Dwayne Wade, promising multiple titles and making South Beach the place to live. They made the Finals together the first time around but they lost to the Mavericks within six games. This year expectations were just as high and they have managed to battle their way into the finals again despite significant injuries to Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh.

The Oklahoma City Thunder, meanwhile, have had a remarkable turnaround.  From being the fourth worst team three seasons ago, to now being on the verge of a basketball dynasty. Building through the draft, they selected in succession; Kevin Durant in 2007, Russell Westbrook in 2008 and James Harden, 2009. They now have three players under 23 years old who are Top-5 in their positions.

The Thunder are playing in their first finals since 1996 when the team were called the Seattle Supersonics. That time the team lost to the greatest player of the day, Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls, in six games. Now the Thunder franchise plays arguably the greatest athlete the game has ever seen and the greatest team ever constructed by free agency. So who's going to win? I'll break the match-up into several fields:

 Talent
The Miami Heat have; the three-time and reigning MVP- LeBron James, the future Hall of Famer- Dwayne Wade and the multiple All-Star- Chris Bosh. Point guard Mario Chalmers can play, depending on the day but after the Top- 3 there is very little in the way of talent.
Oklahoma have the three time scoring champ Kevin Durant, the explosive point guard Russell Westbrook and the current sixth man of the year, James Harden, as their Top-3. They also have athletic defensive specialists in Serge Ibaka and Thabo Sefolosha.
Advantage: Thunder

Form
Miami have had to work hard to get to the finals, first battling through the Pacers without Chris Bosh and then being taken to a 7th Game by an ageing Celtics squad. LeBron dominated the last two games of the Celtics series and Bosh made crucial contributions but Wade is coming off the worst play-off performances in his career.
Oklahoma on the other hand, have just come from two games down against the most in-form team in the play-offs, the Spurs, to win four games in a row and close the series. Not to mention they convincingly beat the previous two NBA champions, the Mavericks and Lakers, in the lead up.  They are playing as well as anyone could hope. Kevin Durant has been instrumental in the Thunder’s success throughout the play-offs and both Westbrook and Harden have stepped up when need be.
Advantage: Thunder

Experience
The Heat were in the finals last year with almost the same squad, so the players will not be over-awed by the experience. For LeBron this will be third time lucky in the finals but Wade was victorious in the 2006 championship so he knows what it takes to win one.
This is the first time to that the Thunder’s young stars have played in the finals but they have Kendrick Perkins and Derek Fisher on their squad, who have a combined six titles, playing for other teams.
Advantage: Heat

Depth
When the Top-3 of the Heat aren't firing they have little behind them to help offset that. With their three maximum contracts creating cap issues, the remainder of the squad is made up of young players and older, past it, veterans who have joined the team for the chance to win a championship before they retire. This top-heavy approach has meant they have struggled to compete without Bosh and Wade at full capacity.
The Thunder have perhaps the deepest squad in the NBA. They can afford to drop a player of James Harden’s ability to the bench because they have Sefolosha to start. They also have Nick Collison on the bench who is an effective forward/centre substitute for Ibaka and Perkins. Throw in the long range specialists Cook and Fisher as well and you have a team that runs deep into the bench of players who can contribute.
Advantage:  Thunder

Summary
Both teams have explosive offences which can score in bunches. Defensively, the Heat may be a little bit better on the perimeter with Wade, LeBron and Battier but the Thunder have the better interior defence with Ibaka, Perkins and Durant. The Thunder are going to have a huge advantage inside with rebounding as the Heat have very little size up front. Another weakness of the Heat is their slackness in transition defence, this was especially evident vs the Celtics who aren't really known for scoring off the fast break. If they struggled against the Celtics how are they going to stop the best team in fast break points- the Thunder? The Thunder love to take advantage of their young, explosive players and attack off any opposition turnover. This could be a very short series if the Heat don't hustle on defence.

For the Heat to win this series they need LeBron to have at least a couple of games like his Game 6 performance vs the Celtics. They need Chris Bosh to contribute on both ends, especially rebounding. They especially need Wade to snap out of the funk he has been in the last couple of weeks and they need some consistent contribution from their bench. However, even with all that, they could find themselves down against the Thunder. Durant is the most unstoppable offensive player right now, even with LeBron on him he will still find ways to get at least 30 points per game. Wade can keep Harden largely under wraps but the biggest problem for the Heat is who is going to defend Westbrook? He's too powerful for Chalmers and too quick for Wade right now in his injured state. They could rotate LeBron over to him but that would mean Durant has a favourable match-up. A situation they don't want.

It really is a pick-your-poison situation for the Heat, they can't contain everyone, they can only hope that Durant and Westbrook have bad nights and that LeBron dominates the series. Going on form though, I don't see this happening and I see the Oklahoma City Thunder winning in six games. I mean how are you going to win when you are up against this?!








Peace


Photos sourced from streetball.com




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