Thursday, 25 April 2013

The NFL Draft 2013- Production vs Potential




NFL DRAFT 2013


Welcome to my quick brief of the NFL Draft which starts in a couple of hours. The lack of star players this year hides the fact that this is the most unpredictable draft ever and the most entertaining one at that. There are going to be a lot of movements and trades as teams look to get the players they want. Just because the top players in this draft are Tackles doesn't make it boring if you are a fan of football. The exciting aspect I find about the draft is that it can change the fortunes of teams very quickly, for better and for worse. The best teams use the draft over free agency to improve the team. The latest Collective Bargaining Agreement has meant First round picks are a lot cheaper and teams can take a lot more risks on game changers. However if General Managers and Coaches commit to an early pick and they flop then they can be the end of their employment very quickly. So here are some quick points before the team breakdowns:

Overated Five Players who are going to get drafted before they should:
  • QB Geno Smith
  • WR Tavon Wilson
  • OLB Barkevious Mingo
  • DE Ezekiel Ansah
  • RB Eddie Lacy
Five players who are going to fall: 
  • WR Cordarelle Patterson
  • CB Xavier Rhodes
  • OLB Jarvis Jones
  • G Chance Warmack
  • DT Shariff Floyd
Five sleepers who may creep into the first round:
  • WR Robert Woods 
  • S Matt Elam
  • OT/G Justin Pugh
  • QB EJ Manuel
  • OT/G Kyle Long
High Risers- the players who have risen up the boards recently:
  • WR Justin Hunter
  • CB DJ Hayden
  • DT Sylvester Williams
  • OT/G Justin Pugh
  • WR Tavon Austin

Arizona Cardinals

Current Picks: 7, 38, 69, 103, 140, 174, 219
Team Needs: QB, RB, OL, LB, S. 
A very good defensive side last year came to nothing as the offence spluttered and struggled to score. After releasing several veterans including QB Kevin Kolb and S Adrian Wilson the team has major needs in key locations.
Thankfully by trading for QB Carson Palmer, the need to draft a QB early is not a pressing need. New head coach Bruce Arians has a background in offence so their first pick will probably be on that side.  What is needed is upgrading the worst offensive line in the NFL which allowed a record 58 sacks last year. There lack of pass rush on the outside is also a need but if they can't protect Palmer then they will have no chance in winning games and they will be back in the bottom 10 teams of the League.
Perceived best case scenario- Tackle Lane Johnson slips to them at 7. Very unlikely as teams will move up to 6 to grab him as the Browns are looking to trade back to gain more picks in the draft.
Actual Best case scenario- They select one of the two top guards, Cooper or Warmack. Both are perhaps Top 5 players in the whole draft but guards don't usually get drafted in the top half of the draft because they are seen as unsexy picks. The current tackles on the squad, Levi Brown and Bobbie Massie are competent when healthy so it's not as big a need. If the Cardinals are more worried about filling their greatest need with great prospects rather then making a splash then they should pick guard. In the second round perhaps picking up a pass rusher or safety which may have fallen to 38. Picking a Quarterback and Running Back in the later rounds to speculate on will be the plan also.
Surprise scenario- Selecting DE Ezekiel Ansah. He is a project and extremely raw but has immense potential. It's just too high for a player who may not pan out. Then selecting a Quarterback in the second round and waiting till the later rounds to address the OL. Arians  reign as coach may not last long if this is the case.

Atlanta Falcons

Current Picks: 30, 60, 92, 127, 133, 163, 198, 236, 243, 244, 249
Team Needs: TE, OL, DE, CB. They are one of the contenders of the NFC but they have big holes in several areas especially on defence. They need a good draft to maintain the momentum from last season. The loss of two starting CB's and the starting RT is a concern. They also need to upgrade the pass rush as this seems to be an issue year in and year out.

Perceived best case scenario- One of the solid CB's are still left on the board such as DJ Hayden, Desmond Trufant or Jamar Taylor to fill in the loss of both Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson.
Actual Best case scenario- Like most teams in the back half the Falcons will look for trading back options with teams looking to climb back up for a QB. However I don't see the demand for it. Ideally if TE Tyler Eifert fell to them this would be a fantastic addition. Future Hall of Fame TE Tony Gonzalez has signed on for another year but will almost certainly retire after this season. Eifert is by far the most complete TE in this years draft class and could learn from the greatest player ever to learn the position. Would give QB Matt Ryan another weapon to work with. The CB position is deep this year so they could theoretically pick up a starter in the 2nd/3rd round.
Surprise scenario- There are rumours that General Manager Thomas Dimitroff maybe one of the few teams willing to trade up for a player. Maybe for Eifert or one of the top CB's. He did it a couple of years ago to claim WR Julio Jones and that worked out well. Due to the perceived weakness of this draft and a lot of teams wanting to move down the Falcons could get a very good deal to move up.


Baltimore Ravens

Current Picks: 32, 62, 94, 129, 130, 165, 168, 199, 200, 203, 238, 247
Team Needs: OL, WR, LB, CB, S
The reigning Superbowl champions have been decimated by key players retiring or moving on to other teams. Gone are Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Anquan Boldin. Left tackle is a huge need but there won't be a player worth drafting where they are drafting. GM Ozzie Newsome is one of the most respected GM's in the NFL. He continually seems to find great talent all throught the draft, they certainly aren't afraid to select players with question marks. OLB Terrell Suggs is the best example of that.
Perceived best case scenario- Grabbing a MLB such as Manti T'eo or Kevin Minter to shore up the middle of the offense. They could also grab one of the top safeties if there hasn't been an early run on them in the first round.
Actual Best case scenario- The Ravens are smart not too reach for players because of need so I just them picking the best player on their draft board in the WR/S/LB group. Alec Ogletree is a perfect example of a player who may drop to the Ravens because of character concerns despite being the best linebacker on the field. WR Keenen Allen is another productive college player who may drop into the Ravens lap at the end of the first round.
Surprise scenario- A surprise scenario perhaps would be reaching for a tackle like Menalik Watson and slide Michael Oher of the Blindside fame to the left side. Watson has only played one year of Division
I college football but he has incredible upside and apparently interviewed extremely well. Maybe the Ravens take a risk here for the chance of solidifying their offensive line,


Buffalo Bills

Current Picks: 8, 41, 71, 105, 143, 177
Team Needs: QB, WR, OL, LB, S
The joker of the pack the Bills are the biggest enigma in the Top 10. With a real need at QB they could be the team to select one at No 8. However they have other needs in the interior line, wide receiver and pass rush. The question is where they are willing to wait on QB's till the second round or whether they are looking to move up back in the late first round. The Bills are in a bind, all the top picks are looking to be gone by 8.
Perceived best case scenario- If the top QB prospect Geno Smith falls here then Buffalo maybe pressured into picking him. It all depends on whether new coach Doug Marrone wants his QB from Syracuse Ryan Nassib with him. Nassib would be a big reach though at 8 so value wise they may select a pass rusher such as Barkevious Ansah or Jarvis Jones.
Actual Best case scenario- After losing guard Andre Levitre to free agency the Bills should bolster the O Line with Cooper or Warmack, that would be te best value and it's a safe move. Unfortunately GM Buddy Nix has shown in the past to make questionable picks so I don't have faith in this happening.
Surprise scenario- The Bills may decide that they need to get more explosive on the offensive side and select the most electrifying WR prospect in Tavon Austin. I think this would be huge reach, he is tiny and may not be able to stand up to the hits from NFL players in the long run.

Carolina Panthers

Current Picks: 14, 44, 108, 148, 182
Team Needs: OL, WR, DT, CB, S
The Panthers have been slated for defensive tackle in mock drafts for months now, so naturally it probably won't happen. The secondary needs help and they are in need of a right tackle after releasing Jeff Otah last year. 
Perceived best case scenario-  Getting one of the DTs who may slip in the draft due to pressures on other areas. Sheldon Richardson and Star Lotulelei would be great options or maybe Shariff Floyd if he really tumbled. 
Actual Best case scenario- One of the few teams where the perceived and the actual scenarios are the same. A DT is essential and there is good value at this stage of the draft. 
Surprise scenario- Depending on the run of CB's, the Panthers could surprise us by selecting a CB like Xavier Rhodes or DJ Hayden. They may in fact think they can get a solid DT at pick No.44.

Chicago Bears

Current Picks: 20, 50, 117, 153, 188
Team Needs: WR, OL, LB, CB
For years now the Bears neglected the Offensive Line and it ultimately produced a GM and head coaching position. QB JAy Cutler has been a lamb to the slaughter behind this porous line so it came as a breath of fresh air they tried to rectify it in free agency. Unfortunately the signings of Jermon Bushrod, Matt Slauson and Eben Britton aren't seen by many as solving the problem. The interior line is still week. The release of legendary Bears MLB Brian Urlacher has left a huge hole in the centre of the defence. WR is perceived as being a need but they just drafted Alshon Jeffrey last year who shows promise.
Perceived best case scenario- Neither Cooper and Warmack will drop this far so the Bears will probably focus on the LB position. They will have the pick of the bunch so it depends on their taste. The hype of Manti T'eo could be it or the solid allround play of Kansas State Arthur Brown could be another. Georgia's Alec Ogletree is seen as the most explosive and talented but character concerns could dissuade the Bears from picking him.
Actual Best case scenario- In my opinion if TE Tyler Eifert is still on the board here the Bears should sprint for the podium. Not only is he by far the best TE prospect in the draft but he fills in two needs for the Bears. He has excellent hands so he creates mismatches against defences but he is also a solid blocker which the Bears also need. Many people feel that because the Martellus Bennett was signed from the Giants this offseason that the Bears are sorted in the position. He is a fantastic blocking TE but his lack of consistency catching the ball leaves sufficient question marks for Eifert to selected. The MLB position is one of the easiest to draft and there will be options in the later rounds fir the Bears if they took this route.
Surprise scenario- A WR here would be a huge surprise and reach in the first round but they would have a few options to choose. OT/G Justin Pugh from Syracuse could launch himself into the first round. Teams like his versatility as he can play both tackle and guard, something the Bears need to get depth in.

Cincinnati Bengals

Current Picks: 21, 37, 53, 84, 118, 156, 190, 197, 240, 251
Team Needs: RB, OL, DE, LB, S
Perceived best case scenario- People are pencilling in RB Eddy Lacy from Alabama as the 20th pick. If they do that though I am automatically labelling the Bengals losers of the 1st round. This class of RB's is very weak and Lacy would be a reach when you could get similar talent in the 3rd round. Alec Ogletree is also a popular pick as head coach Marvin Lewis is not afraid to take risks on players with character concerns. 
Actual Best case scenario- There is depth in both RB and LB positions so if the Bengals are smart they will wait for the 2nd round where they have two picks to address those needs. I think Lacy could still be there at 37. Right Tackle is still a concern though and DJ Fluker would be a great addition if he is still available at 21. Very similar to AAndre Smith in terms of power and size but without the character issues and for the fraction of the price. Would be a great pickup and would improve the run game. 
Surprise scenario- The Bengals selected two WR's last year in the middle rounds but they could still do with an upgrade next to Pro Bowler AJ Green. Cordarelle Patterson is extremely raw but he ha high upside and the Bengals aren't afraid in investing in those kinds of players. 

Cleveland Browns

Current Picks: 6, 68, 104, 139, 164, 175, 227
Team Needs: QB, WR, LB, CB
Finding another edge rusher for their new 3-4 will be high on Cleveland’s list, but receiver and cornerback should take center stage. A second elite corner to pair with Joe Haden would elevate Cleveland’s secondary. 
Perceived best case scenario- The Browns have made it no secret that they are looking to trade down for extra picks after giving up their second rounder in the supplemental draft last year for WR Josh Gordon. They are hoping Lane Johnson is till there by pick No. 6 which would draw interest. If Dion Jordan is there still they will have a long look at him as he could become a fantastic pass rusher. Of course the No.1 CB prospect Dee Milliner will highly likely be there and could make a great tandem with Pro Bowler Joe Haden on the other side. If they can trade down a couple of spots there is still a high chance they can get one of these players and have extra picks in the future. 
Actual Best case scenario- It's looking likely that Lane Johnson won't get past Detroit one pick ahead of them and Jordan could be gone as well so Millener would make sense here. People are saying Ezekiel Ansah but I think that would be a reach for a player who is extremely raw to be selected in the top 6.
Surprise scenario- Current Browns QB Brandon Weeden had a horrific rookie season last year and with the change of management and ownership they may decide that choosing Geno Smith would be the best way to start a regime change. Many may not see this as a surprise but I just can't see Offensive Coordinator and former Chargers head coach Norv Turner thinking he can't mold Weeden into a competent QB yet. Smith would be a reach in the top 10 and may even drop into the 20's because of the question marks on him. A short sided decision if they select him here.


Dallas Cowboys

Current Picks: 18, 47, 80, 114, 151, 185
Team Needs: RB, OL, DE, S
The Cowboys owner and GM Jerry Jones constantly makes headlines for the decisions he makes, unfortunately they are usually bad. So bad that the team have only won one playoff game since 1996, easily becoming the most overrated NFL team. Jones personnel decision making has been questionable for years now and he faces a tough time addressing the many holes he has in his team.
Perceived best case scenario- If either of the two elite guards or safety Kenny Vaccaro are there they will be pretty ecstatic.
Actual Best case scenario- Unfortunately that will probably not occur and their is a distinct possibility that Jones will have to trade up to get them. It would be too early to grab a RB so they are really in a hard place with very little leverage. DJ Fluker could be an option if they wanted current RT Doug Free to move inside to the guard position but it's not a sexy pick and Jones loves a sexy pick.
Surprise scenario- If Vaccaro is gone then Jones might pull the trigger on another safety this early and beat the rush for them. Eric Reid from LSU would be good addition but it might be a little too soon for him in terms of value. A pass rusher like injured Tank Carradine would be a classic shock move by Jones. The thing is nothing is a surprise with the Cowboys any more.

Denver Broncos

Current Picks: 28, 58, 90, 125, 161, 234
Team Needs: RB, DT, DE, LB
The Broncos had one of the best free agencies this off season so they have very few weaknesses. The defensive side in the front seven is due for a makeover. 
Perceived best case scenario- After losing OLB Elvis Dumervil in a bizarre fax machine incident the team is now in need of a pass rusher. Florida State team mates Bjoern Werner and Tank Carradine are slated by many to be available at this time. 
Actual Best case scenario- Werner's drive and motor maybe a great pickup but if DT Sylvester Williams from North Carolina is still there I think need matches the value. 
Surprise scenario- Head coach John Fox loves his RB's and he's not happy with what he has on the roster at the moment. He could choose to select Eddy Lacy at this early stage to beat a rush for the RB. A CB as well could be an option despite signing Dominique Rodgers Cromartie to a one year deal. Champ Bailey is getting slower and slower every year and a replacement needs to be groomed.

Detroit Lions

Current Picks: 5, 36, 65, 132, 137, 171, 211, 245
Team Needs: OL, WR, DE, LB, CB
Detroit is in prime position to deal with either its void at OT or CB at No. 5 overall. It has a other major positions of need such as DE and WR but they can't afford to miss on there first selection. Losing both your starting tackles to free agency and retirement cannot be avoided. Even though CB depth is pitiful in Detroit they would rather focus on the pass rush on the defensive side of the ball in the early rounds.
Perceived and actual best case scenario- One of the tackles is left for them to simply pick. Fisher, Joeckal or Johnson can start immediately and contribute. It's really that simple. If the rush for them is early then they may have to trade up to get one, they cannot afford missing one of these tackles.
Surprise scenario- If they pass on one of the tackles it's only going to be for a pass rusher like Dion Jordan or Ezekeil Ansah, Ansah would be a immense reach in my opinion and you might as well pack your bags Jim Schwartz because you'll be gone by seasons end.

Green Bay Packers

Current Picks: 26, 55, 88, 122, 159, 167, 193, 232
Team Needs: RB, OL, DE, CB, LB
Every year they need a running back and every year they neglect to draft a high prospect at that position. It;s not the year to be drafting one high and Green Bay consistently are one of the best drafters in the NFL. Big gaps in the defence need to be sorted and the offensive line needs an infusion of talent. One of the hardest teams to figure where they will go in the 1st round.
Perceived best case scenario- A pass rusher falls to them or Tyler Eifert. They just don't seem to fit with the talent available at this situation.
Actual Best case scenario- They take the best player available and nobody complains.
Surprise scenario- They take a chance on Menalik Watson form Britain. Raw but a high upside, could shore up the offensive line and protect QB Aaron Rodgers for years to come. The Packers love picking WR's but I think they should address that in the later rounds.

Houston Texans

Current Picks: 27, 57, 89, 95, 124, 160, 195, 201, 233
Team Needs: WR, OL, NT, LB, CB
I've been saying it for years now but they need to get another WR to complement Andre Johnson. The lack of dynamic weapons for Matt Schaub is starting to show and if they don't grab one in the first round this year I think head coach Gary Kubiak should be on the chopping block. 
Perceived best case scenario- WR's like Justin Hunter or Robert Woods should be around for the taking at this position.
Actual Best case scenario- Again Tyler Eifert would be a name that fits a need. Owen Daniels is not getting younger and it would improve the passing game.
Surprise scenario- I have a suspicion that WR Cordarelle Patterson may slip to this position as is inability to run routes and maturity concerns may drop him out of the first round altogether. With Andre Johnson taking him under his wings he could help turn Patteroson into an eventual replacement for him. A high risk/ high reward pick.

Indianapolis Colts

Current Picks: 24, 86, 121, 192, 230, 254
Team Needs: RB, LB, DT, CB
After focusing almost entirely on the offensive side in last years draft this year the Colts need to bolster up the defensive side. The goal for Round 1 should be to bolster the front seven, either with an edge rusher or versatile lineman.
Perceived best case scenario- Grabbing a DT or a CB is important. Players such as DT's Datone Jones and Sylvester Williams maybe around there. 
Actual Best case scenario- The Colts may look to trade out of the first round for extra picks. There is plenty of CB depth so they should be able to pick up a decent one in the second round. Both Jones and Sylvester Williams would provide some pass rushing ability from the interior.
Surprise scenario- A linebacker such as Alec Ogletree could be an option as he provides pass rushing ability from the OLB.


Jacksonville Jaguars
Current Picks: 2, 33, 64, 98, 135, 169, 208
Team Needs: QB, OL, DE, CB, S
It should only come down to two players here, the tackle that Kansas didn't take or Dion Jordan. If the new Jags management would know what's best for their long term job security they will keep it simple and not reach for QB Geno Smith. This team is one of the least talented rosters out there and is going to need a slow rebuild. 
Perceived best case scenario- OLB Dion Jordan would fill a specific position that new head coach Gus Bradley wants, a linebacker stout against the run and a terror against the run. This team only recorded 20 sacks as a team the entire season last year the worst in the league, they need help. DT Shariff Floyd wouldn't be a surprise but I can't see the value in drafting him here when there are great left tackle prospects on the board still.
Actual Best case scenario- And yet I would take EricFisher/Luke Joeckal here. They lost starting tackle Eben Britton to free agency and it's not often you get the opportunity to draft a franchise left tackle. Give QB Blaine Gabbert a chance to score points. That's the only way you can win games in the NFL now, with the offence.
Surprise scenario- If they select QB Geno Smith here I'm automatically making the Jaguars the biggest losers of the draft. He maybe the best QB of the draft but it all amounts to nothing if you can't defend the guy. Current QB Blaine Gabbert has been given an unfair time- A lockout shortened rookie offseason, constant coaching changes and little receiving options to work. He needs to be given a chance to at least to show that the struggles offensively were not exclusively down to him. It's not like the Jags are only one player away from becoming relevant. Chances are they will have an early pick next year where the QB class is reported to be a lot stronger.


Kansas City Chiefs

Current Picks: 1, 63, 96, 99, 134, 170, 204, 207
Team Needs: OL, DE, LB, S
As much as the Chiefs are trying to garner interest in getting a team to trade up to the No.1 pick it's just not going to happen. The only easy pick of the entire draft the Chiefs election should be between Tackles Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckal. Other needs can be addressed in the later rounds.


Miami Dolphins

Current Picks: 12, 42, 54, 77, 82, 111, 146, 166, 217, 224, 205
Team Needs: OL, CB, RB
With the loss of starting LT Jake Long to the Rams the Dolphins are in a difficult position. They will almost certainly have to trade up to acquire one of the three elite tackle prospects. If not then a CB seems to be the logical answer.
Perceived best case scenario- Trading up to get the LT they need.
Actual Best case scenario- If the elite tackles are gone then perhaps one of the interior lineman or RT DJ Fluker who could move into guard if need be. If Dee Milliner slips he could be picked here.
Surprise scenario- Some have S Kenny Vaccaro going here which surprises me but he is a solid player and would certainly contribute immediately.

Minnesota Vikings

Current Picks: 23, 25, 52, 83, 102, 120, 155, 189, 213, 214, 229
Team Needs: WR, DT, LB, CB
Thanks to trading their best wide receiver, Percy Harvin, to the Seahawks the Vikings have two first round picks in the 20's. They have a lot of needs but should be able to solve a couple in the 1st round.
Perceived best case scenario- Grabbing a DL and a WR with picks 23 and 25 seems to be the most popular belief. There will be plenty of  WR options as well as linebacker options but LB's tend to slide. Many mock drafts have Manti T'eo going to the Vikings but I just don't see it. 
Actual Best case scenario- If DT Sylvester Williams is still there at No.23 I think the Vikings would love that situation. I also think that they can wait on receiver till the second round and address the CB situation. There will be plenty of options still at this stage and this would help fill the gap that Antoine Winfield left behind when he also signed with the Seahawks.
Surprise scenario-  Manti T'eo seems like a good fit but Arthur Brown or Kevin Minter may get selected by the Vikings instead of him. Both show more speed and athleticism and the ability to shed blocks.

New England Patriots

Current Picks: 29, 59, 91, 226, 235
Team Needs: WR, DE, DT, CB
One of the most frustrating teams to project, head coach and GM Bill Belichick is constantly picking unexpected players or in positions where their seems to be no immediate need. Maybe that is why he manages to keep this team competing for the Super Bowl for over a decade now. WR and CB seem to constantly be the two positions that the Patriots struggle to get right in the draft. However depth at DT and another DE are also areas of needs. The tough thing for the Patriots this year is the lack of picks, 5 in all which makes Belichick less able to wheel and deal picks like he loves to do.
Perceived best case scenario- If a CB such as DJ Hayden, Desmond Trufant or Jamar Taylor are available people believe the Patriots have to take them. If they can trade back to gain extra picks they will do that.
Actual Best case scenario- However the CB position is actually not a major area of need  in the 1st roundin my opinion. They have Aquib Tali and Alonzo Dennard who played exceptionally well down the stretch but unfortunately Talib got injured in the AFC championship game. Ras I Dowling, a high draft pick two years ago is still around he just needs to stay healthy. The main concern on the defensive side is still the lack of a pass rush. If they could someone like DT Sylvester Williams that would be a steal. If not then WR's such as Robert Woods, Justin Hunter and De Andre Hopkins maybe good options.
Surprise scenario- Belichick loves promising raw players and DL Margus Hunt fits the bill. A huge man originally from Estonia he is exactly the potential saturated player that the Patriots have taken in the past, just not in the first round.

New Orleans Saints

Current Picks: 15, 75, 109, 144, 183
Team Needs: OL, WR, LB, CB, S
This teams in a mess in so many positions on the defence and so few draft picks to rectify it. Changing from a 4-3 to a 3-4 scheme they are in obvious need of OLB but a bigger concern is the fact they lost their LT Bushrod in free agency. It's going to be a quiet draft for the Saints.
Perceived best case scenario- Barkevious Mingo or Jarvis Jones falls to them giving them the pass rush they need.
Actual Best case scenario- Mingo maybe gone but Jones should be their which is the best you could hope for where they are picking. He had the best production out of all the OLB prospects in this years draft.
Surprise scenario- Maybe a CB here or S Kenny Vaccaro, whoever they have drafted higher.


New York Giants

Current Picks: 19, 49, 81, 116, 152, 187, 225, 253
Team Needs: OL, LB, CB
The Giants have always had a 'pick the best talent at DE or WR' mentality for a while now. This year probably won't be the same but it should. Their linebacking core is terrible and the OL could do with upgrades on all positions. 
Perceived best case scenario- Ezekiel Ansah falls to them and they have a repeat of Jason Pierre- Paul from a couple of years ago.
Actual Best case scenario- Selecting LB Alec Ogletree would get the team a Top 10 talent that serves a major need. It makes to much sense. TE Tyler Eifert could also be a great pickup since they lost Martellus Bennett to free agency this offseason,
Surprise scenario- DJ Fluker would be a surprise because it would be the first time in a long time that they spent a high pick on OL.

New York Jets

Current Picks: 9, 13, 39, 72, 106, 141, 178, 215
Team Needs: QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, LB, CB
The most dysfunctional team in the entire NFL this team may have the greatest needs in the most positions, they are in total rebuild mode at the moment. The trade of their best player Darrell Revis to the Bucs for the 13th pick is the beginning of the rebuilding process. The problem is they still have Rex Ryan who should have been fired after last years debacle of a season. Now he knows he has to win now to survive. That's the worst position a franchise can be in- a terrible team where a coach makes desperate moves to keep his job. I really fear Ryan's going to reach for players and damage the team further.
Perceived best case scenario- There are so many options but if they can get another OLB like Barkevious Mingo, Jarvis Jones and one of the CB's to replace Revis then it could be seen as a success.
Actual Best case scenario- The problem is that the defence is not the problem. The offence is a mess right now in every position group. They should grab one of the elite guards at No.9 and then a pass rusher or CB at No.13. 
Surprise scenario- Tavon Austin at No.9 would provide a wow factor for the franchise but there are far more pressing needs for the team.

Oakland Raiders

Current Picks: 3, 66, 100, 172, 176, 205, 209
Team Needs: QB, TE, WR, OL, DT, LB, CB
The Raiders and the Jets are in the worst situation in the NFL, lack of talent plus cap restrictions because of disastrous contracts. The current management group are still cleaning up the late owner Al Davis's crazy tyrannical rule. This team is going to be one of the worst teams next year so they need to just pick the best player available.
Perceived best case scenario- Grabbing DT Shariff Floyd or DT Star Lotulelei would be the best options.
Actual Best case scenario- If they can trade back for someone who wants one of the tackles available then they could get extra picks and still get an elite DT position.

Philadelphia Eagles

Current Picks: 4, 35, 67, 101, 136, 210, 212, 218, 239
Team Needs: QB, OL, NT, DE, LB
The most intriguing team in the Top 5, what they do will dictate where the rest of the draft goes. They could draft a OLB, a tackle or Geno Smith. Chip Kelly's unique game plan means he may look for things in prospects which the rest of the NFL won't.
Perceived best case scenario- Lane Johnson tackle- fills a massive need as both their current tackles are returning from injuries. He is also the most athletic of the three top tackles whuch suits Kelly's fast paced offence perfectly.
Actual Best case scenario- Lane Johnson, simple as that.
Surprise scenario- Geno Smith wouldn't be too much of a surprise, nor Dion Jordan who was Kelly's star player at Oregon. EJ Manuel??

Pittsburgh Steelers

Current Picks: 17, 48, 79, 115, 150, 186, 206, 223
Team Needs: RB, TE, WR, OL, NT, LB, S
Lots of holes are emerging in this ageing team. They are trending on the way down.
Perceived best case scenario- Jarvis Jones or Kenny Vaccaro or Tyler Eifert.
Actual Best case scenario- They will be fortunate if any of these players slip to them, otherwise a CB will be a solid backup plan.
Surprise scenario- A WR like Cordarelle Patterson could be intriguing for a team lacking a big receiver with top end speed.

San Diego Chargers

Current Picks: 11, 45, 76, 110, 145, 179, 221,
Team Needs: WR, OL, NT, LB, CB
San Diego are in a pretty bad situation, they are in desperate need of OL help but all three top tackles and the two top guards will probably be gone. Does that mean they reach for DJ Fluker or do they go with CB or do they trade up and grab one of the elite OL's. An intriguing team.


San Francisco 49ers

Current Picks: 31, 34, 61, 74, 93, 128, 131, 157, 173, 180, 237, 246, 252
Team Needs: TE, DE, LB, S
They have the most selections in the entire draft which gives them a lot of flexibility to move up to grab players they covet. Safety is the biggest need for them as well as TE so I can see them going for a safety like Eric Reid. The strong get stronger. 

Seattle Seahawks

Current Picks: 56, 87, 123, 138, 158, 194, 220, 231, 241, 242
Team Needs: QB, OL, DT, LB
It's going to be a quiet first day for the Seahawks but that's ok because they won free agency. Acquiring Percy Harvin, Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett for reasonable deals makes this a dangerous team.

St. Louis Rams

Current Picks: 16, 22, 46, 78, 113, 149, 184, 222
Team Needs: RB, WR, OL, LB, CB, S
The Rams are in a position of power having two first round picks and they are in position to upgrade multiple spots. Safety and Offensive Line would be the two best spots for the Rams but linebacker and wide receiver could also be areas where they target. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Current Picks: 43, 73, 112, 126, 147, 181, 196
Team Needs: TE, DT, CB
Another team who won't participate too much in the first round due by trading for CB Darrelle Revis this week. The have done a great job fixing their biggest problem in FA which was their secondary. A pass catching TE would be good and extra pass rushers would make  the draft a successful one.

Tennessee Titans

Current Picks: 10, 40, 70, 97, 107, 142, 202, 216, 248
Team Needs: TE, OL, DE, DT, CB
Bringing in free agent Andy Levitre might leave the Titans a guard away from having an elite offensive line. If they can get Cooper or Warmack that would be a great addition which would open up holes for CJ2K to dominate like he did a couple of year ago. CB could be another option for a team with little flair and excitement.

Washington Redskins

Current Picks: 51, 85, 119, 154, 162, 191, 228
Team Needs: WR, OL, DE, LB, S
No pick in the top 50 means the Redskins can really only wait out the first day and hope players drop to them. 

Sunday, 3 February 2013

Super Bowl XLVII Preview- San Francisco 49ers vs Baltimore Ravens



The Super Bowl is upon us! The biggest USA sporting spectacle is becoming more and more popular overseas as the years go by. Back in my native New Zealand I have seen the increase of Super Bowl parties throughout the country. In fact in many circles it is becoming a annual fixture like the Wellington 7's. It's not uncommon for people to take the Monday afternoon off to watch the game. So if your new to this Super Bowl thing or even American Football in general then I have the preview for you.

The Harbowl they are calling it this year as it is the first time two brothers are coaching against in the Super Bowl. The match will be one of the most physical in recent memory as both teams have physically mauled there way into the finale of the NFL season.

The Teams

San Francisco 49ers:

History: Established in 1946 the 49ers are one of the most popular teams in the NFL. They have been to the Super Bowl five previous times and have won all of those games, The 49ers remain the only team in NFL history to appear in more than one Super Bowl without ever losing. All of the victories came in the 80's and 90's where Hall of Famer's like Joe Montana, Steve Young and Jerry Rice made the 49ers one of the premier teams the game has ever seen. The 49ers have had a rough spell of results since those times, before Jim Harbaugh became head coach last year the team hadn't had a winning season since 2002.

Season so far: After narrowly losing in the NFC Championship game to eventual Super Bowl champions, the NY Giants last year the expectations were high for this team coming into the season. They have largely met those expectations apart from some struggles vs their division rivals the Seahawks and Rams. The biggest controversy was Jim Harbaughs decision to change quarterbacks halfway through the season. Seven year veteran Alex Smith was unceremoniously dropped for second year player Colin Kaepernick which led many to question Harbaughs judgement. The truth of the matter is that Smith was only going to take the team so far  and Harbaugh saw the potential of Kaepernick. The results in the second half of the season and in the playoffs have confirmed his decision as defences have not been able to stop Kaepernick who has a rare ability to be dangerous with ball in hand or throwing it accurately.

 Team strengths: The running game- the 4th best in the regular season led by running back Frank Gore. Kaepernicks ability to run makes it hard to focus on the running backs. Their defensive front 7- Maybe the best in the league, strong, quick and physical they can stop the run and rush the quarterback. DE Aldon Smith recorded 19.5 sacks this year- second best in the NFL.

Team weaknesses: Kaepernick's inexperience, he's only played half a season, will he be able to handle the added pressure of the Super Bowl? The secondaries inability to prevent big passing plays in the playoffs. Kicker David Akers has struggled mightily at field goals this year, he is converting only 69% of them, down from 85% the previous year. If the game is close then this could become significant.

Players who the media/commentators will talk about the most: 

Quarterback Colin Kaepernick and his dual-threat ability. Linebacker Aldon Smith's sack potential. Middle linebacker Patrick Willis physical play. Defensive lineman Justin Smith being the key to the 49ers defence. Running back Frank Gore's renaissance year.

The players you should take notice of: 

Justin Smith is the key to this teams defence, and I believe of the whole game. He is that disruptive that he creates the hole for Aldon Smith to get sacks. Justin Smith has been recovering from a triceps injury which has limited his effectiveness and has resulted in Aldon Smith not recording a single sack during the playoffs.  If Justin Smith is not effective then this team will be vulnerable to Flacco's big arm. Linebacker Navorro Bowman gets less attention then team mate Willis but he had arguably a better season then him, incredibly agile and adept at making a big play. Both him and Willis will be a handful for the Baltimore offence. Finally this one may surprise you but punter Andy Lee maybe very significant in the game. Punters in American Football get an unfair rap for being insignificant. They can play an important part in containing the opposition deep in their own half. If a team is consistently starting within their own 10 yard line it becomes very difficult to drive down the entire field and score. Lee has the best punting average in the NFL and was 3rd in the amount of punts placed within the opposition 20. 

Baltimore Ravens:

History: One of the youngest teams in the NFL the Ravens organisation used to be the Cleveland Browns before owner Art Modell controversially moved them to Baltimore in 1996. With their second selection ever in the NFL draft they selected Ray Lewis who continues to be the heart and soul of the team. In 2000 the Ravens won the only Super Bowl they have been to with one of the greatest defensive teams in NFL history. 

Season so far: The Ravens season has been a roller coaster event with the team struggling through key injuries and inept coaching. Defensively the team has been decimated by injuries. Their best pass rusher and 5-time Pro Bowler Terrell Suggs has missed half the season due to an Achilles injury. Their best cornerback blew out his ACL in the same game that Ray Lewis tore his triceps half way through the season. Usually that sort of injury would mean at least one year to recover but the 37 year old Lewis has defied logic by being back and playing with in 3 months (more on this later). Offensively the team has been frustratingly inconsistent under offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. Cameron ran one of the most Vanilla offences in the league and did not get along with Ravens starting quarterback Joe Flacco which led to tension within the team. Eventually John Harbaugh fired Cameron late in the season and allowed Flacco more flexibility to call plays. The result has seen them upset both the Broncos and the Patriots away from home with Flacco being outstanding- throwing eight touchdowns for zero interceptions.

Team Strengths: The offensive line- it maybe the best in the NFL thanks to late season change at the tackle position. It has allowed Flacco to stand in the pocket and throw the deep ball without pressure, he is perhaps the best in the league when it comes to throwing long. Wide receivers Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones give the Ravens two big, fast threats on the outside which defences have to take seriously. Their return game in the kicking game has been the best in the NFL this season. Their ability to score at anytime is their major strength. Running Back Ray Rice is the best back in the game but is criminally underused by the Ravens. Against the stout 49ers running defence this will limit Rice's contribution to pass protecting and being a receiver out of the backfield.

Team Weaknesses: Their cornerbacks can be beaten on the outside. They can struggle to defend the run, with Ray Lewis being 37 and recovering from torn triceps he is not the same player he once was. 


Players who the media/commentators will talk about the most: 

Ray Lewis- is the Super Bowl this year. The inspirational leader of the Ravens has been with the team for its entire existence. Media sites and publications the week leading up to the game have been filled with the fact that there is evidence Lewis has used banned substances in deer antler spray to recover from his torn triceps injury. And then there was the last time he went to the Super Bowl..... Let's just say I believe he is on the scale of Lance Armstrong of inspirational athletes who shouldn't be so celebrated. Quarterback Joe Flacco's case for being classed as one of the elite at his position will be a big talking point during the game. 

The players you should take notice of: 

Offensive tackles- Bryant McKinnie and Michael Oher. The resurgence of McKinnie in the playoffs maybe the single biggest reason that the Ravens have made it to the Super Bowl. A former pro bowler McKinnie is immensely gifted but according to many sources, one of the laziest. He played sparingly during the regular season which forced Michael Oher of "The Blinside" fame to move to left tackle where he struggled. Oher is better suited at right tackle so that fact that McKinnie has decided to play has meant that the offensive line is playing incredibly strong at the moment. Wide receiver Torrey Smith is the deep threat and most dangerous receiver for the Ravens but veteran Anquan Boldin could be the most important. He is one of the toughest receivers in the game. Years ago he broke his face in game and returned the next week with a protective mask on. With Smith being doubled team in coverage there will be space for Flacco to throw to Boldin. Defensively Ray Lewis gains the most attention but he is not their best player by a long shot. Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs are the keys to disrupting the 49ers running game and they both need to have big games for the Ravens to win.


The Game-All you need to know.

Location- The Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana. Capacity: Over 76,000. This will be the 10th Super Bowl in the Super Dome, tied for the most ever. 

Fun fact you can impress the ladies/men with: The average price of a ticket to this Super Bowl is $2978 US! This is actually down on the previous two years.


Key Matchups

Ravens O Line vs 49ers D Line- For the Ravens to have any chance of winning they need to be able to protect Flacco long enough for him to use the cannon he has as an arm. If Mckinnie can defend against Aldon Smith one on one that means the Ravens can double team Justin Smith who is very disruptive.

Torrey Smith vs secondary- You are going to see Smith get double teamed in  lot of circumstances because of his ability to get behind defences for the long throw. The Ravens will try and use play action pass to get the defence thinking its a run play and try and get Smith wide open. Once he is behind a defence he is simply too fast to be stopped.

Kaepernick vs himself- At this point there is not a team in the NFL right now that can stop Kaepernick from moving the ball down the field. He is to accurate a passer if you leave him time in the pocket. If you blitz him though he his incredibly quick for his size and can break tackles to get first downs and much more running the football. The Ravens can only hope that the moment will get to him and that the pressure forces him to make mental errors which turn into turnover opportunities. Otherwise the Ravens are going to find it a nigh impossible task to prevent him from moving the ball.

Jim Harbaugh vs John Harbaugh- Despite being brothers they have different temperaments and ways of coaching their teams. Jim is the more impassioned one and comes across as petulant and childish when things aren't going is way. He is also more aggressive in his offensive playcalling which could work out. Johns offences have been traditionally less creative but defensively he really minimises the oppositions strengths. Special teams is his speciality which makes the Ravens very dangerous in the return game. Both brothers will know each others tendencies inside out so this will be a fascinating match strategy wise.

Prediction- 
To be honest this has been the toughest Super Bowl matchup to predict in a long time. On  paper the 49ers look like overwhelming favourites who match up really well against the Ravens. Their best strength-running the football is the Ravens weakness on defence. In Kaepernick they have one of the most dynamic and explosive quarterbacks in the NFL and at the same time he doesn't turnover the ball. Frank Gore will be used to wear down the Ravens defence which will set up play action where they can throw to receivers like Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis. The Ravens will struggle to run the ball against the formidable front seven of the 49ers so it comes down to whether Flacco can maintain this hot streak that he has been on in the playoffs. If the O-line can't hold up against the Smiths then this game won't be close. 

However, funny things tend to happen in Super Bowls. Favourites suddenly get clammy and uptight and don't play like they usually do. The Ravens do have the talismanic Ray Lewis who has carried this team this far into despite the odds and his injury. The Ravens were dead and buried coming into the playoffs and yet they are the classic case of a team building momentum at the right time and place. For me it comes down to whether Kaepernick can cope with the big stage. If he can I am predicting the 49ers win. If he doesn't come out confident though the Ravens have the belief and pure grit to win this. It's going to be a tightly fought match that is for sure.

Final scoreline: San Francisco 27, Baltimore 23.

Hope you enjoy the game where ever you are in the world!

Peace