Thursday, 18 September 2014

NFL Power Rankings Week 2-The new reality

Two games means two different sets of data points we can examine to assess all 32 NFL teams. It's obviously been a crazy two weeks on and off the field (mostly off) and there has been no shortage of upsets. Hyped up teams like the Saints and Colts are 0-2 while teams like the Bills and Panthers are a surprising 2-0. The power rankings are not necessarily where I feel they will ultimately end up but more how they are trending right now. Enjoy.


32. Oakland Raiders:0-2
Trending- Steady, at the bottom of a large crevice they fell into.

It's only a matter of time till Dennis Allen gets his marching orders. This team has one of the worst rosters over the past 5 years. They could be facing a 0-16 season. GM Reggie McKenzie should go as well, teams which pin their starting QB hopes on Matt Flynn and Matt Schaub aren't cut out to manage an NFL team.
Upcoming schedule- @Patriots, vs Miami, BYE- Dolphins could be the best chance to sneak a win this year.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars: 0-2
Trending- Plummeting down the same crevice that the Raiders are in because one of the offensive lineman cut the rope.

Since the Jaguars were up 17-0 in the first half against the Eagles in Week 1 they have conceded 76 points and scored 10. They allowed ten sacks against Washington D.C. Ten!! They only got 8 first downs the whole game! The Offensive Line is officially the worst  in the NFL and Henne is providing nothing at QB. The question is whether you throw Blake Bortles in to be slaughtered and irreparably damaged like Blaine Gabbert in 2011 or do you let Henne take it and take the losses? A tough call but Jags fans deserve better.This defense is supposed to be much better than this and they have no excuses for allowing so many points.

Upcoming schedule- vs Colts, @ Chargers, vs Steelers. Not the worst schedule in terms of the opposition pass rush but they will be lucky to contend in any of these games let alone win.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0-2 
Trending- Skydiving into crevice with no parachute, there is no stopping them.

One of the trendy picks to do well this year, no other teams stock has plummeted in such a short space of time. Losing your first two games at home to backup QB's is going to do that. Lovie Smith's contract must have a clause that he doesn't field a competent O Line ever. Their major FA acquisitions on defense haven't made any impacts outside of Clinton McDonald and Josh McCown looks like the pre-Marc Trestman McCown we all know and distrust. The loss of their best DT Gerald McCoy to a broken hand only confirms that this team is in for a long and painful year.

Upcoming schedule- @Falcons, @Steelers, @Saints. Matt Ryan, Ben Roethelisberger, Drew Brees + no pass rush= three losses.

29. New York Giants:0-2 
Trending- Flat lining since their Super Bowl victory three years ago.

The Giants have been under the radar bad for years now. Consistently poor starters under Tom Coughlin, the Giants are in need of a complete overhaul which should have begun this offseason with the firing of Coughlin and GM Jerry Reese. Reese has done a shocking job retooling this roster and flat out ignoring the LB and TE positional groups. With the offense looking so bad and devoid of receiving options for Eli Manning to have a remote chance of succeeding, this side is looking at back to back lost seasons. They may win some games late this year but they might as well suck and grab a higher pick in the draft for the rebuild to start a fresh.

Upcoming schedule- vs Texans, @Washington D.C, vs Falcons- all those teams have weaknesses but the Giants will struggle to capitalise on them with this offense and QB.

28. Kansas City Chiefs: 0-2

Trending- Somehow made a Formula 1 podium in a Ford V8 last year. This year they decided to race in the same Ford V8 with only three wheels and a one armed driver (Alex Smith). Translation- Not well.

The Chiefs were undoubtedly going to have a step back from a ridiculous 12 wins last year but they could have at least tried to compete this year.They had one of the worst offseasons this year, losing the majority of their starting O Line. They inexcusably didn't add any significant help at WR despite it being poor group last year. They cut CB Brandon Flowers leaving the secondary weak and then they tied up cap space to an average Alex Smith who needs help around him to succeed. Genius. This team was relying on their defensive front 7 to win them games until the loss of pro bowler LB Derrick Johnson for the season destroyed that hope in the first game. This team doesn't have the firepower to score in any shootout and the defense is average at best now. 5-7 wins is looking most likely.
Upcoming schedule: @Dolphins, vs Patriots, @49ers. One win at the most here.

27. St Louis Rams: 1-1

Trending- Your standard Jeff Fisher mediocre season so steady.

The Rams are the most frustrating franchise to observe. They definitely won the RGIII trade in my eyes, they have added a lot of talent yet the coaching staff can't seem to get the best of the players or put them in positions to thrive. Jeff Fisher is perhaps the most overrated head coach in the NFL. For all his longevity he has a plainly ordinary 157-138 Win-Loss regular season record. He is the epitome of average. To make matters worse his coordinators maybe the worst fits for this team. Brian Schottenheimer doesn't deserve to be on any NFL team as a offensive coordinator with his vanilla,predictable playcalling. Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams blitz heavy schemes aren't needed by a team with perhaps the best defensive line in the NFL. I would love to see this team run by a Chip Kelly/Mike McCoy visionary who can turn an average roster into a playoff contender. Alas the Rams choose Fisher and his antiquated ways.

Upcoming schedule- vs Cowboys, BYE, @ Eagles- They could upset the Cowboys but I wouldn't count on it.



26. Washington D.C: 1-1

Trending- In the eye of the hurricane-the calm before the drop

The domination of the Jaguars hides the fact for at least one week that this team is not very good.Kirk Cousins looked capable as Robert 'Glass" Griffen III injured himself again but he is not the long term solution. We have seen him look good for a game or two before spectacular collapses. The defense is really bad and will get exposed by the Eagles this week and we will go back to thinking this team is a bottom third team.
Upcoming schedule- @ Eagles, Giants, Seahawks.

25. Minnesota Vikings: 1-1

Trending- Big Dive

Full of promise after Week 1, even touted as a playoff sleeper the loss of Adrian Peterson along with a crushing loss to the Patriots has left the Vikings in a bad place. There is some hope with Teddy Bridgewater waiting in the wings to take over at QB but with AP indefinitely out this offense becomes one dimensional. Upcoming schedule- @Saints, Falcons, @Packers- This part of the schedule isn't as hard as it looked before the start of the season but they will still be fortunate to get a win from this.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers: 1-1

Trending- Steady but not inspiring

The Steelers under Mike Tomlin have been quietly disappointing, this is not a Steelers of old team. They have handled the cap really poorly over the past 5 years by extending ageing players and failing to draft well. There defense has been gashed on the ground by the Ravens and the Browns while their secondary is old. Mike Tomlin could be looking for a new job at the end of the year if they don't make the playoffs with this schedule. Upcoming schedule- @Panthers, vs Bucs, @Jags. The schedule has opened up nicely for them If they don't come out 2-1 from this they will be playing catch up with the rest of the AFC North.

23. New York Jets: 1-1

Trending- Steady but barely

Every year the Jets organisation talk themselves up as a team to fear and every year Rex Ryan and his merry men find ways to under perform. They played a fantastic game at Green Bay until they collapsed in the third quarter and called an illegal timeout which negated a tying TD. This could have been the high mark of the year considering how poorly the Raiders and Packers have been and how inevitable that Rex will turn to Mike Vick despite Geno Smiths improvements at QB. We've seen this all before people and it never works out for the Jets.

Upcoming schedule- vs Bears, vs Lions, Chargers.- The first two are winnable at home but I can't see them winning on the West Coast.

22. Miami Dolphins:1-1

Trending- Down

What we learnt about the Dolphins so far: Eight quarters played, two were great, six were terrible. Injured Knowshon Moreno IS the running game, Ryan Tannehill can't throw a deep ball. The linebackers are awful. If this team couldn't compete against the Bills than how are they going to play against the good teams? Joe Philbin has to do a better job than last week to retain his job at the end of the year.

Upcoming schedule- vs Chiefs, @Raiders, vs Packers- maybe the easiest schedule over the next three weeks. Less than two wins is unacceptable. The way the Packers have been playing they could beat them at home.

21.Tennessee Titans:1-1

Trending- Down

A promising first week followed by a bad second week means my preseason prediction of 8-8 is most likely. Locker just doesn't provide the consistency and accuracy needed to start for an NFL team. The defense may not be as bad as people thought they would be which is a positive. Upcoming schedule- @Bengals, @Colts, vs Browns- Three tough but winnable games.

20. Dallas Cowboys:1-1

Trending- Steady but never in a good way

The Cowboys may have figured out that running the ball is the best way to keep Tony Romo making mistakes. The defense has played ok considering it looked like it was going to be historically bad. That can still happen and they haven't faced a top offense yet so we will wait and see. The Cowboys are going to be extremely up and down this year so be prepared for storylines galore.

Upcoming Schedule- @Rams, vs Saints, vs Texans- Dallas could win or lose any of these games. It will be interesting to see whether the Cowboys offense can score against good Rams/Texans defenses and whether the Defense can stop the Saints.



19. Green Bay Packers: 1-1

Trending- Clinging on to prevent a precipitous drop to mediocrity.

This team is not good. Dom Capers defense can't stop anyone right now and the offensive line yet again can't protect Rodgers. They were fortunate the Jets imploded .in the second half last week because they should be 0-2 right now. This team is not a shoo in for the playoffs.

Upcoming schedule- @Lions, @Bears, vs Vikings- Three divisional games in a row, on paper they are favorites in all three but they could lose all three.

18. Chicago Bears: 1-1

Trending- Same as their divisional rivals above.

The Bears can thank Colin Kaepernick choking for not being 0-2. This team doesn't look good at all. Cutler has struggled moving the ball consistently and Matt Forte isn't being used as effectively as last year. Injures are really impacting the offensive line and wide receiver corp and  CB Charles Tillman is done for the year which is a huge blow. This team was touted to win the division this year which could happen but compared to the rest of the NFC this team looks bad.

Upcoming schedule- @Jets, vs Packers, @Panthers- If the Bears can keep a clean pocket for Cutler he can dismantle both the Jets and Panthers secondaries. Bears have to get out of this 2-1 to stay in the NFC North race.

17. Atlanta Falcons:1-1

Trending- Neither up nor down but big weaknesses.

This team is going to be in a shootout every week with one of the worst defenses in the league. They have no pass rush. Zilch. If they lose WR Julio Jones for any period of time this team is toast. Mike Smith could be looking for a new job by the end of this year, they just aren't good enough on both sides to be a playoff team.

Upcoming schedule- vs Bucs, @Vikings, @Giants- Three winnable games against teams who might not be able to capitalise on this horrendous defense.

16. Indianapolis Colts: 0-2

Trending: Pep Hamilton's offense is the opposite of trending.

This team has a serious identity crisis. They have the best young QB prospect in the league and they want to take the ball out of his hands to the biggest RB bust in years. It's like they want to prove a point that they can run the ball despite having a offensive line that can't block. And this is the best side of the ball!!!!!! The defense lost its best pass rusher before he even played a snap and can't stop the run either. The AFC South is wide open until the Colts fire Pep Hamilton and probably Chuk Pagano and GM Ryan Grigson. That's not going to happen in a hurry though.

Upcoming schedule- @Jaguars, vs Titans, vs Ravens- If they don't go at least 2-1 here they are in serious trouble.


15. Detroit Lions:1-1

Trending- Matthew Stafford and Jim Caldwell are ALWAYS trending up!!! (sarcasm)

It seems every year Stafford is touted as the next young QB to become 'elite' but I thin k he is who he is. A younger version of Jay Cutler, a gunslinger who doesn't strive to improve. He does well against poor defenses and struggles against good ones. The defense isn't going to help after they failed to improve the secondary for what seems like a millennium. Overrated QB, underwhelming coach= 8-8 team even in a bad NFC North.

Upcoming schedule- vs Packers, @Jets, vs Bills- They will rate themselves against all these teams but will probably only win one of them.

14. New Orleans Saints: 0-2

Trending- Lowly

Losing both games in the last 10 seconds has to hurt this teams chances of winning the NFC like many pundits predicted in the preseason. I never bought into this defense being elite. Rob Ryan has never coached a Top 10 Defense in his NFL career, he's not going to start now. This team can't seem to win away from home which is a problem considering half their games are away. They are in a real battle with the Panthers to win this division.

Upcoming schedule- vs Vikings, @Cowboys, vs Bucs- Anything short of 3-0 would be disastrous for this team.

13. Baltimore Ravens: 1-1

Trending- Slightly up.

The Ravens started of sluggishly but should improve as the offense gets more accustomed to Gary Kubiaks new system. The defense is getting guys back from injury and Steve Smith has given Flacco that intermediate target that he's missed since Anquan Boldin was not resigned.

Upcoming schedule- @Browns, vs Panthers, @Colts- Three tough matches but the Ravens should come out 2-1.

12.Houston Texans: 2-0

Trending: The stench of Matt Schaub is off!

Bill O'Brien's side has had an easy start of the seaon but they are looking fresh and a tough match for any team this year. Arian Foster looks great behind a rejuvenated O Line and the defense looks like it's going to turnover the ball and limit the opposition scoring. They will need to do that because if they can't Ryan Fitzpatrick can't be relied on to lead this team to victories.

Upcoming schedule- @Giants, vs Bills, vs Cowboys- Three winnable games, they have a real chance to jump out to a 5-0 start.

11.  Buffalo Bills: 2-0

Trending- Unfortunately it probably won't get much higher then this.

One of the surprising teams so far, they have done a great job of controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and creating turnovers. This won't continue forever and when it comes time for E.J Manual to lead them from behind to try and win the results are going to be depressing. It was fun while it lasted though!

Upcoming schedule- vs Chargers, @Texans, @Lions- The Chargers should be a good measuring stick for this team. If they can beat them who knows? I see 1-2 here.


10. Philadelphia Eagles- 2-0

Trending- Still undecided.

This Eagles team has had to make historical comebacks to win both games. It's not an encouraging sign they are starting slow and that Nick Foles is missing wide open receivers. The good news is that Darren Sproles looks like the FA signing of the year and they are still in the NFC East. They could have this division wrapped up pretty early if the rest of the division keeps imploding.

Upcoming schedule- vs Washington D.C, @49ers, vs Rams- 3-0 is achievable with the 49ers looking shaky at the moment.


9. Cleveland Browns: 1-1

Trending- Up which almost guarantees next week it will be down because the Browns can never have nice things.

In the preseason I was proclaiming that the Browns defense was going to be Top 5 this year under Mike Pettine  so it's nice to see that coming true. The running game looks very strong with the two rookie RB's behind an excellent line. If Brian Hoyer can continue to manage the game until Josh Gordon gets back this team maybe in the hunt for the AFC North title. Never get your hopes up with the Browns though, something is bound to go wrong.

Upcoming schedule- vs Ravens, BYE, @ Titans- To be taken seriously this year they have to beat the Ravens.


8. San Francisco 49ers: 1-1

Trending: Down and sneakily a plummet candidate.

Since the Cowboys self destructed in the first quarter of Game 1 the 49ers haven't been the dominant side we have known over the past couple of years. The way that Kaepernick blew the Bears game was really disturbing. Despite all their draft picks over the past two years this team is short of depth at all levels on defense. Jim Harbaugh's weird personality can be tolerated while winning but I get the feeling that the players and management are getting tired of his antics. I'm still predicting he moves on at the end of this year.

Upcoming schedule- @Cardinals, vs Eagles, vs Chiefs- The 49ers don't have to beat the Cardinals but they have to at least show they can play a whole 60 min. I see 2-1.

7. Arizona Cardinals: 2-0

Trending- Up but leveling out

I have been impressed by the Cardinals resilience considering the losses they have had to deal with before the season even began. The defense is without Darnell Dockett, Daryl Washington and John Abraham and they still look like a very good unit. Credit goes to coordinator Todd Bowles for keeping this team humming. The bigger issue is whether Carson Palmer can come back from a nerve injury that prevented him playing last week. Drew Stanton doesn't cut it as a starting QB.

Upcoming schedule- vs 49ers, BYE, @Broncos. Two tough games may see them back to .500 but the bye comes at a good time.

6. Carolina Panthers: 2-0

Trending- Up

The most surprising team for me so far. I was expecting a large drop off this year with the multitude of losses they had in the offseason but they just carried on from last year. This defense really is one of the best in the NFL and WR Kelvin Benjamin looks like an instant contributor which can help Cam Newton. They are in the drivers seat to win the NFC South again after the Saints poor start.

Upcoming schedule- vs Steelers, @ Ravens, vs Bears- Three good but flawed teams, the Panthers should go 2-1 if their defense continues to play at such a high level.

5. New England Patriots: 1-1

Trending- Back to normal

Apart from one half where the Patriots got blown out in hot conditions they don't look bad. They don't look great but they do start slow and build as the season goes. The defense looks like it could be very good if they can stay healthy. The offense looks rusty and out of practice but there is still plenty of time for Brady to gel with his receivers.

Upcoming schedule- vs Raiders, @ Chiefs, vs Bengals- The Bengals could provide a stiff test but the Patriots should still go 3-0 in this stretch.

4. Cincinnati Bengals: 2-0

Trending- Up

Another team I am surprised is looking so good is the Bengals. What we have learnt over the past three years though is that it means nothing until the Andy Dalton led Bengals can win a playoff game. He is also going to face better defenses in the regular season and the loss of Marvin Jones, Tyler Eifert and perhaps AJ Green for an extended period time has to hurt this team.

Upcoming schedule- vs Titans, BYE, @Patriots- A win against the Titans will suffice.

3. San Diego Chargers: 1-1

Trending- Sneaky high.

I don't think Mike McCoy and the Chargers are getting enough credit for how well this side has played since he took over last year. They are controlling the possession and playing stifling defense. Beating the world champions at their own game was a sign that they will indeed be a genuine threat for the Broncos this year in the AFC West.

Upcoming schedule- @Bills, vs Jaguars, vs Jets- I see three wins here despite travelling to the Bills. All three teams don't have good QB's who can not turn over the ball.

2. Denver Broncos: 2-0

Trending- Meh

The Broncos have been somewhat disappointing thus far. Peyton Manning doesn't seem to be on the same page with his WR's and Montee Ball has been bad in the run game despite a good offensive line creating holes. The defense also looks weak especially with the linebacking corp faced with several injuries. They are finding out what it's like to have a tougher schedule to last years cakewalk.

Upcoming schedule- @ Seahawks, BYE, vs Arizona- I think they are going to get destroyed again by the Seahawks with that home field advantage and Arizona are a good football team so nothing is a given this year for the Broncos.

1. Seattle Seahawks: 1-1

Trending- A we bit lower than usual but not enough to knock them off the perch.

I don't take too much away from the Chargers loss on the Seahawks side, they were just beaten by a better team on the day. It says a lot that they still had a chance to win the game at the end despite having very little of possession. The defense doesn't look as good as last year but it's still a Top 3 unit. Russell Wilson looks fantastic which means the Seahawks might not have to rely on the defense to win them games this year.

Upcoming schedule- vs Broncos, BYE, @Washinton D.C- 2-0 and still the No.1 in the power rankings.

Always enjoy your feedback.



Tuesday, 16 September 2014

Week 3 Waiver Wire Pickups

I don't think I can remember so many injuries to key players after such a

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins, Washington D.C-  RGIII's run with injuries continues as he dislocated his ankle,with the likelihood that he will miss the rest of the season. Cousins came in and immediately looked comfortable in Jay Grudens offense throwing for 250 yards and two scores without turning over the ball. Many were saying he was looking better than RGIII during the preseason so the drop off to Cousins may not be that bad. He did he look terrible last year when he came into play so he's more likely a lowend No.2 QB dependent on matchups. His schedule does look tasty though, he still has all 6 NFC East games left as well as the Titans, Bucs and Colts in Weeks 7,11 and 13 respectfully. In 16-team/2QB leagues he is a must add.

Other QB notes- EJ Manual and Geno Smith have both started well this season but they aren't reliable enough to be valid fantasy options. The Bills are trying to limit the amount of throws Manual because he has been terribly inaccurate and Smith is prone to turnovers and Eric Decker is nursing a hamstring injury as well. Drew Stanton looked bad vs the Giants and despite a good match up this week vs a weak 49ers secondary he can't be trusted yet. In deep leagues he's worth a speculative pickup only because Carson Palmer's nerve injury could keep him out for multiple weeks but he isn't startable.

Running Backs

Knile Davis, Kansas City Chiefs- If the Jamaal Charles owner was foolish enough not to have Davis on their squad then you should capitalise on that mistake. Although Charles high ankle sprain is reported to be not to bad, he could miss a couple of weeks which would make Davis at least a No.2 RB. After going over 100 all purpose yards and scoring two TD's against the Broncos he will face a Dolphins defense who let the Bills run over 100 yards against them. They also have one of the worst LB corps in the NFL despite spending big money on that position last offseason. With the Chiefs short of any receiving threat outside of TE Travis Kelce, Andy Reid is going to use his RB's a lot in the passing game.

Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts- MNF last night just reiterated to the world what we already knew about Trent Richardson, he's just not good. Two fumbles from him may result in Pep Hamilton giving more of the carries to the better back in Bradshaw who had a great game with 96 all purpose yards yards and two receiving TD's. Bradshaw probably won't last the season as he is injury prone but he offers a far superior week by week fantasy option then Richardson will. Bradshaw now becomes a good flex option 12 team leagues and a low end No.2 option in PPR. The Colts also have two good match ups vs the Jags and the Titans so take the chance because you know Richardson is not going to get it done.

Donald Brown, San Diego Chargers, Khiry Robinson New Orleans Saints- There are few things more consistent than Ryan Matthews and Mark Ingram getting injured during the season. This year it came very early with both suffering injuries which will knock them out for at least a month. This leaves the featured back role open in two good offenses. Both Brown and Robinson become automatic RB3/flex options with RB2 upside. Danny Woodhead and Pierre Thomas will siphon off carries on 3rd down but that still leaves a lot of work for these two. Robinson has a great three matches coming up-  vs Vikings, @ Cowboys, vs Buccaneers. Yes please.

Bob Rainey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Despite Rainey going crazy against the Rams for 144 yards on 6.5 ypc he isn't in an ideal situation. The Bucs offensive line could be the worst in the league and Doug Martin is slated to come back soon from his knee injury. Rainey does get to face the Falcons defense this week that allowed the Bengals to run for 170 yards and two scores. Pick him up if you are in need of a desperation play this week but don't expect much going forward.

Other RB notes- The hyped Dolphins running game is falling apart before it got going, losing Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller to injury this week. They resigned Daniel Thomas but he is not worth a pick up despite facing the Chiefs at home this week. Jeremy Hill is worth a stash on your roster if he's available. Could be a good flex option with the way the Bengals are run blocking and the injuries at wide receiver. If Bernard goes down he is a No.1 RB. Isaiah Crowell should also be owned in every league despite Terrance West carrying the most for the Browns at the moment. Crowell looks good when he touches the ball. If there is an injury to West he would also be a low end No 1 RB with upside.

Wide Receivers

Mohammed Sanu, Cincinaati Bengals- AJ Green is looking like he is out for this weeks game, along with Marvin Jones out with a broken foot which means Sanu is the next best option. They play the Titans who struggled to contain the Cowboys last week. Their best CB Jason McCourty also got injured which would help Sanu as well.

Andrew Hawkins, Cleveland Browns- If he's still on waivers in your PPR leagues then he should be the No.1 priority. TE Jordan Camerons injury has meant Hawkins is the go to guy for sort yardage throws for Hoyer. Guaranteed 8-12 targets a game and he can get open in short spaces.

Brian Quick, St Louis Rams- One of the biggest surprises fantasy wise has that Quick has looked good these first 2 games after two years of nothing. Austin Davis is throwing his way often. He's worth a look as a bye week replacement in the future.

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers- That's two weeks now that Jarrett Boykin looked bad after only grabbing one catch for 5 yards against a poor Jets secondary. Rookie Adams though picked up 5 for 50 and had a couple of good runs after the catch. Maybe the Packers turn to Adams sooner than expected. He's worth a pickup as the No.3 WR spot on the Packers has been a viable flex option recently.

Andre Roberts, Washington D.C- If DeSean Jackson continues too struggle with his shoulder injury that knocked him out last weekend Roberts could see an up tick in targets. A good route runner and safe hands Cousins might get a connection going.

Other WR notes- Allen Robinson and Cecil Shorts could be the starting WR's for the Jags for the foreseeable future. Add them but don't expect much from them until they start Blake Bortles and sort out the O Line woes. James Jones had a great box score but he got most of his fantasy points in garbage time. Stay away from this Raiders offense, especially with them travelling to the Patriots this week.

Tight Ends 

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs- He should have been picked up last week but he's still available in the majority of fantasy redraft leagues. The Chiefs have to realise he is the only deep ball threat in this offense and they need to get him the ball more then four times. He's facing a Miami Dolphins D who don't have a LB to cover his speed, so if Andy Reid doesn't screw this up he could be in for a good game.

Niles Paul, Washinton D.C- 8 catches for 99 yards and a TD. I think it's safe to say that Cousins trusts Paul. Jordan Redd isn't returning from injury anytime soon so add Paul with confidence.

Larry Donnell, N.Y Giants- It really says something about the woes of the Giants right now that a TE we didn't know exist two weeks ago is Eli Manning's most reliable target right now. Donnell is going to get targets which is all you can ask for from a waiver wire TE. A high end No.2 TE right now if this continues.


Other TE notes- If you are desperate Owen Daniels could be pickup in a Gary Kubiak system which uses 2 TE sets a lot in and targets them in the red zone.

Happy waiver wire hunting!









Friday, 12 September 2014

Start em Sit em Week 2

Start em Sit em Week 2


Week 1 of the NFL season is in the books providing surprises as usual. Two of the top three picks in fantasy drafts were duds (LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles) while undrafted players like Allen Hurns and Isaiah Crowell had big games. Week 2 is a good time to see whether trends will continue from the first week or they are anomalies.

One note about my article- I'm not going to write about obvious starts, you're obviously going to start your Peyton Manning's, LeSean McCoy's and Calvin Johnson's every week. These start em sit ems will be highlighting the players below the elite tiers where you have two or three options around the same level to choose from.
Without further ado:

Start em QB's


Jake Locker vs Cowboys- Ken Whisenhunt has done a great job maximizing his QB production over the years and Locker could be the latest to succeed under his tutelage. Facing the porous Cowboys defense at home Locker should have plenty of time to throw down field to Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter and Delanie Walker. The Cowboys offense should be more competitive this week so expect a shootout which is potentially good for Lockers stats.

I would start him over- Jay Cutler @ 49ers.

Andy Dalton vs Falcons- Dalton has been a very good fantasy option at home over the past year. He faces a great matchup against a Falcons side who can't stop the pass. Another high scoring matchup.

I would start him over-  Russell Wilson @ Chargers, Carson Palmer @ Giants

Tony Romo @ Titans- Let's give Romo a mulligan. The Cowboys were completely unprepared for the the 49ers last week. They have too many good players on the offense for Romo not to be productive unless he is still recovering from his back injury. If he doesn't produce this week it maybe time to change our expectations of him as a No.1 Fantasy QB.

I would start him over Tom Brady @ Vikings,

Deep League/Desperation play-

Ryan Fitzpatrick @ Raiders- Geno Smith managed to look OK vs the Raiders in Week 1 which means Fitzpatrick should be able to surpass his numbers with better weapons around him. In  a 16 team or 2 QB leagues Fitzpatrick should be considered over the likes of Josh McCown, Smith and even Phillip Rivers.

Sit em QB's


Jay Cutler @ 49ers- With injuries to two offensive lineman and his two best Wr's, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey, Cutler is worth a sit this week away in San Francisco. Look for the Bears to utilise Matt Forte in the running game more against a run defense which was exposed by the Cowboys last week. The schedule gets better for Cutler later but this week there are better options.

RGIII vs Jaguars- It looks like an enticing matchup but the truth is RGIII is not the player he was in his rookie year. He has no confidence in running away from pressure or hanging in the pocket and throwing it deep. His game looks to be check downs to RB's and TE's which doesn't produce fantasy points . The Jags D Line isn't bad so they should be able to put up enough pressure on RGIII to keep him off his game. Until he shows you he can get out of this rut he should be on your bench.

Phillip Rivers vs Seahawks- If they can shutdown Aaron Rodgers....

Cam Newton vs Lions- Despite facing a Lions D with an awful secondary I would avoid Newton who is nursing several injuries and maybe rusty. Could take him a couple of weeks to get into form.


Start em RB's

Shane Vereen @ Vikings- The fact that he got goal line work and scored from within 5 yards is significant. Vereen saw the majority of the reps over Ridley and this should continue. He's more valuable in PPR leagues but I think he will be a solid mid No.2 RB in standard for the rest of the year if he can stay healthy. Tom Brady needs his security blanket.

Shonn Greene vs Cowboys- Fantasy Football Rule No.1- start all RB's against the Cowboys this year. Greene was effective vs the Chiefs last week so going for 71 yards on 15 carries. Although he he won't catch passes out of the backfield he will get goal line opportunities, which could be a lot this week. A solid No.2 RB this week.


Frank Gore AND Carlos Hyde vs Bears- Well it looks like the Bears run defense hasn't improved from last year. The Bills gashed them for large gains on the ground and they aren't as good as the 49ers. Gore had a disappointing stat line against the Cowboys, losing a goal line TD to Hyde. However the game was over before it really began so I think the 49ers decided to rest Gore. The Bears game should be closer so expect Gore to see more carries and TD opportunities. He's a high end No.2 this week while Hyde is a good flex option.

Terrance West vs Saints- The loss of Ben Tate inevitably to injury means West gets the start in a what is going to be a very good running team with plenty of opportunities. The Saints defense was trumped up before the season as a potential Top 5 but I never saw it that way, they struggle away from home especially. If the Browns defense can limit Drew Brees then West and fellow rookie Isaiah Crowell will see a lot of work.

Sleeper- Ahmad Bradshaw vs Eagles- I hope people are realizing that Trent Richardson is a bust and shouldn't be started until a change in scheme. Pep Hamilton's power running scheme doesn't suit the personnel and really limits this offense. Bradshaw is the 3rd down back who is going to catch a lot of passes out of the backfield. For that reason he has more fantasy value than Richardson, especially in PPR leagues.

Sit em RB's

Joique Bell & Reggie Bush @ Panthers- Over the last seven games the Panthers have not given up a rushing touchdown.That's not to say that Bell and Bush could get a receiving touchdown but it's not something to bet on against this elite front seven. Bell especially is reliant on TD's to make him fantasy relevant so avoid starting him.

Ryan Matthews vs Seahawks-

The Hawks made Eddie Lacy largely ineffective last week, the same will occur to Matthews.

Zac Stacy @ Buccaneers-

If Austin Davis is going to be starting QB for the Rams you can guarantee the the Bucs will stack at 8 men in the box and dare Davis to beat them through the air. This along with Benny Cunningham siphoning off carries means Stacy is quickly looking like one of the bigger RB busts this year.

Steven Jackson @ Bengals- Despite Jackson running well in week one the Falcons are now a four back committee. Antone Smith, Jacquizz Rodgers and Devonta Freeman all bring their own skills and strengths to this running game which leaves fantasy owners trying to guess which one will produce the most. Avoid this situation until it's clarified through injuries.

Start em WR's

Michael Floyd @ Giants- The Giants couldn't stop Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate so start Floyd with confidence as a low end No.1 WR. Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown can be options for you as well but Floyd looks to be well and truly the No.1 target in the Cardinals offense.

Kendall Wright & Justin Hunter vs Cowboys- Wright only needs one more TD to match last years total while Hunter was targeted the most out of all the Titans wideouts which bodes well for him. Whisenhunt's offense can make both of these guys productive. 

Brandin Cooks & Marques Colston @ Browns- The Saints seemed to have picked an immediate rookie contributor in Cooks who flummoxed the Falcons secondary last week. Both him and Colston are movable chess pieces who can exploit opponents weaknesses in coverage. The Browns have Joe Haden at one CB but the other two spots occupied by Justin Gilbert and Buster Skrines are areas where the Saints can exploit.

Kelvin Benjamin vs Lions- The first week against the Bucs only confirmed to everyone that outside of Greg Olson, Benjamin is the only viable fantasy WR on the Panthers roster. He can physically overpower CB's despite his raw route running abilities. The Lions secondary will pose no threat for him this week.

Jarrett Boykin vs Jets- Boykin was sacrificed last week to the demi-CB god Richard Sherman. The Jets secondary could be the worst in the league. Boykin is a solid No.3 WR this week and going forward.

TY Hilton & Reggie Wayne vs Eagles- If Allen Hurns can burn Cary Williams for 2 scores and 110 yards then Hilton and Wayne will have a field day. Wayne and Hilton were targeted 13 and 11 times respectively against the Broncos, Luck is looking to them first and foremost. Start with confidence.

Andrew Hawkins vs Saints- Hoyer needs somebody to throw to. Hawkins can get open in the short-intermediate areas with his quickness and change of direction. In PPR leagues Hawkins is going to be a solid No.3 the whole year as long as he can stay healthy.

Sit em WR's

Victor Cruz vs Cardinals- The Giants outside of Rashad Jennings can not be trusted fantasy options. Cruz has the talent to be a No.1 WR but this offense is so disjointed and he's facing Patrick Peterson this week. Thankfully will face six games in the NFC East this year but he's not going to be match up proof like you hoped when you drafted him.

Keenan Allen vs Seahawks- The next to experience the Seahawks secondary experience starring Richard Sherman, Byron Maxwell and Earl Thomas making him irrelevant for a game. I would strongly consider dropping him this week.

DeSean Jackson vs Jaguars- His fantasy value is limited by an  Offensive Line unable to protect the QB long enough and RGIII's timidness to throw downhill. Those two factors means Jackson is a very hit and miss fantasy option. Until RGIII shows something you can't trust any of Washington's WR's outside of Garcon.

Danny Amendola @ Vikings- Amendola looked slow and sluggish through the preseason and now a poor start in Week 1 in a favorable matchup is a major red flag. Julian Edleman is obviously Brady's most trusted target outside of Rob Gronkowski and Shane Vereen. Outside of that their maybe very little fantasy value until Aaron Dobson returns from injury.

Start em TE's

Dwayne Allen vs Eagles- If you are an owner of Jordan Cameron or Jordan Reed  this would be a great replacement. Allen, not Coby Fleener is the TE to own in the Colts. You are going to see a lot of 5  receptions for 64 yards and a TD stat lines from him this year. Luck trusts him in the red zone and he doesn't go off the field as he's the best blocking TE in the team. He's going to be a mid to low end No.1 this season for a team that will need to score at least 30 points a week to win.

Delanie Walker vs Cowboys- The LB corp of the Cowboys is atrocious while the safeties will have to help the CB's cover Wright and Hunter on the outside. Walker could be in store for a nice outing this week.

Sleeper- Larry Donnell vs Cardinals- I f you are truly desperate for TE help Donnell could produce something against a Cardinals defense who have trouble stopping TE's. With Eli Manning struggling with his outside throws he may turn to Donnell as much as he did in Week 1.

Sit em TE's

Eric Ebron @ Panthers- Ebron was over drafted in leagues, he was never going to see the targets that people expected him to have where Johnson,Tate,Bush and Bell are all ahead of him. No catches from three targets doesn't inspire confidence to be even a desperation flex.


Start em DST's

Houston Texans @ Raiders- JJ Watt vs rookie Derek Carr? Yes please.

Green Bay Packers vs Jets- Geno Smith is not good people, he just faced  the worst team in the world and he looked OK. The Packers have an extra half week to prepare for him and will be smarting after being demolished by the Seahawks offense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs St Louis Rams- Both defenses should feast on the inept other side of the ball.










Sunday, 7 September 2014

Over/Under 2014 NFL Season Preview

Regular Seasonal Win Totals

Arizona Cardinals- 7.5- OVER- Despite the growing list of injured/suspended defensive players I think the improvements on the offensive side should see this team get to .500.

Atlanta Falcons- 8.5- UNDER- The schedule is not as easy as it should be for a bottom six team. The Falcons will face a lot of good defensive teams and their defense is one of the worst in the league.

Baltimore Ravens- 8.5- OVER- I'm a believer in Gary Kubiaks offensive system. If he can make Joe Flacco an average QB this team can be very good. The run game should be much improved as well. Winner of the AFC North.

Buffalo Bills- 6.5- UNDER- This team has 2013 Texans/Bucs meltdown written all over it. Desperate coach sticking by terrible QB= fired by the end of the season.

Carolina Panthers- 7.5-UNDER- Remember after four weeks last year when Ron Rivera was on the verge of being fired? This team somehow got to 12-4 on the back of 2 division rivals collapsing and a elite defense. This year though the holes are too large on the offense and defense to cover. No Left tackle, no WR outside Kelvin Benjamin, an injured Cam Newton, no secondary and a stronger schedule=massive drop off in wins.

Chicago Bears- 8.5- OVER- The Bears look set for a breakout year with an elite offense but you can never trust Jay Cutler to stay healthy for a whole season. Also the defense still has issues at linebacker and safety. The Bears don't have a hard schedule outside of the division but I can't see them getting more then 10 wins if things go there way.

Cincinaati Bengals- 9.5-UNDER- The Bengals had one of the worst off seasons in my opinion, resigning Andy Dalton to a massive contract and losing def coordinator Mike Zimmer. Add this to the fact that their division rivals all improved I don't see the Bengals making the playoffs this year. Dalton just can't get them past good opposition.

Cleveland Browns- 6.5- UNDER- The Browns offseason was a mixture of good and calamity as only the Browns no how to do. They selected some very good prospects in this years draft but they made two colossal mistakes. The first was not selecting a single WR in what was widely known as one of the deepest WR drafts in NFL history even though they knew Josh Gordon was facing suspension for substance abuse. The second was selecting Johnny Manziel instead of Teddy Bridgewater. This pick smelt of the owner stepping in and making the pick for purely news worthy reasons. Manziel is a character concern who's game will not translate in the NFL if he doesn't change his stripes (highly doubtful). With no competent QB and WR on this roster it's going to be very difficult for this team to score this year. The defense could be a Top-5 unit but it won't matter if the offense can't score.

Dallas Cowboys- 7.5- UNDER- Seriously Jerry Jones has to be one of the worst GM's in the NFL in terms of cap management. He has somehow managed to overspend on the wrong players over and over which has led to a team today which looks Top 5 on one side and the worst unit in football on the other. This defense is devoid of playmakers at any level and will struggle to contain any team. If Tony Romo goes down this team could potentially be vying for the No.1 overall pick next year.

Denver Broncos- 11.5-OVER- The Broncos should be just as good offensively but their defense looks much improved with the additions of Talib, Ward and Ware. The linebacking group looks the weakest part of this team but a team led by P Manning shouldn't worry about conceding a few points.Unless you're facing the Seahawks of course.

Detroit Lions- 8.5- UNDER- I don't understand why the line is so high. The most uninspiring head coach hiring (Jim Caldwell) to somehow lead an overrated QB and a ill disciplined defense in an incredibly competitive division.  They did nothing to shore up the weakest part of their team, the secondary, in the draft yet spent their first pick on a TE after resigning Branden Pettigrew to big money. No sense in this organisation. Caldwell is not the answer for this team and I am seeing a meltdown on par with the Falcons, Texans, Bucs occurring.

Green Bay Packers-10.5- UNDER- Every year the Packers are rated as one of the elite teams and every year they disappoint. Injuries always seem to plague the Packers despite being quoted as one of the deepest rosters in the NFL. The O Line especially is over rated and does Aaron Rodgers no favors. This division is going to be a lot tougher this year so I don't think it's a given that they win the division. 10 wins but not sure of that will be enough in the NFC North.

Houston Texans- 7.5- OVER- Things can't get worse can they? Well if Ryan Fitzpatrick is your starting QB then maybe. If Arian Foster can stay healthy this team can ride him on offense while the defense should be vastly improved with JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney as your pass rush. A last placed schedule also helps. Could give the Colts a run for the division.

Indianapolis Colts- 9.5- UNDER- The Colts may have the weakest roster in the NFL apart form that all important position at QB. Head coach Chuck Pagano and off coordinator Pep Hamilton are on the hot seat as they have been ineffective in their game planning.They have struggled to fit their schemes to their personnel and this may cost them the division and ultimately their jobs. They have the worst defense and the maybe the worst O Line in the division. That's not a recipe for repeating success. 8-8 or 9-7.

Jacksonville Jaguars-5- OVER- I like how the Jags finished last year, especially the defensive side of the ball. The addition of Chris Clemons and Red Bryant will only help this unit. I am quite bullish on the chances of rookie QB Blake Bortles being the real deal. It's only a matter of time until Chad Henne gets dropped to give the rookie a chance to show what he's got this season. The Jags will surprise a lot of people this year with their competitiveness and could be fighting for the division this year. 7-9.

Kansas City Chiefs- 8- UNDER- The Panthers of the AFC last year, they had an absurdly easy schedule against backup QB's which meant they fluked their way to 11-5 and the playoffs. This year they won't be so lucky with a tougher schedule against the NFC West. Their squad got noticeably worse on offense. Their receiving corp maybe the worst in the NFL and the O Line isn't that much better. The defensive front 7 is very strong but the secondary has major issues as well. This team is going to struggle to make it to .500.

Miami Dolphins-7.5- OVER- I don't trust the Dolphins O Line or QB Ryan Tannehill for that matter but how much worse could it get compared to last year? This team is always talked up as having potential but maybe people have to wake up to the fact that Joe Philbin is not a capable coach and Ryan Tannehill is not a good QB. This team was poorly constructed and with major holes at RB and LB. I just can't see this team getting a wildcard spot let alone beating the New England Patriots.

Minnesota Vikings-6.5- OVER- The Vikings had the best offseason in my opinion. Hiring Mike Zimmer has head coach, Norv Turner as offensive coordinator and selecting QB Teddy Bridgewater. All three of these moves instantly make the Vikings a sleeper team to win the NFC North this year. Zimmer will make this defense very strong while Turner has tons of weapons to use. Despite the tough start of the season this team should be in the run to win 8-10 wins and fighting for a wildcard position if not the division.

New England Patriots- 11-OVER- So this team was decimated by injuries to several key players and they still won 12 games? Taking the over by a lot. With the return of players like Wilfork, Mayo, Gronkowski and the FA signing of Darell Revis this team is going to be tougher to beat this year. Bill Belichick has the best defense he has coached in a decade which only spells trouble for the rest of the league. I have them going at least 14-2 and winning the Super Bowl. They have been so close without a good defense for years, now that they have one they have to be considered big contenders.

New Orlean Saints- 10.5- OVER- The Saints have been a trendy Super Bowl bound team this year but I can't see how they can get past the Seahawks. Their secondary is the very overrated with the additions of Jairus Byrd and Champ Bailey who got cut. Byrd can't stay healthy but they gave him a massive contract. Also the division won't be as easy as last year so I can't see them wining home field playoff  advantage they would need to even have a chance against the Seahawks. They are a good team but they still aren't a match for physical teams they will meet in the NFC playoffs.

New York Giants- 8- UNDER- Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning have to be one of the most overrated coach/QB pairs ever. Apart from winning 2 Super Bowls on the back of a playoff hot streak by the defensive unit these two have been average for a long time. Their 7-9 record last year hid the fact they were out of the playoffs halfway through the season. Coughlin should have been fired this offseason but loyalty to him and Eli means the Giants waste another year before they admit they need replacements at both positions. The Giants just don't seem to have the fight to win matches until it's too late in the season.

New York Jets-7- UNDER- This is the year that Rex Ryan finally gets found out for being a terrible head coach. He has a fantastic defensive mind but as shown complete disdain for the offensive side of the ball. He has failed to develop one decent offensive skill position player in his time with the Jets, something which doesn't get enough publicity. Now with a squad lacking talent on both sides the Jets are really going to struggle to be competitive this year. The secondary especially looks atrocious they won't stop anyone throwing. Re Ryan will be looking for another job by the end of the year. 4-6 wins this year.

Oakland Raiders- 5- UNDER- GM Reggie McKenzie and head coach Dennis Allen effectively ended their contracts with the Raiders when they tried to convince the NFL and the fans that Matt Schaub was the answer to the teams QB woes. Any sane person realised that Schaub was done after his meltdown with the Texans last year. Schaub isn't even starting Week 1, instead going with rookie Derek Carr who is nowhere near ready to face NFL defenses. It doesn't help they face the toughest schedule in the NFL either but this team just doesn't have elite talent anywhere on the roster. This team will most likely have the No.1 pick in next years draft along with a new head coach and GM.

Philadelphia Eagles- 9- OVER- Chip Kelly has done a great job quickly turning around this franchise and making it the top of the division. Offensively they are one of the best in the league while the defense should be improved. Despite the tougher schedule this year the fact that the division is so bad should see the Eagles reach ten wins.

Pittsburgh Steelers- 8.5- OVER- A disappointing 8-8 last year highlighted the fact that this team aren't the powerhouses that they are used to being. Mike Tomlin has done an average job since he became head coach and maybe on the hot seat if the team performs as poorly this year. The defensive side got some much needed additions from the draft including linebacker Ryan Shazier who looks like he will contribute immediately. On the offensive side Leveon Bell needs to get as many touches as possible as he is the all purpose RB they have been seeking since Jerome Bettis retired. I think the Steelers will make the playoffs again through a wildcard. 9-10 wins.

San Diego Chargers-8- OVER- Last year I picked the Chargers to make a wildcard spot and was proven correct by the slimmest of margins. Mike McCoy did a remarkable job of turning one of the weakest rosters in the NFL into a team which gave the Denver Broncos a real challenge in the division. With improvements on defense this team has a real chance in contending the Broncos this year with their run first, time consuming offense. 9-10 wins and a wildcard is in their reach.

San Francisco 49ers-10.5- UNDER- I get the feeling that the 49ers on the brink of some major changes by the end of this year. Jim Harbaugh seems to move on from places every 3-5 years and is difficult to get on with. The roster has seen some major hits with injuries and suspensions as well and along with a tough division and schedule I see the 49ers struggling to pick up a wildcard position. 8-9 wins.

Seattle Seahawks- 11- OVER- The reigning Super Bowl champs didn't lose anyone integral in the offseason so the team should carry on their domination of teams with their physical brand of football. The scariest part about this team is the fact Russell Wilson can get better and that Percy Harvin comes back from missing the entire regular season. With homefield advantage in playoffs most likely it's hard to see this team not getting to the Super Bowl. 13 wins.

St Louis Rams-6.5-UNDER- If the Rams could go 7-9 with Kellen Clemons as QB last year they can reach that at least with Shaun Hill. Their defense looks formidable with Gregg Williams dialing up aggressive blitzes this team will be a tough team to beat. However the team will always be limited by the fact that Brian Schottenheimer is still the OC here despite showing the creativity or competency for that job. 8-8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 7- OVER- If Greg Schiano wasn't so toxic a coach this teams record would have been far better last year. Thankfully Lovie Smith is far more competent as a HC and should put turn this team around immediately. They have the personal to be an elite defense with the likes of Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David and Mark Barron. The offense has some intriguing pieces but it depends on whether the offensive line can hold up to allow Josh McCown to throw downfield to his tall receivers. I have the Bucs coming second in the division and vying for a wildcard spot.

Tennessee Titans- 7- OVER- I like the move for Ken Whisenhunt and i'm a believer he can turn this team into a playoff contender this year. It all depends on whther Jake Locker can stay healthy. If he can I think this offense has the receiving threats to go against their division rivals. The defense is a work in progress but it can't get much worse. 8-9 wins and fighting for the division.

Washington D.C- 7.5- UNDER- Not a fan of RGIII as a QB, he hasn't developed into a pocket passer, turning into the right handed version of Mike Vick. If Jay Gruden's last name wasn't so he wouldn't get a sniff of a head coaching role. Along with the fact that the defense is terrible this team is looking at another bad season. 6 wins.




AFC North Champ- Baltimore Ravens
AFC East Champ- New England Patriots
AFC South Champ- Indianapolis Colts
AFC West Champ- Denver Broncos
Wildcard spots- San Diego Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers

NFC North Champ- Minnesota Vikings
NFC East Champ- Philadelphia Eagles
NFC South Champ- New Orleans Saints
NFC West Champ- Seattle Seahawks
Wildcard spots- Tampa Bay Bucs, Green Bay Packers

AFC Championship- New England Patriots over Denver Broncos
NFC Championship- Seattle Seahawks over New Orleans Saints

Super Bowl- New England over the Seattle Seahawks


Bottom 5- Oakland Raiders, Buffalo Bills, NY Jets, Detroit Lions, NY Giants